I don't get the logic in what you say:
1) "I've been saying for a long time that there won't be an extension signed this year. The only way is happens is if Tony is willing to accept substantially less than the maximum possible deal. I don't see Tony doing that "
2) "Facing the uncertainties of the 2011 CBA, I think it very likely that he would sign a 4yr/69M extension."
So Parker will only sign a max extension but he would have accept this year an extension that was $21M less than the extension he could get next year.
