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Great post!
PG - Tony Parker vs Andre Miller
This is going to be a great matchup, because both players play contrasting styles and it's going to be interesting to see who comes out on top. Parker will be looking to slash his way to the hoop because Miller can not stay in front of him all game. He may be able to slow Parker down some with some bumping and a little extra height, but defensivly Miller is going to have his hands full. I expect a lot of Pick and Rolls for Tony because once he turns the corner Miller has no chance.
On the other end Miller will look to take advantage of his strength and height against Parker by posting him up on the low block and high post, George Karl loves to isolate so I expect a lot of post ups from Miller on the weak side away from the Spurs big players. He has a pretty good midrange turnaround jumper that he will be able to get off any time against Parker, so the Spurs may be forced to send some help across when he does post. Parker will have no trouble staying in front of Miller but he will have to watch little bumps and pushoffs Miller can give to create space driving to the hoop. Miller is also a fantastic heads up dribbler meaning he doesn't miss a lot of open players, and he is a solid rebounder.
Overall though, the advantage goes to Parker. He is a better scorer than Miller and even a better 3pt shooter. His ability to consistently attack the rim and get the defense rotating causing mismatches and confusion is seriously underated, and he should be able to cause some havoc among the Denver defense. Miller will be consistent with his play, but he can disapear for stretches of games at a time. If Parker can sag off him a little bit and force him to take the outside shot, he will fine. Parker also has much more playoff experience, which will help.
Advantage - Spurs
SG - Emanuel Ginobili vs Demarr Johnson
It is easy to see the Spurs have the advantage here. Demarr Johnson is just now realising some of his potential that made him a #2 draft pick. His motor accident was a shame and it really is impressive he even got back to playing at a high level in the NBA.
That said, I'm sure Ginobili could care less about his comeback and will be looking to attack him from the get go. Manu will be able to penetrate against Johnson whenever he likes and however he likes. Demarr is ok defensively but he just doesn't have the defensive tangibles to be able to stay with Manu. Demarr will go for the flashy defensive plays with his athleticism and incredible length, but that will not scare Manu at all and I can see Johnson getting into a lot of early foul trouble against #20. Ginobili should be able to have his way on offense, and the Spurs play a lot better when they have Manu penetrating and attacking the hoop, it makes the defense collapse allowing him to kick out the spot up shooters or draw fouls.
Offensively, Demarr is very raw. Athleticism is his biggest advantage, and look for him to get out on the break for some easy baskets. If the Spurs can stop him getting layups and dunks he won't be much of a factor offensively, he is one of the players the Spurs will be looking at to make him beat them. To help Denver to be successful he will have to knock down some shots and make some plays to keep Manu from roaming free and doing as he likes.
So overall, advantage Spurs on this one. No doubt about it, Manu is better at every facet of the game, and the only thing Demarr has on him is athetlicism and heigh.
Advantage - Spurs
SF - Bruce Bowen vs Carmelo Anthony
Another interesting matchup here. Carmelo is going to have to score and score well for the Nuggets to have any chance. History shows he will struggle with this.
It widely known that Carmelo struggles against Bruce. He shoots around 35% against Bruce in 8 meetings, so that doesn't bode well for the young Nugget. But playoffs are where reputations are made, and maybe Carmelo will be up to the challenge. I expect George Karl to isolate Carmelo early and often against Bruce for 2 reasons. The first is to see if Carmelo can get it going early and get some confidence against Bruce, and the second to try and get Bruce off the court with foul trouble. As playoff games go on, the refs seemingly allow more contact so if Carmelo can get some calls on Bruce early it could help him a lot. Anthony is going to have a lot of trouble getting past Bruce, so he is going to have to be stroking his jumpshot. He is very streaky in that department, but he is one of few NBA players who have a legitimate midrange jumpshot. Carmelo will probably take Bruce down to the post as well, where he has the height and strength to battle effectively. He is good on the offensive rebounds of his own misses as well, so Spurs big men will have to come across and help Bruce. It is also important to not let Carmelo get any transition baskets and let him get in confidence up.
Offensively for Bruce, not a lot is expected. As long as he can keep the defense honest with his long range shooting he is fine. He will need to hit at least 35% of his 3's to allow Duncan some room in the middle occasionaly. Also important will be for him to fill one of the wing spots on the fast break. This is one of the things Bruce has really improved on this season, he consistently fills the left wing on the fast break. Those points are gravy from Bowen, and when other teams see Bruce Bowen racking the points up, it has to make them feel a little down. Bottom line for Bruce is he needs to not allow Carmelo to be able to roam around bothering the other Spurs players, and he needs to make Carmelo stay at home on him otherwise he will get in the lanes and also rebound defensively very well.
Overall, the edge goes to Carmelo. While I think he is overated, he really has turned his game around these past 3 months, and is a legitimate 20ppg scorer who can light anyone up for 30+. He is the Nuggets most pure scorer and they really on him to put the points up. Bruce putting the clamps on him would effectively make it impossible for Denver to win the series.
Advantage - Nuggets
PF - Tim Duncan vs Kenyon Martin
This series is just filled with key matchups. It would be ideal if Tim Duncan wasn't bothered by ankle injuries, but an 85% Tim Duncan is still better than most out there.
History shows that Tim gets fantastic numbers against Kenyon, particuly in the 2003 NBA Finals, but I actually think in terms of pure scoring and scoring efficiency, Kenyon does as good a job as anybody. He has quick hands and an uncanny ability to knock the ball loose. We all know Tim is very fundamental, but when things start going bad he tends to compound it by keeping the ball lower than normal, I dont know why he does it but he does and that could be dangerous against Martin. On the flipside, Martins technique of poking the ball gets him into foul trouble often and that is the last thing Denver needs. Kenyon is a pretty good defensive rebounder and shotblocker as well, he is very active around the rim on defense, but he does lack the size and girth needed to truly throw Duncan off his game. Tim should be able to overpower him down low anytime there is single coverage, and Kenyon will jump and bite on Tim's wide range of post moves and ball fakes. I'd like to see Tim get out on transition for some easy ones, maybe baiting Kenyon into doing something stupid. Kenyon should do a good job on Tim, but it still wont be enough to stop Tim dominating when he has too.
Defensively Tim has good height on Kenyon and it helps make up for the athleticism advantage Martin has. K-Mart has few low post moves. He scores around the hoop basically because of his athleticism and his ability to go left and finish with his left. He can occasinally hit the outside J, but as evidenced by the 3-23 episode against the Spurs in the NBA Finals, it isn't exactly reliable. His main attribute offensively is his ability to follow missed shots and get out in transition. The Spurs have to get a body on him around the rim, and have to know where he is on transition at all times. The Denver guards only need to throw the ball somewhere near the rim and he will finish. If the Spurs can force Kenyon to throw up some wild outside shots, he will essentially take himself out of the game on offense.
Overall, the advantage obviously goes to the Spurs, but with Tim's injury problems the gap between the two isn't incredibly large. If Kenyon can average a solid double double with efficient offense and just limit Tim Duncan to being good and not great, Denver has a chance.
Advantage - Spurs
C - Radoslav Nesterovic vs Marcus Camby
This is the one matchup where the Nuggets seem to have a decent sized advantage. Camby has been the key to there turnaround playing a fantastic all around game and great defense which has him in the run for DPOY.
Rasho will be coming in underdone, and from what I understand will miss Game 1. Rasho has to make himself accountable on offense. He needs to get on the offensive boards and needs to finish. The Spurs can't afford to have both Marcus Camby and Kenyon Martin bothering the 2x MVP. Anytime there is a switch on defense and Kenyon is guarding Rasho I'd like to see the Spurs go at it. Kenyon is listed at 6'9, but I don't even think he is that. Rasho would have a 4-5 inch advantage over him and would be able to get his little hook shots and floaters over Kenyon easily. Rasho is heavy and despite people calling him soft, I don't think too many other players would think he is that soft when they run into 260 pounds of pure Slovenian flesh when he sets a screen. If Rasho can set some solid screens and make himself accountable on offense, then that is enough.
Offensively, Camby gets most of his points beating opposing big men with his quickness, getting out in transition, putbacks and top of the key jumpers. There is not much Rasho can do to stop Camby on the break, that is a team thing. Rasho is going to have to keep a body on Camby on the defensive rebounding end and not let Camby give Denver 2nd chance points. Rasho should be able to keep Camby from dominating him down low on offense, because Camby doesn't exactly have many good post moves. He is more an athlete than a basketball player on offense.
The advantage goes to Denver on this one. Camby is not a good matchup for Rasho and we know how he isn't particuly usefull in big minutes against the faster sides. I see Nazr being used a bit more than usual against Camby, that is not a dig at Rasho but Nazr seems like a better matchup. Camby's defense is one of my biggest concerns going into this series, hopefully he isn't to effective.
Advantage - Nuggets
Bench Players
Spurs - Robert Horry, Nazr Mohammed, Beno Udrih, Brent Barry, Glenn Robinson, Devin Brown, Tony Massenburg
Nuggets - Nene, Eduardo Najera, Earl Boykins, Greg Buckner, Wesley Person, Francisco Elson, Byron Russell
Both benches are very good, but San Antonio gets the edge. There is not one weak player sitting on that bench, and every player has a specific ability that could help the team anytime. Horry with his veteran play and his all around playoff goodness. Nazr with his garbage work around the hoop and ability to snare many a rebound. Beno with his shooting and steady running of the offense. Barry with offensive play and passing. Big Dog with his instant offense. Devin with his perimeter defense and offensive spark and finally Massenburg with his big body and fearless at ude which is needed in the playoffs. The Spurs have players that could start for a few teams coming off the bench. Almost every Spurs bench player would be higher in the rotation compared to his Denver counterpart if they played on the same team.
But, Denver has the best bench player of the lot in Earl Boykins. The Spurs are lucky to have sucha quick starting PG, otherwise Earl could of caused a lot of trouble, not that he wont anyway. Najera also plays the Spurs well, and wont hesitate to do something a little borderline to get his team a win. Nene is a big body who is aggressive around the hoop and good log some valuable minutes against Duncan. Buckner could be effective guarding a Spurs perimeter player, Karl would be smart to let Buckner get some minutes against Ginobili if he starts heating up. Elson, Person and Russell are all average at best. Out of those 3 the one with the most chance of doing something productive would be Person with his outside shooting, the Spurs need to stay at home on him whenever he is in the game.
Overall, advantage Spurs. They have a nice mix of big and small, unpredictability and steadiness and experience and youth to cause any other 2nd unit trouble.
Advantage - Spurs
Coaching - Gregg Popovich vs George Karl
These 2 are very different in the way they want there teams to play. Karl likes to isolate players and get out on the run offensively, where as Pop prefers to slow things down and get good shots and run the offense through his big man. Karl is more prone to doing the outrageous and trying something different, whether it be throwing a press out there or trying to make the other team matchup with him. He has his team playing well for him and they obviously listen. Getting through to Carmelo Anthony was probably the turning point in this teams season. That said, Karl has had a few teams fail. Famously, his #1 seed Sonics went down to the #8 seed Nuggets in the first round in the 93-94 playoffs, and despite having fantastic seasons throughout the 90's his team only made the finals once, losing to Chicago 4-2. Karl made some strange choices on defending Michael Jordan in that series which probably cost them a chance at winning it. It wasn't untill he put DPOY Gary Payton onto MJ that Seattle got back into it. He is a good coach, but his teams can fall apart and he can make some brilliant moves, but just as many stupid ones as well.
Pop is more mechanical, methodical and predictable, not that that is a bad thing. His defensive system is one of the best in NBA history, and while you have to have the horses to implement it, he has shown he can turn below average NBA defenders into very good ones. Offensivly, he can get a one track mind at times and fails to utilise certain players. Any faults he has offensively, are made up for on the defensive end. Everyone around here knows about Pop, so there isn't to much use talking about him too much.
The advantage goes to the Spurs here. Pop knows his players better than Karl, and has a fantastic defensive system in place. I'm sure he has a few surprises up his sleeve defensively to throw at Denver, and I'm really looking foward to the coaching duel.
Advantage - Spurs
I think this is going to be a very entertaining series, and I expect both teams to play at a really high level. The Spurs have the intangibles and the Nuggets have the momentum, it should be really fun basketball to watch. I will pick the Spurs to win in 6 games. The combination of Parker and Ginobili penetrating the ball down the throat of the Denver defense, along with Tim getting more healthy as the days go by will be to much for Denver. There is more chance of multiple Spurs bench players coming in and contributing, and with Bruce wearing down Carmelo and the Spurs limiting the Nuggets transition game, it should be enough for the Spurs. I'll give the Nuggets 2 home games, they will be running on emotion and will probably steal one from the Spurs during a 4th quarter, but all in all, the Spurs will do it comfortably.
Result - Spurs in 6 games.
Great post!
Great post. You really spent time on this one.
Excellent post, MI21.
Thanks.
Boredom got the best of me so I figured why not do a post comparable in length to something Whottt would do
MI21 -- can I use this post as a Fan's article on WOAI?
If so, message me your real name to use.
Great post.
My only issues:
The benches. I do agree that San Antonio has a better bench when healthy, but they'll be without a starter and a key bench contributer. They will only suit up ten players today, and one of those players is Tony Massenburg. A bench of Beno, Barry, Robinson, and Massenburg isn't superior to the quality depth the Nuggets bring to the table. If Rasho and Brown get back soon, it's an entirely different matter, though. The Nuggets are solid with Boykins and Nene and Russell.
This has less to do with your post, but I'm also concerned about the effect of having Nazr starting next to Duncan. Rasho could at least hit an occassional midrange jumper. I worry that Nazr's presence under the basket could allow Camby to easily cheat a little bit on Duncan. Nazr will have to be very active and find some openings or he'll become a liability on offense.
Sure, check your PM's.MI21 -- can I use this post as a Fan's article on WOAI?
If so, message me your real name to use.
Great work MI.
Bring it on. Real season starts now. Believe.
Agreed. It is also why Horry combines well with Duncan on the floor, he gives good spacing. It is also why when people say they want to replace Rasho with some low post scoring threat (Curry as an example) it would probably hurt Tim's game more than enhance.This has less to do with your post, but I'm also concerned about the effect of having Nazr starting next to Duncan. Rasho could at least hit an occassional midrange jumper. I worry that Nazr's presence under the basket could allow Camby to easily cheat a little bit on Duncan. Nazr will have to be very active and find some openings or he'll become a liability on offense.
Here it is on WOAI.
http://www.woai.com/spurs/story.aspx...3-A256E0A97CA4
Excellent job, MI21. You always have good insights and you're not afraid to tell it like it is.
Great post.
I disagree of course with Rasho VS Camby, cause Rahso handled him OK in the first two matchups, but other than that, Agree 100%.
Oh yeah, disagree in how many games too
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