48 minutes of : spurs will beat MAVS if bogans gets least PT

[SinBAD]

http://www.48minutesof .com/
Bogans doesnt play that much.

The Underachieving,Underrated Spurs
Filed under: Uncategorized — wwinston @ 1:49 pm
Since the all star break the Spurs have faced down an injury to star point guard Tony Paker and yet they played 6.4 points better than average. This is third best performance in NBA since break (behind Orlando and Phoenix). Yet the Spurs are only 20-1 to win the NBA championship while the Cavs and Lakers get under 2-1 odds. So I guess it is fair to say the Spurs are underrated.

Given how well the Spurs have played, it is amazing to see how much better they could be if they carefully analyzed their lineup choices. Here are some amazing stats concerning the Spurs performnce this year. All stats are per 48 minutes and are adjusted for strength of opponents faced.

The Spurs are poor when Mason is in and Duncan out. They play 7 points worse than average per 48 minutes).
Blair and Duncan do not play very well together. Spurs are only 2 points better than average with both in.
When Duncan is out, the Spurs are great with Bonner and Blair in (12 points better than average). Rest of time Duncan is out Spurs are 9 points worse than average.
Bogans has an Adjusted +/- rating of -7. This means we estimate he would cost the Spurs 7 points per 48 minutes if he played instead of an average NBA player. Newcomer Garrett Temple has been great, with an Adjusted +/- rating of +3. Temple plays poorly with Bogans (62 min -16 level), but when Temple is in with Manu and Duncan the Spurs are on fire (+27 level, 65 minutes).
When the Spurs go small with Manu, Hill ,Parker, and Duncan they only play at average level with McDyess out. But with McDyess in with these 4 they play at +47 level (only 25 minutes).
Duncan, Manu, Parker and Mcdyess has been great: plays 28 points better than average in 175 minutes. Without McDyess, the other three only play 5 points better than average.
Duncan, Manu, Bonner and Hill with either Jefferson or Mason is a great way to rest Parker. These lineups play 22 points better than average (122 min).
Jefferson, Manu and Duncan, with other two guys just about anyone except for Blair is great: 748 minutes, 20 points better than average.
When Manu is out the Spurs are fine with Duncan and Parker in (other 3 chosen from player not including Bonner, Mason and Blair). The Spurs play 17 points better than average (in 320 minutes) in this situation
In the 4th quarter Duncan, Manu, Bonner, Jefferson, and Blair have al been solid. Hill (-7 Adjusted +/- in 4th quarter) has not played well in 4th quarter.
Spurs best lineups

Based on the entire regular season, here are the Spurs best performing lineups that have played a reasonable number of minutes: Note 3B is a great way to rest Manu.

SAS 15.14 ( 17.42 5.69 -11.73 40.81 2.93 4.47) 230.87 minutes 92 appearances 1 A 9.98 48 $
Duncan Ginobili Hill Jefferson McDyess 30.92 years 4904_SAS_2010

SAS 12.48 ( 6.61 -2.96 -9.57 15.47 1.10 6.09) 191.20 minutes 60 appearances 2 A 11.30 45 $
Bogans Duncan Jefferson McDyess Parker 31.16 years 12810_SAS_2010

SAS 15.40 ( 21.01 10.73 -10.28 38.74 3.17 4.90) 70.48 minutes 44 appearances 2 B 14.30 21 $
Bonner Duncan Ginobili Hill Jefferson 29.81 years 812_SAS_2010

SAS 27.40 ( 11.45 -1.89 -13.34 25.23 1.88 4.62) 68.78 minutes 23 appearances 3 B 23.03 33 $
Duncan Hill Jefferson McDyess Parker 29.96 years 13064_SAS_2010

SAS 30.64 ( 19.12 10.26 -8.86 54.72 3.49 3.95) 63.82 minutes 42 appearances 4 B 26.32 35 $
Duncan Ginobili Jefferson McDyess Parker 31.72 years 12840_SAS_2010

SAS 17.88 ( 22.22 6.20 -16.02 65.29 4.11 3.28) 47.50 minutes 11 appearances 2 C 16.17 16 $
Duncan Ginobili Jefferson McDyess Temple 30.92 years 70184_SAS_2010

SAS 19.80 ( 12.23 2.47 -9.77 38.31 2.34 5.72) 46.86 minutes 38 appearances 4 C 16.39 16 $
Duncan Ginobili Hill Mason McDyess 30.88 years 6440_SAS_2010

SAS 10.92 ( 22.71 15.30 -7.41 52.64 3.73 4.37) 45.53 minutes 35 appearances 5 C 13.70 13 $
Bonner Duncan Ginobili Jefferson Parker 30.60 years 8748_SAS_2010

SAS 18.55 ( 13.93 7.04 -6.90 52.22 2.91 5.41) 43.57 minutes 27 appearances 7 C 15.42 14 $
Duncan Ginobili Mason McDyess Parker 31.67 years 14376_SAS_2010

SAS 10.62 ( 7.72 11.88 4.16 15.15 1.20 6.24) 40.80 minutes 29 appearances 8 C 9.41 8 $
Bogans Duncan Ginobili Jefferson Parker 30.58 years 8746_SAS_2010

SAS 26.25 ( 11.37 9.50 -1.87 34.69 2.13 6.32) 39.37 minutes 23 appearances 10 C 24.39 20 $
Bogans Duncan Ginobili McDyess Parker 31.74 years 12330_SAS_2010
SAS 17.89 ( 10.28 9.42 -0.86 32.68 1.98 5.40) 38.70 minutes 29 appearances 11 C 17.36 14 $
Duncan Ginobili Jefferson Mason Parker 30.51 years 10792_SAS_2010

Head to Head Spurs vs. Mavs

Not much interesting data here. For season Spurs played 1 points worse than average against Mavs (adjusting for strength of opponents). Most of their poor performance was with Bogans in (93 minutes Spurs played 10 points worse than average). When Bogans was out Spurs played 6 points better than average against Mavs.

[bobby4germany]

WE CANT PLAY WITHOUT OUR CENTERPIECE!!!

[DBMethos]

So our best chance to win the series is to nail Bogans to the bench and hope that Pop doesn't unleash him?

Crap.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I'd MUCH rather have Bogans in there than Mason

[Mark in Austin]

Lineups with Manu play better.

When Manu is out the Spurs play better when Duncan and Parker are on the floor.

Seriously? Any chance Cuban can re-hire this guy before the playoffs start?

[MannyIsGod]

I have disliked few Spurs the way I dislike Bogans. In fact I can't remember the last time a Spur so entrenched in the rotation aggravated me so damn much.