Random Thoughts Before Game 5

[timvp]

-If the Spurs have long-term goals for this playoff run beyond this series, getting this win is vital. With such a short rotation and no more rest days in this series, they need the series to end ASAP to build up enough juice going forward -- especially if the Phoenix Suns are next on the horizon. Even if the Spurs win this series after losing tonight, their chances of winning in the next round drop considerably. For an example, reference how damaging the length of the Hornets series was when it came to trying to beat the Lakers in 2008.

-After re-watching Game 4, I'm a bit more confident in Duncan. Originally, I thought he might be out of gas. But looking at it again, it appears Duncan was just not forcing anything and taking what the defense gave him. He went 0-for-7 in the first half and his only two shots in the second half were those two bunnies at the end -- the one tip-in he made and that two-footer he missed. I've been preaching for Duncan to not try to force the issue against these Mavs so I was a bit of a hypocrite after last game for calling him out.

-I'm a bit worried with the shooting. Take away George Hill's last game and the Spurs have been horrible as of late knocking down three-pointers. Ginobili is so much deadlier when he's knocking down threes, so let's hope that is the case tonight. If he's not hitting from the outside, he has to find a way to beat the blitzing Mavs defense.

-How is Pop going to handle the rotation with regards to Matt Bonner? Bonner was held out of the rotation in the second half of Game 4 in favor of Jefferson at power forward. We know that Bonner is a choker, but I'd prefer Pop giving him first crack as the backup power forward over Jefferson. First of all, the rotation is short enough as it is. Secondly, utilizing small ball against the Mavs is like lighting up a cigarette next to a pool of gasoline. Give Bonner a chance and pray to the man or woman you pray to that he accidentally does a few things correctly.

-Tony Parker needs to realize the Mavs can't defend him on well-spaced pick-and-rolls. Almost every time he is able to split the combo of defenders thrown at him. In a physical contest like Game 5 promises to be tonight, getting easy points from Parker layups is extremely valuable. In reality, Parker has authored the easiest points for the Spurs in this series when he takes the time to run a smart pick-and-roll.

-Nowitzki having a giant game is a given. I'd be shocked if he's not pushing 40 points by the time the final buzzer is sounding. Since Nowitkzi exploding is expected, Jason Kidd needs to continue to be a focal point. The Spurs have to pressure him and then run him off the three-point line as much as possible. Caron Butler remains the x-factor. When he's rolling, the Mavs have been at their best. Keep him questioning himself by putting him in difficult situations (fronting him, doubling him, etc.) and the Spurs should have success.

[HarlemHeat37]

-I wouldn't change anything in regards to the defense..I like the strategy, it has worked, keep doing what they're doing..keep denying Dirk the ball on pick and pops, keep sending occasional blitzes when he has the ball..make sure Kidd doesn't get clean looks..the only thing I haven't been satisfied with is the rotations against Terry..

-I've been worried about the shooting for 2 games in a row..in the game blogs, I kept talking about how I didn't think the Spurs would win if they continued shooting poorly from outside, but they managed to win both games..I really don't think the Spurs can continue to win without some consistent 3-point shooting though..it has to come from somewhere..

-I'd like for Pop to keep playing Bonner early on and see if he's going early..Bonner would be a huge help with the struggling shooting, even though it's unlikely that he suddenly isn't scared of pressure anymore..I hope Pop can avoid using the Blair-Bonner frontcourt as much as possible, but obviously easier said than done since he has to rest the 2 older bigs as well..

[xellos88330]

Im telling you Tim ate too much cake.

[coyotes_geek]

Regarding the 3 point shooting, I think you've got to give the mavs a little bit of credit for closing out on the shooters. The Spurs didn't shoot the 3 worth a damn against them in last year's series either. The pattern has gone on long enough to where I don't think it can just be dismissed as a fluke. The mavs can't defend 1 on 1, so emphasizing closing out on the 3's is about the only chance they've got to slow down the Spurs offense.

[silverblk mystix]

nice info...

I would agree that winning tonight is crucial---if you want to make a deep playoff run...

this year---it is very important---not only to keep winning---but to really try and keep each series as short as possible---no lazy-throwaway games

because health is vital

[oligarchy]

..let's see how much zone they throw tonight and if the spurs react quicker.

[scottspurs]

Spurs cannot lose focus tonight. It is going to be physical and hostile. Limiting turnovers and rebounding are going to be key.

[Zammers]

Nice post "Timvp".

You are right on Tony P needing to attack the rim. The Mavs interior defense is soft and by taking the ball to the rack you create easy basket opportunities and free throws. Free throws are a bonus for the Spurs because we are more of a half court offense and the Mavs are better when on the run. Free throws take the fast break game out of rhythm and it bothers the Mavs.

The Spurs have done a good job of exposing the weaknesses of the Mavs. They aren't a half court team. The only player they have that can successfully create off the dribble is Dirk. The rest....Kidd, Terry, Butler, and Marion are better getting jump shots off screens or layups in transition.

Once the Spurs get into a defensive rhythm it is virtually impossible for the Mavs to be THE MAVS. The get frustrated and that's when we make substantial runs.

[Morg1411]

-Give Bonner a chance and pray to the man or woman you pray to that he accidentally does a few things correctly.

I about died when I read that.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

I really think the refs will want to keep the leash on the physical play in the early going. Whichever team can come out attacking the hoop most effectively stands a good chance at forcing foul trouble for the opposing team. It's boring, but shooting free throws is one of a way to shut down a team's fast break attack.

[coyotes_geek]

Also need to hope that the refs let the players play. A tightly officiated game doesn't bode well for us. I'm not sure the Spurs can win a game where the mavs get to the free throw line 30+ times.

[scottspurs]

Bonner is done as a Spur if he continues to play like he is. With a contract on the line you would think he would be highly motivated to prove something.

[Muser]

The Mavs are great at denying the 3, if we play Phoenix there will be a lot more open looks.

[coyotes_geek]

Bonner is done as a Spur if he continues to play like he is. With a contract on the line you would think he would be highly motivated to prove something.

IMO Bonner's problem is that he's too motivated. He's not out there dogging it. He tries hard. I think he's just putting too much pressure on himself.

[oligarchy]

Also need to hope that the refs let the players play. A tightly officiated game doesn't bode well for us. I'm not sure the Spurs can win a game where the mavs get to the free throw line 30+ times.

..they're shooting 82.6% from the line in the series. The Spurs are shooting 71.1%

[slick'81]

agreed of the spurs want to have anything left for phoenix they need to end this series now.

[TIMMYD!]

Agree with you on the TP part, he needs to attack early on.

Also agree with Harlem on closing out Terry, we're letting him get those corner threes too easily.

[oligarchy]

Bonner is done as a Spur if he continues to play like he is. With a contract on the line you would think he would be highly motivated to prove something.

He is motivated, but he's a thinker. He can't get out of his own head. If he could play without thinking, it would be a different story.

[scottspurs]

IMO Bonner's problem is that he's too motivated. He's not out there dogging it. He tries hard. I think he's just putting too much pressure on himself.

I have nothing against the effort, but sometimes it comes down to execution.

At least Bonner didn't quit on the spurs like Mason or Finley.

[dbestpro]

There will be quite a few fouls called which normally would favor Dallas. I think Dallas, however wil over react and try to play physical which will put SA on the line. I think if Dallas just played their normal game they would win because it will be called like game one where the agressor is penalized. In the end we have to hit our freee throws.

[FalleNxWiZarDx]

let manu continue to handle the ball more then Tparker...

get RJ going early,

rest timmy a little more and play grizzly blair a bit more


you guys should be fine...


go spurs!

[Mark in Austin]

I would add that they need to keep better track of Terry - when he manages to find his way to the corners for open threes it seems like he's automatic. I would rather have a possession where Dirk is single covered than have the double come from the man defending Terry.

[scottspurs]

I would add that they need to keep better track of Terry - when he manages to find his way to the corners for open threes it seems like he's automatic. I would rather have a possession where Dirk is single covered than have the double come from the man defending Terry.

Yeah, when Tony Parker left Terry open for 3 in the corner late in game 4 I almost broke my coffee table. IMHO we can't leave Terry/Kidd/Dirk open for three, but everyone else let em fly.

[HarlemHeat37]

Regarding the 3 point shooting, I think you've got to give the mavs a little bit of credit for closing out on the shooters. The Spurs didn't shoot the 3 worth a damn against them in last year's series either. The pattern has gone on long enough to where I don't think it can just be dismissed as a fluke. The mavs can't defend 1 on 1, so emphasizing closing out on the 3's is about the only chance they've got to slow down the Spurs offense.

They're an above average team at defending the 3, and I agree that they deserve credit for the way they've defended the 3 in this series, but I think there will be a problem with the Spurs' shooting against any team IMO..

This team doesn't have too many shooters in general..

Hill only makes 3s at a high rate from the corners, he's mediocre from everywhere else..Manu is a very good shooter, he hasn't shown it yet in this series, but I'm not too worried..

After that, it's iffy..Bonner is one of the most unreliable players in the NBA, and he's supposed to be the primary shooter on this team..Mason is done and won't play anyways..Jefferson isn't reliable enough from 3, and he's primarily a corner 3-point shooter as well..

The Spurs are gonna struggle with 3-point shooting no matter the opponent IMO..while the team has fixed the other flaws that we've seen all season, the 3-point shooting has now become an unexpected flaw..personally, I like that this team isn't relying as much on 3s, but they're gonna have to start making them at some point..

[DBMethos]

Man, if Bonner did anything tonight it would be a huge bonus...it could also greatly boost his confidence going forward, when his 3 point stroke would definitely be needed.