The 2010 Free Agent Nobody’s Talking About
By Gerald Narciso
Dime
On this Chirstmas Day, two of the NBA’s most coveted 2010 free agents are being showcased on national TV. Dwyane Wade is on the tube as we speak playing the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, which coincidently could be one of his most appealing options come July 1st. The other superstar ‘10 free agent, LeBron James, is in sunny California about to take on Kobe and the Lakers later on today.
On top of the big two, there are several names that have been attracting a lot talk when it comes down to this summer: Amar’e Stoudemire, Joe Johnson, Chris Bosh and Carlos Boozer. One upcoming free agent that is surprisingly not garnered much attention is San Antonio Spurs guard Manu Ginobili.
None of the media outlets have talked about the Spurs reserve in regards to signing with one of the team’s with deep pockets this summer like the Bulls, Heat, Knicks, Nets and Timberwolves. Granted, Ginobili is 32 years old, injury prone and having a sub-par season. His stats are his worst since his rookie year: 12.7 ppg, 3.6 apg, 2.9 rpg while shooting a career-low 38 percent from the field. But he’s still a multi-dimentional player that could still be a game-changer and go-to guy down the stretch when he’s healthy.
Manu is obviously not on the same tier as the other guys and won’t be offered a long-term, big money deal. But he’s an All-Star caliber player a team could potentially get at a cheaper rate (in the $6 million to $8 million range). And in this economy, that could be huge. Ginobili is earning around $10 million and I could see him dropping that price tag if gets a 3-year deal and signs with a team that could be a contender.
A lot of people might assume that the Spurs will keep Ginobili, but if they really wanted to, they would be aggresive with extending his contract. Plus, Manu might want a change of scenery. He’s been with the same team ever since he entered the league seven seasons ago. Who’s to say he wouldn’t be open to playing in a vibrant, international city like Miami, New York or the foreign-player friendly Toronto.
I think when push comes to shove, teams will step up to the plate for Manu. He’s a talented, experienced player who’s a proven winner. He could be the missing piece for a championship contending team or a nice complimentary player beside Wade, James or Bosh.
knicks should go after JJ + AMARE, and bring that small ball bs to the eastside where i think the knicks will have no problem winning.....unless both gets paid and sit do like rest of the knicks players, then get ready for another 6yrs of epic failure
I think Manu wants to stay, and for the reasons stated in the article, I think he will get few credible offers. I put his chances of staying at 85%, with some of the remaining %s as a return to Europe, where his bod takes less damage from a long season.
the question wll come down to loyalty and comfort level vs. dollars and long term security. When a player starts facing the end of his career the choice becomes stark and real. Usually dollars win but it depends on the character of the player.
I agree that Manu wants to stay and I'm sure Pop and the brass feel the same way in their hearts. Manu is clearly having a subpar season and looks nothing like the cold-blooded, game-changing, assassin that he once was. I just wonder if the how this will turn out - especially if the Spurs continue having such a disappointing season. This outcome will be one worth watching.
I hope the spurs don't overpay him to stay. I hope they drop his price considerably.
If the team should underperforms this year, I would not be surprised at all to see the Spurs let him walk after low balling him. I hope he proves me wrong, but I've said for some time now that I don't believe Manu's body was going to hold up and I firmly believe that his best days are behind him. I don't think the Spurs should be counting on him for much more than a solid role player in the future.
Well if you guys actually watch games, hes obviously playing it conservative. He can get to the rim when he wants to, but id rather he save it for the playoffs lest last year plays out again.
Whether it's deserved or not, I think Manu's coming to be regarder the way Bobby Jackson was his last few seasons. No question he's a baller, but if you can't have the consistency of health, it almost ceases to be a question of ROI. Just too much risk. I see him staying here unless his health takes another substantial turn for the worse.
right .. if he lasts this year to playoffs .. (regardless of how "safe"="bad" he plays it during the regular season) ... hes going to be back. And he was never overpriced and he still isnt going to be, so heath is all that stands between him and retirement as a spur.
I think wade and james could be on the same team if james leaves cleveland
if I am cavs I see what it would take to get wade now
wade just has to say I am out of here
no one is talking about manu because he is a plan c plan right now
he plays better he might get up to plan b
Manu's worth will not be known until play-off time.
If he finds his rhythm soon and makes everybody pay for doubting him and contributes big in the play-offs, the Spurs will want to keep him all the more.
But, if he continues to play like he is now come February-play-offs, the Spurs will not take on a big contract for him and other teams will come after him and take him.
Manu's destiny is in his own hands. Playoff time will make or break his future contract with the Spurs. I'm praying for you Manu!
Touching on this, I think if Manu was given the go-ahead, he could be scoring alot more and playing himself into shape at a much faster rate. At this point last season when we had less options he was taking more along the lines of 12-15-17 shot attempts, versus maxing out at 9-10 shots this season on a deep roster. The biggest problem right now is that his legs aren't under him and it's most obvious on his three point attempts and mid-rangers that are going no further than the front of the rim. But I'm not getting the feeling that Manu is forcing it (his play) like many players would in a contract year, he's looking to pass as much as anybody on our team and he shouldn't really be faulted for that, because he's got a knack for it and it's helping with chemistry.... I'd rather Manu "turn it on" two months from now heading into the playoffs, than do it now and burn himself out. But at the same time, he's averaging career lows and it's contributing to our poor record.
Wade and James will never be on the same team.
James will leave to the NYK. He loves endorsements, money, drama and attention. His destiny will prevent him from staying in Ohio.
James is an intelligent guy and financially savvy. It's common knowledge that he has a great friendship with Warren Buffet because James is interested in building a financial empire.
I'd say he's off to a tremendous start as he has had Buffet's advice since the inception of his career.
I still fully expect the Spurs to re-sign or extend Ginobili. He wants to be in San Antonio, and I can't imagine that the Spurs wouldn't want him back in some capacity.
However, one major thing has changed, in my opinion. I used to be a big advocate of getting the extension done as early as possible, and perhaps using last year's injury woes to shave off a couple million over 3 years. However, with the early season injury and uneven start this year, I think the best course of action at this point is to see how he does health and performance-wise through the playoffs, and then try to get an extension done before he actually goes on the free agent market (i.e.- sign it in June 2010).
Even if he performs well, I still don't see his value rising above $7-9 million per year. If he gets hurt again or plays in the playoffs like he has the first couple months of the season, then perhaps you get him as low as $5 million a year, which is a great price if he returns to form or a good price if he's a 12 ppg role player.
Luis Scola will be a much more sought-after free agent than Manu.
Firstly, bigs are always more coveted than little guys.
Secondly, Scola is reaching the peak of his production. He's tough, smart, team-oriented, and can score, rebound, and defend. He's a bit older but far more productive (15/9) than Anderson Varejao (8/8) and Paul Millsap (10/5) who got big contracts last year.
While Manu has shown flashes of supers om, clearly he's on the decline. A business man can't just cross fingers and hope for a miracle but rather must recognize his anticipated path as one of decline and injury.
If you're a team with money like Sacramento or OKC, who would you look to add? Scola is just the right veteran big man for both of those squads - it's not often you can find a "glue guy" that's so productive and not a liability in any aspect of the game.
With the current financial state of the NBA, I just don't see anyone blowing him away with a big dollar long term contract. Too many teams are in financial trouble.
He's missed parts or all of the last two post seasons with injuries, and teams know he can really only play 28-30 minute per game if they don't want him to break down. You don't get superstar money doing that.
I think the Spurs will probably offer him a 2 year deal, somewhere in the vicinity of $13-15M to keep the MLE available teams at bay, if he stays healthy.
I'm a lot less optimistic; I put it at 65% at best. The Spurs would be damn fools to not lowball the out of Manu, and as bad as the economic conditions are, there are tons of teams that have huge capspace that are going to have to spend it somewhere.
So you are saying that the Spurs should lowball him when there are teams willing to spend money on him? If that is the case, that means the Spurs don't really want him and they should definitely look to trade him and get some value.
The Spurs should lowball him regardless of what other teams are offering. There's no way they can continue paying $10 million a year to a guy who cannot last a season anymore. If he somehow doesn't break down at the end of the season (which I doubt, since it looks like he already has), then I'd be open to revising my view, but as it stands now, he's gotta take a major paycut.
As for trading Manu, I'd be open to the idea if the team can get a really nice player for his expiring contract. I wouldn't move him just to get an MLE-level player though.
Well if the Spurs are going to low-ball Manu (which I don't really disagree to a certain extent), and at the same time it is likely another team will offer him more, at that point you have to look at the most likely outcome. Manu will leave.
If that is the case, you have to trade him for anything, even a MLE type player because that is all you will have to spend to replace him anyways next year. So if you can get a player you like at that price range, you should do it. Especially considering the fact that Tiago, if he is coming, will command that MLE.
+1 and then some.
This, in my mind, is the singular reason why I see the Spurs chances at another trophy slipping away. Forget everything else, it STILL starts with a healthy Manu.
The only way I see Manu leaving San Antonio (if he doesn't get traded) is for a LA-Boston kind of contender, I don't see him signing with the Thunders or Kings of the league no matter how much money he's offered.
Manu is done.
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