Dallas is 1-16 when Crawford refs their playoff games

[dallaskd]

I’ve been trying to remember where I first learned that as of a year ago, the Mavs are 1-15 when referee Dan Crawford works their playoff games. And then it came to me …I’m the guy who wrote it!

And tonight’s lead official for Game 3 of Mavs-at-Spurs is. … Dan Crawford. … and the Mavs’ record when he refs is now … 1-16.

The stunning numbers ... and the stats that suggest the unlikihood that the numbers are accidental ...

* Last year, when the Mavs were preparing to take on The Nuggets in Round 2, we pointed out before Sunday’s Game 1 that in Mavs playoffs games worked by Crawford from 2001-to-2005, the Mavs record was 0-8. (Those years, Dallas was 41-37 in games NOT worked by Crawford.)

*Then we updated to this additional info: going into that series, and since 2001, the Mavs were around .500 overall in the playoffs. But Dallas’ record when Crawford IS working the Mavs game was. … 1-15. (I'm seeing that 1-15 number cited around the internet now. ... unless my math is screwed up -- entirely possible! -- that number must be coming from our story a year ago ... and forgetting that Dallas went on to lose that game to the Nuggets.

*The notable Mavs win under Crawford’s watch was in the 2006 Phoenix series, a Dallas blowout victory. Also in 2006, in the NBA Finals, guess who worked Game 3 against the Heat, when Dwyane Wade was allowed to shoot as many FTs (18) as the entire Mavs team made, all leading to Dallas’ two-point loss? That would be Danny Crawford.

And in Game 6, when the Mavs lost by three points?And Wade shot 21 free throws, two fewer than the number shot by the entire Mavs team?

Danny Crawford strikes again. … and again. … and again.

*The Mavs lost that playoff game against Denver with Crawford behind the whistle. That’s makes him 1-16 when he works a Dallas playoff game.

Think about it: This decade, the Mavs win around 50 percent of their playoff games. … but when Dan Crawford refs, they win one out of 16?

We played with the numbers on this a year ago. At that moment:

Dallas’ playoff winning percentage without Danny Crawford is 59.77 percent.
Plug the numbers into this StatTrek website:
Use the following formula:
n = 16: the number of games officiated by Danny
k = 1: the number of wins when officiated by Danny
p = 0.5977: the probability that a win will occur without Danny -- our best inference of p is the games officiated by other crews.
What will you find?
That the probability that the extreme number of losses occurred by random chance is 0.001119 percent.
Thus, one time in every 100,000 occurrences would one expect this situation to present randomly.

Almost makes you wish that the third ref working tonight’s game alongside Bavetta. Rodney Mott was Tim Donaghy.

Seriously, maybe it's all a crazy coincidence, right? Maybe Danny doesn't even have awareness of all this.

Except ... when you go to his page on the National Basketball Referees Association site ... that photo you see above of him enbroiled in a Mavs fight? That's Dan Crawford's official photo.


http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=2949

[Fpoonsie]

[lefty]

So it will be 2-16 after game 5

[mavsfan1000]

Not that it would have made a difference. The Mavs are in disarray anyways. But Crawford definitely hates us. He lets Dirk get beat up. Delaney or whatever his name doesn't like us either.

[Ghazi]

shutup bullsfan

[mavsfan1000]

shutup bullsfan

How about that great coach we have.

[Giuseppe]

1-16 is borderline criminal.

[mavsfan1000]

I saw Crawford go out of his way a few times to give the spurs the call. Then he says stay away from me after making the call like he knew it was controversial.

[baseline bum]

I'm sick of Dallasbasketball.com throwing that stat against the wall, and then just walking away with an implied premise, but without actually saying anything but some weak saracasm. Those losers just need to come out and say they believe the NBA is fixed and there is a massive conspiracy against them, reaching to the top levels of the NBA offices in New York. Surely a person with a vendetta to screw one team over so royally wouldn't be continually one of the top-rated refs and crew chiefs working all of the most important games without such a conspiracy.

Or maybe instead they could write an article about how the Mavericks need to quit looking for scapegoats to blame their failures on, and stop letting that statistic convince them they're screwed before the game even tips. If Cuban wouldn't have ed about that stat so much and hyped it, it probably wouldn't be such a heavy monkey on his players' backs.

[mavsfan1000]

I'm sick of Dallasbasketball.com throwing that stat against the wall, and then just walking away with an implied premise, but without actually saying anything but some weak saracasm. Those losers just need to come out and say they believe the NBA is fixed and there is a massive conspiracy against them, reaching to the top levels of the NBA offices in New York. Surely a person with a vendetta to screw one team over so royally wouldn't be continually one of the top-rated refs and crew chiefs working all of the most important games without such a conspiracy.

Or maybe instead they could write an article about how the Mavericks need to quit looking for scapegoats to blame their failures on, and stop letting that statistic convince them they're screwed before the game even tips. If Cuban wouldn't have ed about that stat so much and hyped it, it probably wouldn't be such a heavy monkey on his players' backs.

It's not a conspiracy but Stern is unwilling to change his poor refs no matter what. It's like he is not open for the suggestion and being the tyrant he is. The refs got total security which I think is pathetic. If you do a bad job at work, you should be fired. Same with refs. Veteran refs are the worst since they got an ego to and they are the ones chosen for the playoffs.

[baseline bum]

It's not a conspiracy but Stern is unwilling to change his poor refs no matter what.

Then it's a conspiracy since he's continually a crew chief, always calling the biggest games, and always among the highest rated referees in the NBA's internal evaluations. There's just no middle ground here. If he has a personal bias against Dallas that causes them to lose every single time, it's pretty hard to believe that the NBA isn't in on it too, since they claim to review every single call of every single game.

It's like he is not open for the suggestion and being the tyrant he is. The refs got total security which I think is pathetic. If you do a bad job at work, you should be fired. Same with refs. Veteran refs are the worst since they got an ego to and they are the ones chosen for the playoffs.

You're taking Crawford doing a bad job as an axiom based on a stat, when it's much more likely that the Mavericks are just buying into some self-fulfilling prophecy that they're not going to win when he calls their games.

I get there's some refs a team isn't going to do as well against. For instance, I hate seeing Eddie F. Rush doing a Spurs game because he seems to call the game a bit tighter and hurts the Spurs ability to play physical defense. Still, it's not like he's calling the game from a different rulebook than Joey Crawford or Steve Javie, and no game is unwinnable just because he's officiating.

[mavsfan1000]

Then it's a conspiracy since he's continually a crew chief, always calling the biggest games, and always among the highest rated referees in the NBA's internal evaluations. There's just no middle ground here. If he has a personal bias against Dallas that causes them to lose every single time, it's pretty hard to believe that the NBA isn't in on it too, since they claim to review every single call of every single game.



You're taking Crawford doing a bad job as an axiom based on a stat, when it's much more likely that the Mavericks are just buying into some self-fulfilling prophecy that they're not going to win when he calls their games.

I get there's some refs a team isn't going to do as well against. For instance, I hate seeing Eddie F. Rush doing a Spurs game because he seems to call the game a bit tighter and hurts the Spurs ability to play physical defense. Still, it's not like he's calling the game from a different rulebook than Joey Crawford or Steve Javie, and no game is unwinnable just because he's officiating.

It's not a conspiracy because Stern is unwilling to change his refs no matter how many people complain. He goes with the same ones every playoffs unless they retire. And Dallas does not adapt well to getting mauled. And Crawford and Delaney are noticeably allowing this to happen. The one thing Stern has control over is which refs to call the games. It's unfortunate the ones with the most controversy are the ones calling the playoff games for Dallas. But they are reffing other games as well. We just made enemies with the wrong people. Gotta blame Cuban for that.

[baseline bum]

Stern doesn't need to honor every biased grievance about officiating; most of the time they're purely sour grapes. If a ref's actions are robbing a team of wins 95% of the time and he's not fired for it, then the league is obviously crooked.

[mavsfan1000]

Stern doesn't need to honor every biased grievance about officiating; most of the time they're purely sour grapes. If a ref's actions are robbing a team of wins 95% of the time and he's not fired for it, then the league is obviously crooked.

Ignorant is what I think about it. Just like Carlisle is ignorant with seeing what Beaubois can do. Seniority rules in many cases and it is the same in the nba. And Stern really isn't going to stop any official from screwing a team.

[TinTin]