Reply With Quote
Its a long article and im at work. But Ill try and update the thread whenever I can over the next hour or so.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.
How Future Power Rating Is Determined
PLAYERS (0 to 400 points): Current players and their potential for the future, factoring in expected departuresMANAGEMENT (0 to 200 points): Quality and stability of front office, ownership, coachingMONEY (0 to 200 points): Projected salary-cap situation; ability and willingness to exceed cap and pay luxury taxMARKET (0 to 100 points): Appeal to future acquisitions, based on team quality, franchise reputation, city's desirability as a destination, market size, taxes, business and entertainment opportunities, arena quality, fansDRAFT (0 to 100 points): Future draft picks; draft positioningCATEGORY RANKINGS: See how each team ranked in each category
Consider this a convenient way to see in what direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expected each team to perform in the three seasons following this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category was a team's current players and the future potential of those players -- that category accounted for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
To reach our ratings in each category, we talked to teams to get a handle on their future strategies, we looked at their contractual commitments and we carefully broke down each roster to figure out which players would improve, which would decline and which would likely depart.
We expect these rankings to evolve as the season moves along, trades are made, injuries occur, strategies shift, and so on. Return from time to time as we update the rankings.
Here are our current rankings, from 1 to 30:
1. Portland Trail Blazers | Future Power Rating: 688
PLAYERS 354 (2nd) MANAGEMENT 153 (3rd) MONEY 92 (17th) MARKET 53 (12th) DRAFT 37 (23rd)
On paper, no other team possesses as bright a future as the Portland Trail Blazers. It all starts with the players. Nobody, not even Oklahoma City, can match the stable of young talent the Blazers have built. Brandon Roy is already a superstar, and joining him are potential stars like LaMarcus Aldridge (24), Greg Oden (21, even if he looks more like 51), Nicolas Batum (20) and Martell Webster (22). That doesn't even count the other assets the Blazers have that could eventually pan out, such as talented second-year benchwarmer Jerryd Bayless and a veritable farm team in Europe that includes Joel Freeland, Petteri Koponen and Victor Claver.
Portland also gets strong grades in other categories. The management under GM Kevin Pritchard has been rock-solid, with the only minor quibble being the decision to draft Oden ahead of Kevin Durant -- a decision, one should remember, that all 30 GMs were prepared to make, even if a lot of fans and analysts weren't. In terms of money, the Blazers have no cap room to speak of for the foreseeable future, but being owned by one of the world's wealthiest men in a rabid city where sellouts are the norm means the Blazers can comfortably go into luxury tax and beyond should the need arise.
Portland market didn't score as highly in the market category -- witness Hedo Turkoglu's about-face -- as sad, dreary winters, the nation's highest state taxes and a relative lack of diversity for a major metropolitan area limit its attractiveness to free agents. They stay in the middle of the pack in this category largely due to Allen's largesse, with first-rate team facilities, and the fact that a lot of players grow to like the place once they've been there -- it helped bring Steve Blake back, for instance.
The draft is where Portland scored poorly, but even that is a positive in a sense -- with such a bright future, it can expect to pick in the mid-to-late 20s in coming seasons.
2. Orlando Magic | Future Power Rating: 683
PLAYERS 356 (1st) MANAGEMENT 147 (4th) MONEY 83 (24th) MARKET 73 (4th) DRAFT 24 (27th)
The Magic look like one of the league's teams to beat in 2009-10, and we're guessing that will continue to be the case for the following three years as well. Orlando is blessed with a young superstar big man in Dwight Howard, and most of the veteran cast around him -- Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, Mickael Pietrus and Vince Carter, for example -- should remain spry enough to contribute strongly to the cause for a few more seasons. There is young talent, too, in Brandon Bass, Ryan Anderson, J.J. Re and Marcin Gortat. But it appears we can stop mentioning that they own the rights to Fran Vazquez.
In the front office, the Magic have several strengths -- one of the league's premier coaches in Stan Van Gundy, the committed ownership of the DeVos family and an underrated general manager in Otis Smith. That pushed Orlando to a fourth-best finish in this category.
When it comes to money, Orlando has no cap space for the foreseeable future. The Magic are willing to pay the tax, however, despite their small market, and the new arena that comes online next year should help considerably on the money front.
They also benefit from one of the league's most desirable markets. Orlando's balmy weather, the Magic's winning ways and the lack of state taxes in Florida combine to put them near the top of the list for any prospective free agent.
The one area in which the Magic can't expect much further help is the draft -- it appears they'll be picking somewhere between 27th and 30th for the next few years.
3. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 657
PLAYERS 318 (3rd) MANAGEMENT 139 (8th) MONEY 95 (14th) MARKET 95 (1st) DRAFT 10 (30th)
The NBA champion Lakers might have the best roster in the league for 2009-10. But will they in the following three years? When the 2013 Finals end, Kobe Bryant will be nearly 35, and Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Ron Artest will be 32 or older as well. That's why L.A., even with Andrew Bynum on the roster, ranked third behind Orlando and Portland in the Players category, which rates both the current roster and its potential for the next few seasons. Similarly, the Lakers came out third overall in our rankings.
One category that helps is the market. Despite California's high taxes, the Lakers ranked No. 1 in this category, with players loving the team's fame and success, the good weather and the marketing opportunities that come with playing for the league's marquee franchise. The fact that their third-string center has a publicist says it all.
L.A.'s management also rated well, thanks to the strong ownership of Jerry Buss and the recent solid moves by GM Mitch Kupchak after a very iffy start to his reign. It would have rated even higher if we knew whether Phil Jackson would keep coaching beyond this season.
Money-wise, L.A. ranked in the middle of the pack. Though they have little opportunity for cap space in the near future, the Lakers can pay the luxury tax without blinking an eye if the right deal comes along -- that's an underrated reason they were able to steal Pau Gasol from Memphis two years ago, for instance.
But one area in which they won't get any help is the draft. With no first-rounder this year (owed to Memphis for the Gasol plunder) and future picks likely coming late in the first round, L.A. ranked dead last in that category.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 637
PLAYERS 274 (6th) MANAGEMENT 139 (9th) MONEY 125 (6th) MARKET 36 (23rd) DRAFT 63 (10th)
Oklahoma City may not make the playoffs this year, but for the three years that follow, the Thunder's hopes seem as bright as any team's.
It starts with a rapidly improving roster that includes star forward Kevin Durant and rising talents like Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Jeff Green, as well as several intriguing prospects -- Thabo Sefolosha, B.J. Mullens, Serge Ibaka and D.J. White among them.
Oklahoma City also ranks high in the money category, having more than $10 million to spend this summer on a free-agent splurge to cement its already strong nucleus while maintaining a very good cap situation for future seasons. The only question is whether owner Clay Bennett will commit to spending once the time comes. But thanks to the strong moves made thus far by GM Sam Presti, OKC earned a ninth-place ranking in the management category.
The Thunder also scored well on the draft, owning both their pick and an unprotected choice from Phoenix in next year's draft before their likely ascension to the back end of the draft in future seasons.
One area in which they didn't fare as well, however, was in the market category. Oklahoma City is the smallest NBA market and plagued by some wild weather, two factors that combine to put it well off the radar for most prospective free agents. But there's hope: The Thunder have an excited fan base, and Oklahoma City might look like a pretty good destination if the Thunder start winning big.
5. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 636
PLAYERS 238 (10th) MANAGEMENT 112 (12th) MONEY 146 (2nd) MARKET 89 (2nd) DRAFT 51 (14th)
They might be a one-man band at the moment, but we're very high on Miami's future. The big reason? A confluence of salary-cap space and the ability to win bidding wars for players.
If Miami plays its cards right, it will have more cap space than any other team in 2010, making the Heat a major player in perhaps the most highly anticipated free-agent market in league history. Additionally, Miami is poised to win battles with other teams that offer equal money because it is among the most desirable cities for most players. With warm weather, lots of nightlife and no state taxes, only L.A. ranked higher in the market category.
Miami ranked solidly in the other three areas, too. Dwyane Wade is still in his prime at 27 and, presuming he sticks around, has a very talented cohort in forward Michael Beasley and a second promising piece on guard Mario Chalmers. Additionally, the Heat's management is rock-solid. They have a strong owner in Micky Arison, although he's been reluctant to go into luxury tax. Team president Pat Riley has done solid work when he's stuck to his knitting upstairs, and Miami has a promising young coach in Erik Spoelstra.
The draft should be reasonably helpful as well, with probably a middling pick in 2010 and at some point a lottery-protected first-rounder from Toronto from the Jermaine O'Neal trade.
.
