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You are back. Good read.
Are the Spurs Still le Contenders?
January 6, 2010
The Sporting News named the San Antonio Spurs the team of the decade last September. Such a designation is not surprising when you consider that across the past 10 years the Spurs have won three les and never failed to win at least 65% of their regular season games.
On Sunday, though, the Spurs lost to the Toronto Raptors. This defeat dropped San Antonio’s record in 2009-10 to 20-12, or a 62.5% winning percentage. Such a mark projects to only 50 wins across the entire regular season. For some teams – such as the Raptors (who have never won 60% of their regular season games) – a 50 win season would be cause for celebration. But for the Spurs, the current mark suggests that years of championship contention have come to an end.
About a week ago, Johnny Ludden – at YahooSports! – argued that cracks have already appeared in San Antonio’s le foundations. Looking at the standings today we see that currently four teams have posted a higher winning percentage in the Western Conference. So some numbers suggest the party is ending in San Antonio. But that’s not the story told by all the numbers.
Let’s start with efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). For the Spurs, this number is currently 6.6. This mark currently ranks 2nd in the Western Conference (the Lakers mark is 7.7) and is consistent with a team that will win around 57 or 58 regular season games. Yes, the Spurs differential suggest this team is second best in the West and one of the top five teams in the NBA.
To put this differential in further perspective, here is what the Spurs have done recently with respect to this measure:
2008-09: 4.1
2007-08: 5.3
2006-07: 9.1 (won NBA le)
2005-06: 7.5
2004-05: 8.5 (won NBA le)
2003-04: 7.0
2002-03: 5.8 (won NBA le)
2001-02: 6.7
2000-01: 8.5
1999-00: 6.3
The Spurs current mark tops what they did the past two seasons, and even bests what San Antonio did on its way to an NBA championship in 2003. So this current Spurs team is not the best we have seen across the past decade, but it’s pretty good.
When we move from efficiency differential to Wins Produced we can see who is responsible for this outcome.
Not surprisingly – as Table One indicates – Tim Duncan once again lead this team in Wins Produced. Duncan, though, is not a one-man team. Of the Spurs 57 projected wins, about 28 can be tied to the play of Manu Ginobili, DeJuan Blair, Keith Bogans, and Matt Bonner. As noted a few days ago, DeJuan Blair was clearly a steal in the NBA draft. It’s possible that Blair will lead all rookies in WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] this season, just as Blair led all players taken out of college in per-minute production last year.
Once we move past this quintet, though, the Spurs are only projected to receive 10 more wins from the rest of the roster. “The rest” includes both Antonio McDyess and Tony Parker. As Table One notes, these two players have declined the most from what we saw last season.
For McDyess the decline might be tied to age. McDyess was drafted in 1995 by the Clippers and now is 35 years old. As noted before, age will ultimately reduce the productivity of all basketball players. And this means that McDyess – who is obviously not getting younger – may not improve as the season progresses. The Parker story, though, may be different. Ludden notes that Parker has not been healthy this year. If Parker’s health improves, the Spurs may be even better as the team approaches the playoffs.
And this means the Spurs might be very serious le contenders when this season ends. Again, the impact of age can’t be avoided forever. Two of the key contributors this season – Duncan and Ginobili – are well past 30 years of age. So the Spurs le window is definitely closing sometime in the future. But it’s possible – despite the team’s current place in the standings – that the window will stay open for the 2009-10 season.
- DJ
You are back. Good read.
good article / welcome back
i think spurs really still have a chance but at the rate we're going right now.. there's no way we can beat LA or DEN..
we need something close to a miracle at this point IMO..
we win if there are upsets in the playoffs and a easy route to the finals...then again the morons and haters will say we beat easy compe ion
glad your back 228
good read
228! we missed you! yesssssssss!
Duncan228
Well, HEY!...you're not dead! Neat.
The Spurs are done. They have zero chance at winning another le in their current configuration.
Welcome back 228!
Welcome back 228, and good read, although I don't think there's any question the spurs can be contenders this season if we play like I know we can.
Hi. Welcome back. Good stuff.
Very cool read, thanks. I think we have good reason to remain positive.
Spurs aren't contender and it's quite easy to see why.
Come playoff time, you can expect Duncan to play 36mpg. There will have 60mpg available at PF/C for other players. Now, look at what are Spurs' main options to play these 60 minutes:
- McDyess: 35 year old that has been very average this year.
- Blair : a 21 years old rookie with some serious flaws (lack of size or a jumpshot).
- Bonner : a very limited player who has almost always choked when there were some kind of pressure on him.
It badly sucks and Spurs can't really be considered a serious contender with such a big weakness.
The question is, if McDyess can play like he did in the 2nd half of last year, is that enough?
Enough to beat the Lakers? No.
Bruno's spot on; one of the few times it pains me to agree with him.
+1
In a series, we shouldn't be counted out from anyone. Especially since we are getting better every month.
That's just pointing out the obvious..
Looking at the West, I'd say..
Tier 1: LA Lakers..
Tier 2: Denver and Dallas..
Tier 3: Portland, Phoenix and San Antonio..
If Parker and Ginobili can play on a consistent level like we expect them to, that would put us in tier 2 IMO, probably the best team out of that list IMO..
We simply don't have the big men to get any better than that though..our points in the paint ranking is atrocious..
Agree.
If the Spurs get the expected play from the Big 3 to go along with a supporting cast that delivers (for the most part) what they're supposed to, they're the second best team in the West; no more, no less.
But it's far from a certainty.
If Dice plays the way we think he can, which other bigs are better depth wise? Pau/Bynum, Nene/Martin, Dirk/Damp....
Well that's the problem, isn't it?..those are the 3 main teams we have to compete with..
It's also not exactly the matchups vs. the other frontcourts that I'm most worried about, it's more about the fact that we can't protect the paint at all..
I used to think this was the main problem with our team, and still believe it puts us at a disadvantage against the frontcourt-heavy le contenders like the Lakers, Celtics, and even Cavs.
That said, this very good post http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=142880
by harlemheat37 made a good point that seemed counter-intuitive to me. Our frontcourt has been performing pretty damn well overall, despite lacking in things like points in the paint. It's our backcourt that has really let us down. We definitely need someone to step up in the frontcourt next to Duncan, but I think if Tony and Manu can get their heads together and perform like expected, we make a jump from also-rans to a team that's a threat to upset any team in the playoffs.
Well if Dice plays to the level we thought he could, I don't believe that Nene/Martin are better. I don't believe Dirk/Damp are better although that is close.
Pau/Bynum/Odom is the toughest. Thing is no one knows if Dice has much left in the tank.
Hey! Duncan228 is back!
It's sure that both Parker and Ginobili haven't had a great start of the season with some injuries and some struggling. If they play better and I'm quite confident they will, it will obviously help Spurs.
Now, judging a frontcourt player outside of Duncan on a stat like efficiency is quite irrelevant. The first thing this player need to do is to play defense and it's something that doesn't appear in an efficiency stat.
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