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I don't buy their dismissal of the hot prospect versus the two average roll players. The prospect could go nowhere but the two average roll players aren't guaranteed to produce wins either. You do your research and hope for the best.
The Wages of Wins Journal has a couple of interesting pieces on Elite Rookies.
David Robinson is #1 for the Top 33 Rookie Performances from 1977-78 to 2009-10. Duncan is #5 on that list.
It's a fairly detailed analysis, hit the links for their breakdown.
Finding Elite Rookies in the NBA Draft or How the NBA Draft is a Lottery
The Top 33 Rookies in the Past 33 Years
I don't buy their dismissal of the hot prospect versus the two average roll players. The prospect could go nowhere but the two average roll players aren't guaranteed to produce wins either. You do your research and hope for the best.
Unless I'm missing him I don't see LeBron on the list. Ouch.
In the comments, the author says that LeBron just missed the cutoff; his rookie WP48 was 0.096.
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