Another long post. This is an in-depth about tomorrow's game-The Blazers injuries, rotations, and what the ensuing matchups mean for the Spurs. Like I usually say, if you're big on brevity this thread isn't for you, no hard feelings.
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Center Joel Pryzbilla suffered a ruptured right patella tendon and dislocated patella tonight vs. Dallas. Status: Out indefinitely
G/F Brandon Roy injured his left shoulder in the fourth quarter but will probably play tomorrow.
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Keep this in mind during/after tomorrow's game: The Portland we play tomorrow will be very different than the Portland that we played early last month. And whatever we see tomorrow night will likely be different than what we see again in February as well as a possible meeting in the post season.
Fortunately we play the Blazers only three times this year. I did not like the matchup last year and I dread it in the future as they get more experienced, deeper, and with the possibility of a healthy Greg Oden.
These guys are young, athletic, quick, tall, long, and at times very tough. They have a TON of injuries right now(even the coach is on crutches!) and even though they are short-handed I'm concerned about "The Unknown". We've been scouting them and it seems every week someone gets benched with an injury so we really don't know what to expect from them. They've gotten used to adjusting their lineup so I think they have the potential to handle the absence of Pryzbilla well enough to give us a tough game.
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Remember how a few times last year and the year before we beat Utah, Dallas, and a couple others while short-handed? We came out with strong play from players outside of the Big 3. The other team wasn't ready for it and didn't know how to defend so we had the advantage? Remember how 2007 Round 2 Game 5 was frightening because we had no idea what to expect from Phoenix and we barely won that game?
Sometimes the team missing a key element from their lineup has the advantage of taking the opponent by surprise. Portland has been that team. They've had four key rotation players miss significant time but they're fighting strong with an 18-12 W-L.
They've even been unable to develop their young talent. Patrick Mills has been out and Jeff Pendergraph debuted tonight vs Dallas.
Total inuries include(Mill/Pendergraph), Rudy Fernandez, Greg Oden, Travis Outlaw, and Nicholas Batum. There's even a small chance Brandon Roy will be held out tomorrow(but I highly doubt it considering how short-staffed they are already, he'll tough it out)
I'm guessing that Juwan Howard will start at center tomorrow.
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Starting Lineup/Depth
PG Andre Miller
SG Brandon Roy
SF Martell Webster
PF Lamarcus Aldridge
C Juwan Howard
Reserves are PG Steve Blake, PG Jerryd Bayless, C Anthony Tolliver, F Jeff Pendergraph, and F Dante Cunningham(often DNP-CD)
Last time we played the "new look" Blazers they started 3 guards:
PG Andre Miller
SG Steve Blake
SF Brandon Roy
PF Lamarcus Aldridge
C Greg Oden
They haven't played with this lineup Nov. 20 but we might see them go back to it and stick with small ball considering their lack of size. They have three point guards but no true center. Blazers went 7-2 during the 9 games they played "new look". One of those losses was in overtime to Atlanta.
Whether Brandon Roy or Martell Webster start at small forward look for Richard Jefferson to make an appearance. He put forth a good effort last time these two teams met and will have to be intense on the defensive end whether he's facing the well-rounded game of Roy or the length and athleticism of Webster.
I also expect Roy will take it upon himself to try for a monster game. The team is probably at an all-time low in the morale dept. Imagine how frustrated they are at not being able to stay healthy? We have nervous breakdowns when even just Manu is out. They now have FIVE key guys out. Captain Roy will want to keep the troops in line and ready to compete. This will create an opportunity for Bogans and Hill(Roy will probably play at least 42 minutes so he'll see both the first and second units) to see how they can guard the league's elite. Can Keith Bogans played tough perimeter D AND heat up his outside shooting? Can George Hill do the same?...and against someone quit a bit taller than him?
Also look for LaMarcus Aldridge to step it up tomorrow. Last game we were able to hold him to 8 points(half his average). Can we do it again? He's capable of dropping a ton at any time. Portland's past five games he posted 25, 15, 3, 23, and 19. The 3 points against Orlando was part of their only loss out of those five games. Aldridge has a mid-range game that reminds me of Dirk. Of course we don't have to chase him all out way out the 3pt line, but I see Blair or Dyess guarding him so Timmy can stay in the paint(guessing Blair will start so Blair will guard him). Let's see if Blair can stay in the game without the fouls and still find his way on the glass and to the rim.
Monster game from Tim? Theo? DeJuantanamo Blayr? I expect Pop to go on a mission in the paint and exploit the hole in Portland's center. Also expect Tony Parker to be Tony Parker if there's no one protecting the rim because he should have his way with Andre Miller and Steve Blake.
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Let's take a moment to be grateful for the most comfortable winning pct. of the season. Lose tomorrow and we're just 15-11=.577. Win and we're 16-10(.615)! Obviously we'll take the latter and should we win we'll be slightly ahead of Houston and just behind Denver, and Dallas, who are 19-9(.679) and 20-9(.690) respectively. In fact, Denver is playing Atlanta so there's a chance that we'll be even closer to Denver should they lose and fall to 19-10(.655)
I'll write another thread on the standings in a little bit....
Tony Parker is not going to have a big game against Andre Miller. He has been on record saying Andre Miller is some sort of hurdle he can't play well against. Somehow, he is going to get his either way when Steve Blake checks in. If Bayless gets the playing time he deserves, we will be seeing a Blazers free throw line fest.
Last edited by Chieflion; 12-23-2009 at 03:15 AM.
great write up.. should hopefully be a great game tomorrow
Portland big men are jinxed.
Is it true? Andre Miller has owned Parker a couple of time in the past.
But if you look at Parker career stats in games with Andre Miller (22 games if I didn't miss one), he reach 15.2 pts and 5.8 assist, very close to his 16.7 pts 5.6 ast career stats (I don't have the patience to check his FG%).
He could have produce these stats while Miller was on the bench but I don't think he did (maybe I am wrong).
I also don't like playing a team that is shorthanded because they are unpredictable and tend to play very hard but the real issue I'm concerned about in this game is Juwan Howard.
I hate this guy. He plays recklessly and fouls hard. I'm sure most here remember what he did to DA in the playoffs. Let's hope the Beast sends him a message that his physical play will be matched and then some.
We should murder them on the boards with Pryzbilla out. Sucks for him though...I always liked him.
Pryzbilla has always been a problem for everyone especially on the o-boards but with him out and Juwan Howard at the center you can expect a very high percentage of boards from Tim, 'Dice, and DJB.
They just beat the Mavericks who had Nowitski back with 24 pts. This is a team that can beat you on sheer athleticism at times. Very dangerous as they grow into better contenders.
Damn the Western Conference is hard!
I predict a big gm from Martell Webster. Roy is gonna be wearing Keith Bogans.
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