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He makes it sound like Barry will be spending significant time on Lewis. Say it ain't so.
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Marty Burns, SI.com
The Spurs will win if...
The Spurs are good defensively and well-coached. With Tim Duncan to protect the rim and Bruce Bowen to hound Sonics star Ray Allen, San Antonio will make it tough for high-octane Seattle. Unlike the Kings, the Spurs won't let Jerome James do his Shaq impersonation in this series. Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed will join Duncan in keeping James in check, and all three big men will do a better job keeping the Sonics from hooking up an IV to the offensive boards and making it their lifeline as they've done to NBA foes all season. The Spurs are the rare team that can match up with Sonics forwards Rashard Lewis and Vladimir Radmanovic. Brent Barry knows Lewis well from his days in Seattle while Robert Horry has the length and experience to counter Radmanovic. Offensively, San Antonio will be fine if Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Glenn Robinson and Barry make enough outside shots to keep the Sonics from sitting in Duncan's lap. However, Seattle is going to hack Duncan a lot, so the two-time MVP (a 67-percent foul shooter during the regular season) will have to knock down some free throws.
The Sonics will win if...
They have the gunners to shoot over the Spurs, and nobody expects them to win, so they can play loose. With Allen, Lewis, Radmanovic, Antonio Daniels and Luke Ridnour, the Sonics boast five marksman to neutralize the Spurs' tall interior defenders. With little pressure to win the series, they should let it fly. Defensively, Seattle has active big bodies in James, Danny Fortson, Reggie Evans and Nick Collison to throw at Duncan. They will bang him, bump him and "Bowen" him while using all 24 fouls. It could be just enough, especially if Duncan bricks his free throws. The Sonics are a team with good chemistry and mojo. With seven free agents, including Allen (32.4 points, 5.0 assists vs. Kings) and James (17.2 points, 9.4 rebounds vs. Kings) they seem to be playing with tremendous focus and energy. They also beat the Spurs twice during the season, including once at San Antonio, so they know they can win. The Sonics are going to need to be sharp -- and Fortson will need to be a pest without losing control of his emotions -- but they have a chance if their outside shots fall.
Key matchup
Bowen vs. Allen. These two shooting guards, once friends, don't like each other. They have had several nose-to-nose confrontations in recent years, and Allen has even gone so far as to label Bowen's physical flopping brand of defense as "sissy basketball." The Spurs will need Bowen, who finished third in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, to continue to get in Allen's head in this series. Allen was on fire against the Kings, leading all NBA playoff scorers with 32.4 points on 51 percent shooting (45 percent from downtown). He was hitting shots with guys in his face and getting where he wanted on the court. He also averaged five rebounds and five assists per game. Bowen won't score nearly as much as Allen, but if he can knock down a few open jumpers it will be enough for coach Gregg Popovich. Bowen's primary goal, as always, will be to make Allen work for everything and hope he's too tired at the end to take over. Allen, meanwhile, must keep his cool and not let Bowen bait him into any extracurricular activities.
Interesting fact
The Spurs and Sonics have met in the playoffs twice previously, with San Antonio winning both times. In 2002, Duncan's Spurs edged the Sonics 3-2 in a first-round series en route to the Western Conference semifinals. In 1982, George Gervin's Spurs beat Seattle 4-1 in the semifinals before losing to the Lakers the following round.
The pick
The Sonics have proved doubters wrong all season, and they have nothing to lose. But the Spurs have Duncan, a better defense, and home-court advantage. Spurs in seven.
He makes it sound like Barry will be spending significant time on Lewis. Say it ain't so.
Mojo? Did Mouse write this preview?The Sonics are a team with good chemistry and mojo.
I thought he came second
protect the home court. win game 1 and 2. the series would end in 4 to 5 games with the Sonics eliminated.
Bowen will be on Allen most of the time, therefor, Barry defends the other swingman Lewis when he's in there.
The Spurs will have to handle the screen/rolls and dribble handoffs for shots or they will lose. What the Sonics like to do is early offense scoring, before their opponents get locked-in. More than any other team I've watched this season, the Sonics like to use their 1, 2 and 3 to screen for each other early offense, particularly on handoffs and then boom, the quick 20 foot swish. They mix that nicely with their bigs doing screen/rolls and then crashing the boards for 2nd chance points. Seattle shoots so well, that they may not need 2nd chances, however, unless the screen/rolls are deftly defended.
"Seattle shoots so well"
True in the season ("the season don't mean "), but not true for the first playoff round.
http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortab...sortable1.html
... select "playoffs", show the Spurs, WTF?, ahead of the Sonics in FG% and 3G%, and double the +PPG differential.
The only major category where Sonics are ahead of Spurs is RB diff, but only by +1 RBG better than Spurs, and the long Sonics were rebounding against weak Kings.
In fact, one could say that the Spurs have better first-round stats against a better team than the Sonics have against a weaker team.
Ray has pretty much carried the Sonics' offense. If Ray's off, Sonics struggle or lose.
Sonics are very good in FT%, but "FT's don't count", so WGAF?
Spurs...in seven? Hmmm....
seven? is he nuts? im calling sweep
Respect the Sonics. They are good.
i think if the spurs come out and win game 1 and 2, it will put major doubt in the sonics minds. thats why its important for the spurs to protect HCA.
We are going to underestimate them, thats a given, but as long as the Spurs don't do it we'll be fine.
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