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There are a lot of "ifs" relating to Bostons chances of winning.
Considering they lost Perk, and the fact that the refs will heavily favor the home team I can't see the Celtics having more than a 30% chance to win this game.
There are a lot of "ifs" relating to Bostons chances of winning.
I'd say about 1:2 odds, so a 1 in 3 shot, or 33.33%, right about where you think as well.
Pretty much hinges on them shooting the basketball well, which they really haven't done most of the series, and an unexpected contributor like Glen Davis was for that one game or Rasheed hitting multiple threes and rebounding decently, or Nate Robinson going off for a 12 point surge. Something like that has to happen.
Not impossible, but I think it's obvious things favor the Lakers right now.
40%-60%.....perhaps moving to 45%-55% by tomorrow afternoon.
Im with Cully I give them a 40 - 45% shot ...
vegas says 30%
you pretty much nailed what I was thinking.
70%
Boston has always shown they are the better team. It was actually funny seeing the Lakers all laughs and smiles yesterday as if they already won the le. Its going to be a rude awakening for Laker fans...
Really?
Please enlighten us.
Celts play well they barely win. Lakers play well we stomp them es out.
dont get me wrong we need to finish this ...
but Really the Celts are only the more consistent defensive team ... Lakers are better at most everything else EXCEPT shooting 3's
I fail to see how they are better ...
I'd give them 25%.
I'll agree with the majority and say 40/60.
Always, except in games 1, 3, and 6?
You think Boston showed it last night? Always?
I think Boston has proven they are perhaps the more resilient team when their backs are against the wall. I think this series hasn't really proven which is the better team and that's why it's 3-3 going to a game 7.
Much of it is the play of Sheed, if he can light it up from 3 and play good D on Gasol then the Celtics are in with a shot. If he lays a turd then L.A should blow Boston out.
This all depends on how the game is officiated of course. If the refs let both teams play, I see Boston winning Game 7. They are the master of physical play and dirty tactics, whether its KG's illegal screening or Tony Allen's constant grabbing of Kobe's arm and jersey or simply outhustling the entire Lakers frontline. Everytime this happens, the Lakers lose poise and focus with their game plan. Instead of retaliating by employing the same physical play they seem to get pre occupied with how the Celtics are getting away with rough play. The team then reverts to their 2008 form and wilt under pressure. After this they become very predictable. Kobe goes into "Ill carry the team" mode and the Celtics simply shuts the other 4 players on the court.
Once the officiating is geared towards entertainment, meaning offense oriented then the Lakers are guaranteed to win it, they have the best offensive player in the planet and the most versatile PF in the league. The problem with LA is they are full of millionaire playboys, class acts and european softies. Boston are just a bunch of s who does'nt care about looking pretty as long as they win the game. Im not discrediting the Lakers. I just think that if the game is called the way they are supposed to be in the playoffs, the Celtics brand of basketball typically wins games (hustle, defense and collective offensive effort)
By my count, the Celtics are 7-5 with a + 1 advantage in Championship since 2008. By always, I mean when push comes to shove, Boston has shown they are a cut above Los Angeles.
The past doesn't mean .
I appreciate the time and thought here ...CR.
At least you gave solid reasons. Normally I dont like ref based analysis usually because I think it always evens out over a series ...
I also dont know if you can say that one way of calling a game is right vs. another ....you yourself said the stuff the Celts do are illegal and dirty.
But I expect a good game Lakers pull away in the 3rd end up winning by 8 points ...
The Lakers are not only going to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if they run away with the game. I can't see the Celtics psychologically overcoming the loss of Perkins and knowing that, even though it's just one game, there's very little chance of winning it. They'll convince themselves they're over it, but they won't be. They know they needed him to anchor their defense and to be able to matchup with the Lakers size.
This isn't game 42 of the regular season or even game 2 of a series, where maybe a team takes you lightly (particularly the Lakers, it's not like it would be uncommon for them to do that), this is game 7 of the Finals, which means there's no chance that the Lakers take them lightly or let up at any point.
The officiating, which would normally favor the Lakers in this situation, will probably be more partial to the Celtics. They know what a massive loss Perkins is for them and they know what a big game this is for the league (will be most hyped since '98 Finals), which means they won't want it to turn into a blowout at any point, but particularly not before the 4th quarter. They also know the Celtics are thin on the front line and Wallace is a foul machine to begin with, so don't be surprised if he and they get more of the benefit of the doubt than usual. That is, unless they surprisingly control the game and have a decent lead (say, more than five points), then you can be sure that the Lakers will be getting a favorable whistle.
Rivers, barring foul trouble to Garnett, Wallace or Davis, shouldn't give Williams or Scalabrine a second of playing time. Garnett's got to give them roughly 40 minutes, Wallace 30 minutes and Davis 25 minutes.
Thanks brah.
Officiating has been better after Game 2. I agree with you, things eventually evens out, at least in this series. So the loser Thursday night really cant complain about officiating after Game 7.
Here is my thoughts:
BEFORE the series started I questioned the Celts ability to score enough to win this series. But out of respect to teh big 3 I said lakers in 7.
Rondo and Allen are two of the worst shooters in the playoffs but two of the better defenders. If they play them together that is their best defensive team
BUT
That is TWO players that do not need to be guarded away from the paint ...
I also thought our size mattered but Bynum got hurt and Pau sucked in Bostton ...
That is WHY this series has been soo tight IMHO plus the celts played GREAT defnse in Boston.
Celts stole game 2 with a HISTORIC performace from Ray ...without it I think Lakers would of won in 6 and I would of been wrong.
Ron is limiting PP even if he does not admit it ...
And even though TAllen is a better defneder than Posey ...that guy hit daggers ...same with House and Powe killed us ...
Celts miss those guys ...
40-45%... evenly matched teams, slight edge to LA because of home court.
The Perkins injury has potential to be devastating if any of the bigs are in foul trouble. Shelden Williams has no business seeing the court in a Game 7 of the NBA Finals and even 3 minutes of him could end up swinging as game.
Every key member from each team should play 40+ minutes tommorow night... KG for example has average like 31 MPG this series... needs to be 40+ for a game 7.
Agreed.
And i think your analysis is VERY good when you are not baiting Kobe fans ...
But sometimes inbetween those posts ...I can tell you know and love ball and that is why we are all here.
Dont get me wrong Ill be a prick if we win tomorrow night ...but Ill still respect ya the next day! LOL
Thanks ChrisRichards for choosing the celtics...that must mean the Lakers will win.
If Phil Jackson opens his mouth again during a timeout then the C's have a good chance
Not very good. Lakers have the momentum. Destiny/Matchups just favors them at this point. Fate isn't going to side with a team that will become average to lottery bound next season and beyond. Fate is going to side with the team on the midst of a dynasty. The Perkins injury only solidified that. Too add to it, these playoffs have been about revenge. It will conclude with that tomorrow night.
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