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Because he calls himself Superman, but can't carry a team without his Point Guard in the Finals...
Stupid VanGundy. It isn't Jameer's fault he isn't the right fit...
Its an ESPN insider article...anyone willing to help a bum like me and post it for us?
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog...dkeating_peter
Because he calls himself Superman, but can't carry a team without his Point Guard in the Finals...
Stupid VanGundy. It isn't Jameer's fault he isn't the right fit...
I need to see this.
Howard is very overrated. He's the most athletically-dependent, can't get his own shot to save his life superstar in the world.
inb4 lakerfan tries to say it's LeBron.
Overrated, yet he can still get 20/10.
Why Dwight Howard is overrated
Tuesday, March 9, 2010 | Print Entry
Only about 20 percent of defensive plays show up in basketball box scores, which convey far less information about how points are stopped than baseball box scores do about how runs are prevented.
To get more meaning out of hoops stats, analysts have to either use statistical techniques to extract more from the existing data, or go out and get more data, even if it means creating new companies to track it. The second approach is promising -- Mark Cuban is investing in one -- but the first is far from exhausted. I want to delve into a particularly elegant example: research presented by John Huizinga and Charles "Sandy" Weil at last weekend's MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
Last year, Huizinga (who is Yao Ming's agent) and Weil presented interesting evidence that, contrary to the "hot hand" theory, NBA players are significantly overconfident after making shots. This time around, they looked at "The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan." Analyzing about 1.6 million possessions from the 2002-03 to 2008-09 seasons, Huizinga and Weil found meaningful and often huge variation, in how players block shots and in how valuable those blocks are.
Offensive chances that begin in different ways -- with offensive rebounds, turnovers, inbounds passes -- each have different expected points values, as do different kinds of shots. Teams score an average of 1.54 points on layup attempts, for example, and 1.04 points on 2-point jump shots. Players do more for their own team when they stop the kinds of possessions and block the kinds of shots that are typically worth more to opponents. In other words, blocking a layup attempt is more valuable than blocking a jump shot.
What happens after (and because) a player blocks a shot is even more important, according to Huizinga and Weil. If you block a shot, the best result is a defensive rebound; you thus reduce the expected point value of your opponents' possession to zero and give the ball back to your team.
In the seven seasons that Huizinga and Weil studied, Rasho Nesterovic was able to direct 65 percent of his blocks to his own teammates, while Stromile Swift had no blocks at all that yielded defensive rebounds. If your block produces an offensive rebound -- often the result of smashing the ball out of bounds -- that's neither the best nor worst result. The other team keeps the ball, with an expected value of about 1 for its possession. If you goal-tend on a block, that's the worst; your opponent scores automatically, and occasional fouls push the expected value of the possession up to about 2.07.
Over the entire stretch of data that Huizinga and Weil examined, Tim Duncan didn't goal-tend once, while 24 percent of Dwight Howard's blocks resulted in free points for the other team.
Theoretically, there's another way for blocked shots to create value: by setting up fast breaks and increasing your own team's chances of scoring. Huizinga and Weil call this the "Russell," but nobody does it much today. However your team gets the ball back after you block a shot, the expected value of its next possession is pretty much the same.
Huizinga and Weil looked at the top 170 shot-blockers in the NBA, calculating the ulative difference their blocks made in their respective opponents' expected points and adding the smaller effect of their Russells. (There are points-saved and points-created matrices involved here, cross-indexing how any given chance starts with the type of shot it produces to get values for various possible situations; for those, you will have to look at Huizinga and Weil's actual paper, which I will link to as soon as it's online.) The best season they found: Theo Ratliff in 2004, when he generated a monstrous 300 points off blocks. Marcus Camby in 2008 was No. 2, at 275.
The data yields all kinds of instructive contrasts, most clearly between Duncan and Howard (hence the name of Huizinga and Weil's paper). In 2008, Howard had 232 blocked shots, but he either saved or created just 124 points; Duncan had 149 blocks, but generated 167 points. On a points-per-block basis, Duncan has four of the top 10 seasons, according to Huizinga and Weil. Howard has three of the bottom 10.
This research leads to a number of interesting questions: Do players' shot-blocking skills change over time? Is it possible to predict how a player's blocks will change if you put him on a different team? Watching Huizinga present the data, I also wondered if he and Weil could expand their points-saved methodology to look at all defensive plays, or at least further types of defensive plays. In the meantime, though, it's clear we need to pay attention not only to the number of shots a player or team blocks, but to which plays are blocked and, especially, what kind of results those blocks generate.
could care less about blocks, blocking into the stands makes sportscenter
He is indeed and is certainly no Superman.
This is an excellent paper.
Howard is overrated as a shot-blocker. Plus, shot-blockers tend to be overrated as defenders.
Now, as a defender and a player, he isn't. Howard would still be an excellent player if he didn't block shots.
The value of a blocked shot
By Henry Abbott
TrueHoop
On the NBA Playbook, Sebastian Pruiti describes a presentation by John Huizinga and Sandy Weil, who made a big impression at this conference last year with their paper which strongly questioned the existence of the hot hand.
This year they have examined blocked shots and have found that they are not all created equal.
For instance:
Is blocking a lay-up more valuable than blocking a jump-shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value. A jumper has an expected point value of 1.04 while a lay-up has an expected point value of 1.54. Looking at it this way, Brendon Haywood, who many people is a very good defender (me included) actually is a less valuable shot blocker than Jermaine O’Neal.
Haywood gets 69% of his blocks on jumpers, meaning he only blocks 31% of the more valuable lay-ups. On the other end of the spectrum, 91% of Jermaine O’Neal’s blocks were on lay-up attempts, while only 9% of his blocks were the less-valuable jump shots.
The paper also found that, with many different new factors taken into account, Tim Duncan's blocks are the most valuable in the NBA. The least valuable, they say, are Dwight Howard's.
*********************
The value of Tim Duncan’s blocks
by Graydon Gordian
48 Minutes of
Henry Abbott, Kevin Arnovitz, and numerous other TrueHoop Network writers are at the MIT Sloan Sports Conference. While there, Sebastian Pruiti of NetsAreScorching and NBA Playbook reported on a paper presented by John Huizinga, a professor of business at the University of Chicago (via TrueHoop):
Is blocking a lay-up more valuable than blocking a jump-shot? Mr. Huizinga’s data says yes. In his presentation, he said that it all comes down to expected value. A jumper has an expected point value of 1.04 while a lay-up has an expected point value of 1.54.
Although intuitive in its own right, this information paints a counterintuitive portrait of some of the NBA’s better regarded frontcourt defenders. For instance, “Looking at it this way, Brendon Haywood, who many people think is a very good defender (me included) actually is a less valuable shot blocker than Jermaine O’Neal.”
Huizinga’s paper is led “The Value of a Blocked Shot in the NBA: From Dwight Howard to Tim Duncan,” and not without good reason, explains Pruiti:
…As [Huizinga] explained, through a series of charts, Tim Duncan has had the best season in history when it came down to value/block with 1.12, meaning he saved 1.12 points with every block and Dwight Howard ended up with the worst season in terms of value/block with with .53 (both came during the 2008 season).
Long ago I noticed that most of Tim Duncan’s blocks came right at the rim, which is why I am so excited to read about Huizinga’s paper. Rather than stoke the debate between traditional scouting and advanced statisticians, it further shows how the conclusions of one can work symbiotically with the visual evidence of the other.
I don't think he's overrated as a shot blocker, but I agree that shot blockers tend to be overrated as defenders, see: Andris Biedrins, and many others..
Howard has a goaltending problem and he has a problem with blocking shots into the stands instead of keeping them inbounds(which is what Duncan does and partly why he's highly regarded in this study), he's been criticized for doing this by members of the Magic organization..
Regardless, many statistics show that the Magic have the best interior D in the NBA..whether they do or not is debatable, but they're undoubtedly in the elite..that speaks volumes on Howard's ability as an anchor and intimidating presence, especially when you consider that his "PF" is Rashard Lewis, and Carter/Nelson is a terrible defensive backcourt..
He leads the NBA in defensive rating and defensive win shares, 2 stats that I consider to be very accurate FOR THE MOST PART, when it comes to defensive ability..
Dwight's a very good player, but not great yet. His touch and footwork still need to improve and he's learning from the wrong center.
LMAO ESPN Insider just taking straight from other sites where you can get it for free
I fully agree with the above.
I don't agree with this:
I've read the paper and was convinced of the validity of the author's thesis.I don't think he's overrated as a shot blocker,
Howard has a goaltending problem and he has a problem with blocking shots into the stands instead of keeping them inbounds(which is what Duncan does and partly why he's highly regarded in this study), he's been criticized for doing this by members of the Magic organization..
The biggest issue isn't the blocking shots to the stands instead of gaining possession, a la Bill Russell. That kind of block is very rare in today's NBA. It's about the type of shot being blocked. Howard blocks less efficient shots than, say, Duncan - ergo his blocks are less valuable.
Obviously, he blocks so many shots that he still gets plenty of valuable blocks and is still a powerful force (although his main contribution are altering shots and filling dribbling lanes). It's not like some blocks have negative value - they just aren't as valuable as other blocks. The same with Howard, he isn't as valuable, relatively to some other shot-blockers, as the raw stats of number of blocks per possession would suggest - but in spite of that he's still the best shot-blocker/defensive big man in the league.
Dwight Howard's defense is overrated, except for when it isn't
By John Krolik
One of the most buzzed-about things during the recent Sloan Conference at MIT was a paper presented by John Huizinga on the value of a blocked shot.
It was an interesting paper because it quantified things that fans have known for years. A block softly deflected to a teammate is better than a shot swatted out of bounds, blocking a layup is more valuable than blocking a jump shot, and goaltending is bad.
What makes the paper extremely interesting is that according to Huizinga's findings, Dwight Howard made the least valuable blocks in the league, while Tim Duncan made the most valuable ones. Since Howard is generally regarded as the best shot-blocker in the NBA by a wide margin, this finding has stirred up some controversy. Most people know that Howard goes for some blocks even he can't get and tends to e the ball out of bounds rather than tap it to a teammate, but the least valuable blocks?
Keep reading →
howard just can't handle the ball during clutch situations. if there was 2 minutes left and the magic was down by 4, they won't be giving the ball to howard. instead, nelson or carter will be handling the ball. howard is just too easy to stop because of his predictable moves and low free throw shooting precentages.
That's only because there aren't many legitimate centers left. Put Howard on the court during the early 90's and he would get curb stomped.
If he's so easy to stop why the heck are teams allowing him to put 18 points in 10 shots per game?
Sigh, no matter what Dwight does it is never good enough. The Magic are the best team in the league at protecting the paint so I really don't care if his blocks aren't as valuable as others. Would it be nice if his blocks were "better", sure but if that is the worst thing you can say about the fellow then I'll take it.
The book on beating Orlando is to stay home on their 3-pt shooters and force Howard to score 35, 40 points a game against single coverage in order to beat you. So far he hasn't shown that he can do that consistently.
An elite, top 10 player for sure, but if he ever developed a decent post game he'd be the best player in the league easily, even better than Lebron.
That seems very unlikely seeing he's been in the league for 6 years already.
He's only 25 years old, so there's still some time for him to learn. He's going to have to develop some skills because he gets by on size, strength, quickness and athleticism, and eventually he's only going to be able to count on two of those things.
I agree ...but that is BIG IF!!!
So that's the "simple" book on them, but they made it to the Finals last year and have a great record this year, despite Carter having the worst stretch of his career up until February?..
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