Monroe: Resting your stars can be risky in West

[duncan228]

Gregg Popovich wants Tim Duncan healthy for the playoffs, but they can't sacrifice too many wins.

Resting your stars can be risky in West
Mike Monroe

When Utah Jazz players stepped off their plane in San Antonio late Monday afternoon, they were in seventh place in the Western Conference.

By the time they had collected their bags and checked into their hotel on the River Walk, they had fallen to ninth, out of the playoff picture.

While the idle Jazz were in the air and on a bus, afternoon victories had enabled the Thunder and the Rockets to jump over them in the standings.

Such is life these days in the Western Conference, where on Tuesday morning, just 11/2 games separated the second-place Mavericks and the fourth-place Spurs, with the Nuggets sandwiched in between. Only two games separated the fifth-place Trail Blazers from the 10th-place Grizzlies.

Or, as Jazz power forward Carlos Boozer put it: “How crazy is that?”

You want crazy? Check out the Southwest Division, where Tuesday morning's standings showed the Hornets in fifth but two games over .500.

No division has been so strong since David Stern decided that six five-team divisions made the most sense when the NBA added a 30th team. Yet, the Southwest champion won't get anything but style points for winning the league's toughest division.

Meanwhile, in the Eastern Conference, the Knicks are in ninth place, just two games out of the playoffs.

Their record: 17-24.

Eleven Western teams are over .500, a fact that should frighten fans of a Spurs team that wants to husband the playing time of key veterans who are aging (Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili) and injured (Tony Parker).

The Spurs are 8-9 against winning teams after their victory in New Orleans on Monday. They have 20 left against the other 10 Western teams with winning records.

“Every game we play out here (in the West) is that much more monumental,” said Boozer, “because other teams are in the same position.”

In seasons past, the presumption that saving regular-season wear and tear on Duncan might pay off in the playoffs made sense.

Since 2000-01, they've finished no worse than third in the conference.

In this air-tight Western race, though, such conjecture is risky.

Duncan swears he understands the logic and won't fight Gregg Popovich's plan to rest him “more than ever before,” but here's the problem: Of the remaining eight sets of back-to-back games, five of the opponents in the second game of those sets are Western playoff contenders.

Can you risk holding Duncan out of a second-straight game in Portland in February? In Memphis and Oklahoma City in March? In Phoenix and Denver in April?

One or two wins foregone for future gain has potential for disaster, and not just in playoff positioning.

At least two Western teams with winning records won't even make the postseason. The Spurs don't want to be one of those outraged that their winning record failed to put them in the playoffs, while a sub-.500 Eastern Conference team made it.

Of course, there's a solution to an East-West power disparity that seems to get more pronounced, year to year: a 16-team tournament that includes the teams with the best records, regardless of conference.

Even an old-school guy like Jazz coach Jerry Sloan sees merit in the notion.

“It certainly would keep things more alive and make some of the teams that are down there have to compete harder to get in the playoffs,” Sloan said. “In the long run, I think you'd end up having better basketball.”

Better basketball?

What a concept.

[TD 21]

Good point. Here's the thing: I think, individually, the Spurs could win a game seven on the road against any team in the West. Particularly the Mavs, Suns, Trail Blazers, etc. That situation isn't that daunting. (it would undoubtedly be moreso against the Lakers or Nuggets) But the prospect of being, say a 4th seed and having to win 2 or 3 series without the benefit of home court just to get to the Finals and then probably not having home court once in the Finals, that's probably too tall an order for any team.

Although, something like that is bound to happen every so often and the last time it occurred was the '99 Knicks, as an improbable 8th seed. They had the benefit of the 1st round being five games long back then and it took a miracle last second basket from Houston just to get out of the 1st round. Still, they accomplished the feat, at least so far as getting to the Finals. Once in the Finals, we all know what happened next...

[crc21209]

Teams 1 thru 11 in the West are all playoff caliber teams. While in the East only the Celtics, Magic, Cavs, Hawks, Heat, and now the Bobcats can truly be called "Playoff teams." The rest are just "good enough" to get in, but get stomped over in the 1st round anyway...

[NFGIII]

Depending upon where the Spurs stand the prospect of resting TD would be on a case by case basis. Obviously it would be beneficial to rest TD the first game of those b2b games where they play a WC team the second game. This conference has gotten awfully tough over the last few years and the Spurs/Lakers are the most likely reason for it. When you dominate the POs as they did for the last 10+ years - either team has been in the finals since '99 and only missed it once ('06) then it would be reasonable to expect the other teams to make the neccessary moves in order to compete.

Moving to a 16 team PO system based on record would be for me the best outcome from this situation. IMHO it's pretty rediculous for a sub .500 team to make the POs solely due to the fact that it resides in a weaker conference. I believe that Sloan is correct that if the POs were to be based on record then teams would be fighting for every win late in the season, thus producing better basketball. As it stands now several WC teams with winning records stop putting forth the effort once they are mathematically eliminated from PO contention. That is only natural but is in one sense cheating the paying fans from getting their money's worth. And if the situation continues I really don't see those respective teams discounting tickets home sales since the outcome of those late games are meaningless.

[Chieflion]

We are 3-0 without Tim Duncan, so that equates to a 100% chance of victory if Timmy rests. Rest Tim Duncan. /sarcasm

[DesignatedT]

If we have an easier opponent on the front end of the back to back then pop might hold him out against that team so he can play against those western conference power teams.

[Bruno]

Spurs have had so far a quite easy schedule. They played 23 games at home and 17 on the road, they are 23rd in strength of schedule and they have had a quite light schedule (most of the other teams have played 1 or 2 more games).

It sucks that they haven't been able to get a little more separation with other teams. What sucks even more is that 11 teams are still in the playoff race. Even if 1 or 2 teams struggles, there still will be 9 or 10 teams fighting for 8 spots.

I'm not worried about Spurs making the playoffs. However, Spurs end the season with 24 games in 36 days. If the playoff race is still tight, Pop could be forced to play some players more than he wants.

[Bender]

why does it have to be not playing at all... vs maybe just playing reduced minutes?

I mean, instead of holding him completely out of a game, letting him play, but maybe only 15-20 min.

[eric365]

The Spurs are 8-9 against winning teams after their victory in New Orleans on Monday. They have 20 left against the other 10 Western teams with winning records.

We were 2-7 not long ago.
That mean 6-2 against winning team. Not bad !

[Dex]

Since 2000-01, they've finished no worse than third in the conference.

Now that's impressive, considering how strong the West has been this decade.

[Mel_13]

Now that's impressive, considering how strong the West has been this decade.

They've also finished first or second in their division for 19 of the last 20 seasons. That included several years in a 6 or 7 team division that included Utah and Houston in the 90's.

[boutons_deux]

The EC/WC playoff is crap. Take the top 16 records to the playoffs, in a 16-team bracket.

Also, reduce the league to 16 teams, concentrate the talent which is now insufficient to field 30 quality teams, with the result of a majority of games between ty teams, or one ty and one quality team. (as if the "NBA Cares" about quality of the game more than volume of their revenues)

[bobby4germany]

The EC/WC playoff is crap. Take the top 16 records to the playoffs, in a 16-team bracket.

Also, reduce the league to 16 teams, concentrate the talent which is now insufficient to field 30 quality teams, with the result of a majority of games between ty teams, or one ty and one quality team. (as if the "NBA Cares" about quality of the game more than volume of their revenues)

What?? Well at least this way we could rest Timmy the whole RS and only play him in the PO! 0-82 record and you still get in

[hater]

this is bull . How many years has it been that the East Conference Champ just breezes through the playoffs vs. ty playoff teams?

while the West Champ has to fight epic battles to get to the finals. How many years has this been going on?????