excellent thread...without reading any of your data I would have said 1 followed by 2 and I would still say so. The difference between days of old and now is that there was nowhere for up and coming fighters to go and the pool was narrow & focused. That no longer exists thanks to season 1 & 2 and the popularity of MMA that followed.
Why bother putting up with living in a house for 6 weeks with no TV if you can get paid in any number of countless regional orgs. Especially now that there are agents going after these guys with only a fight or two under their belt.
The talent pool is bigger and they have more place to go.
Also I would look at TUF like people do with draft classes in the NFL & NBA...these guys generally need about 3 years before we can judge a class.

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