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Juan Fernandez. That is all.
Many of us Spurfans have had alot of complaints this season. (1) Small Ball, why pop why? (2) Whats wrong with RJ?(3) Why the Spurs take alot of ill-advised 3pt shots?(4)Why wont Mahinmi and Hairston get playing time? Today lets take question #3 The Spurs 3pt shooting. Hubie Brown on Sunday's broadcast, made a most interesting point regarding the Spurs 3pt shooting. In all their contending years, well say 2000-01 to 2008-09 The Spurs always had more than one guy shooting over or very close to 40% from behind the arc. This season, he pointed out that no one was shooting 40% or over from the 3pt line. That eventually led me to my computer to do some statistical research. Suprisingly the Spurs 3pt shot is extremely important, especially to Parker and to a lesser extent Duncan, both the Spurs big guns. Look at the Numbers!!!
2008-09 = Bonner 44% / Bowen 43% / Mason Jr. 42% / Finley 41%
2007-08 = Barry 43% / Bowen 42% / Ginobili 40%
2006-07 = Barry 44% / Ginobili 40%
2005-06 = Bowen 42% / Barry 40% / Finley 39.4%
2004-05 = Udrih 41% / Bowen 40%
2003-04 = Turkoglu 42% / Charlie Ward 41%
2002-03 = Bowen 44% / Kerr 40%
2001-02 = Steve Smith 47% / Ferry 43% / Porter 41%
2000-01 = Ferry 45% / Kerr 43% / Elliott 42% / Porter 42%
Antonio Daniels 40% / Derek Anderson 40%
In 2000-01 the Spurs led the league in team 3pt fg percentage 40.7% and led the league in Opp 3pt fg percentage at 32.9
Now fast forward to this season 2009-10 The spurs top 3pt shooters are
Bonner 39% / Hill 38% / Mason Jr 36.5%
The Spurs have many new players that are more talented, but less defined. Gone are recent Sharpshooters Barry and Finley, along with clutch 3pt shooters Bowen and Horry. Replacing them are RJ a slasher, Bogans a defender with an inconsistent 3pt shot, Blair a rebounder with a nice low post game and Hill also a defender with an assortment of ways to score (including a decent corner 3). The Spurs offensive Scheme was always dominant and consistent. From 2000-2003 the scheme was throw the ball in the post to Tim or David and surround them with solid 3pt shooters ( Ferry/Porter/Kerr). From 2004-2009 throwing the ball into Tim was still a big part of the gameplan, however the other half was no longer David Robinson who retired, but Tony Parker driving and getting the same high percentage looks in the lane like Tim and kicking out to 3pt shooters (Bowen/Barry/Finley) when the defense collapsed on him.Today Tim no longer gets doubled and Tonys 3pt buddys ie Barry/Bowen/Horry are gone while Bonner and Mason Jr. dont get consistent minutes and the last sharpshooter (Finley) asked for and was granted a divorce from his long time husband. Now Tony Parker is a fish out of water trying to adjust his passing game to accomodate a slasher, a low post scorer and an inconsistent 3pt shooter. Now it makes alot of sense why Pop would encourage Tony to be aggresive offensively (which meant driving to basket) it would open up opportunities for the high percentage 3pt shooters they had on the team. Now the one once called "the head of the snake" by Pop is being yelled at and benched when being "aggresive" offensively because of the different needs of the Personnel surrounding him. The personnel change along with the lack of 3pt shooting hurts the Spurs offensively down the stretch. In the 4th quarter the Spurs would feed one of the Big 3 to get high percentage looks during the last 3-4 minutes of the game and would have clutch 3pt shooters Bowen, Horry and or Barry in the game. Everytime the ball would leave their hands their was a certain confidence that it was going in, simply because of their Percentage and their "Reputation". Now as the Spurs have constantly rotating lineups and trouble defending in crunch time, the next 3ball that is fired in the 4th quarter by RJ, or Bogans will be covered with more question marks than ever as to whether it will find the inside of basket for a Spurs win and hopefully a Fifth le.
Juan Fernandez. That is all.
yeah, what did you expect?
pretty shocking we have nobody over 40%
Lol what?
Spurs three point shooting is important if guys can consistently hit from beyond the arc but more importantly is Spurs "ole skool" three point scoring. Getting to the line which is something Manu and Tim have to do in the playoffs, Manu getting to the rim and Tim getting guys in foul trouble. Also, Tony and Jefferson getting in on the act will be key if they go deep in the playoffs. Another factor that has to be consistent is defense, getting stops, key stops when needed especially down the stretch of games and getting baskets down the stretch. Not making stupid rookie or acclimation errors will benefit the Spurs too. Finally, stubbornness has to go within the Spurs organization. What do I mean you ask, Coach Pop's re-enactment of Larry Brown is what I mean. The Spurs had all season to put a young athletic big next to Duncan who is familiar with the Spurs system. He brings length and athleticism (yes redundant) that the desire yet he sit on the pine all season and for what. I still have no clue because everytime the kid come into a game it makes Coach Pop look like a high school coach and less like a professional. Has the kid been All Star material, no way, but he has shown he can play in the league given minutes and with a guy like Duncan there to help coach and groom what is the big idea. Not only did Coach Pop not play the guy when not one but two rotational Bigs went down, he chose to go small. I shake my head, Coach Pop seems to be reverting back to his pre-Championship days when lineup like Perdue-Robinson-Duncan were normal on the court Center-Power Forward-Small Forward gems. Oh, had no real problem with these lineups but Pop made questionable decisions back then and for someone who was starting to get on par with Phil Jackson, he hs officially made Jackson the class of the laegue alone when it comes to elite coaches who have les to back up the status.
The fact that the three point attempts have gone up and the percentage of attempts that don't come within the flow of the game is way up, the percentage is going to be lower, particularly with a starter that can't shoot but does anyway.
Another thing to note is the drop in free throw attempts. The inability to do anything other than jack up jumpshots makes it difficult to draw fouls.
Keep on posting portnoy! I enjoy reading statistical insight. Especially when you get a nugget in there like, "and the last sharpshooter (Finley) asked for and was granted a divorce from his long time husband." Keep the posts coming.
I think this shows a bunch of Timmy's importance to the team. Even when Robinson left, Timmy demanded a double team hence the high shooting numbers from wide open looks. NOw that more and more teams are willing to play Timmy straight up, the looks are not as wide open and TD has put up some pretty good numbers since he's faced lots of one on one. We've seen plenty of SPurs clanking wide open clutch 3's that don't fall but I wonder how many contested 3's we're shooting this season compared to season's past? RJ shot a career high in 3pt (39.7%) last year. He's only shooting 34.3% this year while this year's shooting percentage is 44.7% is higher than last year's
43.9%
Amen brothah! I've been complaining about the amount of jumpshots this team takes for a while now. In the years recent past, the reliance on 3pt shots and jumpshots has been something that I'm surprised more people haven't complained about. It's a great way to lose a lead, long missed jumpshot usually equals fast break or break down of transition D with a team consisting of older legs. How many times did we see it, Spurs have a double digit lead, 4th qtr. rolls around, Spurs start jacking up 3's/jumpshots with no penetration, some don't fall and we give up easy baskets the other way. Then it becomes compe ive in the last few minutes. Spurs were able to get away with that by using lock down D but those days are gone. Even when they were an elite defensive team there were playoff series where if the 3's or long J's weren't falling, we lost the game. This trend really got in full swing about the 2006 season but not as bad as '07 and last years '08 season. Many many times worse...
Instead of jacking the outside 3's or J's how about driving strong to the hoop. Only good things happen when driving hard.... lay-up, and 1's, free throws or finding an open man.
I'm a big believer in the free-throw line and its importance. It's also a pretty decent stat to show how the Spurs evolved as personnel and style changed, and Tim's dominance waned.
Free throws attempted (FTA) Opponents free throws attempted (OFTA)
*League ranking
'09-'10: FTA (24) OFTA (5)
'08-'09: FTA (30) OFTA (1)
'07-'08: FTA (27) OFTA (2)
'06-'07: FTA (24) OFTA (1)
'05-'06: FTA (29) OFTA (3)
'04-'05: FTA (16) OFTA (6)
'03-'04: FTA (10) OFTA (6)
'02-'03: FTA (6) OFTA (2)
'01-'02: FTA (3) OFTA (2)
'00-'01: FTA (1) OFTA (2)
'99-'00: FTA (5) OFTA (1)
'98-'99: FTA (5) OFTA (5)
These numbers really need to be based on free throw rate. The Spurs are one of the slowest teams in pace over the last decade.
Depends on what your goal is . . .
It's pretty easy to find a decent correlation with how they started the Duncan era (personnel, pace, offensive attack) and how it's played out since.
It's obviously apparent how much of an emphasis they put on not fouling, but it's also apparent how things changed once the Twin Towers (Dave and Tim) gave way to the Big 3; it can be argued the importance of the 3-point shot finds correlation as well.
The free throws to field goals attempted definitely shows some correlation with Tim's dominance and the focal point of the offense . . .
'09-'10: FT/FGA (19)
'08-'09: FT/FGA (30)
'07-'08: FT/FGA (24)
'06-'07: FT/FGA (20)
'05-'06: FT/FGA (29)
'04-'05: FT/FGA (21)
'03-'04: FT/FGA (19)
'02-'03: FT/FGA (6)
'01-'02: FT/FGA (2)
'00-'01: FT/FGA (2)
'99-'00: FT/FGA (4)
'98-'99: FT/FGA (9)
I wish Hairston would get some more run, he is very adept at getting to the line and with significant minutes could help in this regard. Hairston is the closest thing to John Salmons this team has right now
The playoffs should tell you that it's fool's gold to rely on the 3pt ball. It's certainly important, but you can defend against it effectively too.
Here are the numbers for the first round last season (contrast against the regular season numbers):
2008-09 = Bonner 23% / Bowen 55% / Mason Jr. 37% / Finley 46%
I rather live or die by playing hard nosed defense, as in years past. Unfortunately, this roster was built with the live or die by the 3 ball mentality.
Yes it's the Pop trying to imitate the Orlando Magic syndrome, similar to Pop trying to emulate the Boston Celtics the year prior, which is sad when they won the year prior and shouldn't have been imitating anyone. Also, Pop trying to make Bonner into Horry is just ridiculous.
Wow, GREAT post. Spurs have been really one dimensional the last 2 to 3 years. I think Tim is STILL badass, but since other teams are playing him straight up it puts the Spurs at a disadvantage if they (Spurs) are not aggressive enough to drive the ball and get to the bucket. Too many jumpers and 3s plays right into the opponents' defense. The defense has suffered right along with the O, even more.
Refs can't stop a 3 pt shot
...........................Tim Donaghy
3 point shooting has always been an important part of the Spurs team; with guys like Parker, Duncan, and Ginobili they get double teamed so there are going to be a ton of open looks from downtown.
Mason Jr. and Bogans has been shooting less than 30% since the Rodeo Trip. Wtf happened to these guys? At least Bonner broke his hand as an excuse and he's still shooting nearly 10% better than these guys since the Rodeo Trip.
1. Duncan used to get double teamed more so that created open 3 ptrs. Now most teams single cover him.
2. Parker has not been healthy enough to break down defenses consistently which also used to lead to more open 3's.
My point is that the guys they have now are still accurate 3 pt. shooters, but they're not getting as many open looks.
POP-A- is the problem and what happened to those guys.......
You know what i am not even blaming Jefferson anymore, he is stepping up his all-around game more now...
No one is to blame on this team but that dumb ass coach.. Thats why others run time outs, during the game, and run practices with the players..
Bad coaching...
I called this before the season started... that Bruce Bowen's magical corner 3 would be the most missed aspect of their offense, and possibly of the team.
The thing is that the Spurs offense has been inside-out for the longest time. The problem right now isn't the lack of shooters, the Spurs have shooters in Bonner, Mason, Ginobili, Jefferson, and to a lesser extent Hill.
The problem is that the Spurs are no longer as dominant with the inside game due to the decline of Duncan. Duncan, as great as he is right now, isn't the devastating low post player he once was, the Spurs now require a mix of the inside-out game and the slash and kick game, but Parker has been mostly hurt, and Ginobili is still finding his rhythm.
The offensive mix has changed.
Defense is a bigger problem, but that would be another topic.
I realize you're speaking solely about this year, but the free-throw rates since their first championship bear the same kind of thinking.
'02-'03 was Tim's peak year and the last real year the Spurs were still in the Twin Tower mindset; their offensive plan of attack. It wasn't the same, it was essentially the beginning of the end to that format, but they hadn't handed the reins over to Tony and Manu just yet (veering the team towards the dominant pick and roll offense).
In '02-'03 the Spurs were 6th in the league at getting to the line, 2nd in keeping their opponent off the line, and 6th in free-throws to field-goals attempted. But in the '03-'04 campaign, a year in which the Spurs had a worn down Tim and the reins of the offense really started to change hands with Tony and Manu assuming bigger roles, the Spurs free-throw rates started their downward trend: from 6th in FTA ... to 10th; from 6th in FT/FGA ... to 19th.
That was simply the start of the trend, as '05, a year in which Tim was hobbled due to ankle injuries and the offense continued to evolve because of Manu and Tony's emergence, their rates really began to fall (and become what we've become accustomed to in recent years): from 6th ('03) and 10th ('04) in FTA ... to 16th ('05); from 6th ('03) and 19th ('04) in FT/FGA ... to 21st ('05).
Just looking at their rates from '05 to present (their 19 in FT/FGA presently would be their best mark if it were to hold) it's easy to surmise how the room for error has become as small as it has over the years, and why it is that their 3-point shooting and defensive rebounding has become so vital (it's those two aspects I believe most responsible for the Jekyl and Hyde outcomes we've become all too accustomed); the absence of the free-throw line tends to have the Spurs live-and-die by the 3-point shot and force them to maximize possession at a greater level than most because of the way they're constructed.
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