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KBogans is better than half those players!
Yesterday morning, small forward wasn't an area of overwhelming concern for the Spurs. However, after Richard Jefferson shocked the known basketball universe by opting out of banking $15.2 million next season, the Spurs suddenly have a dilemma.
Who will be the starting small forward in San Antonio for the 2010-11 NBA season?
The odds-on favorite remains Richard Jefferson. Common sense says Jefferson couldn't have possibly walked away from that pile of cash without parameters of a new deal already in place. It's very possible that the Spurs convinced Jefferson to opt out and take a longer contract that features more guaranteed money. If that is the case, small forward isn't much a worry.
On the other hand, there are rumors that teams with cap space galore may be after Jefferson -- namely the New Jersey Nets and the New York Knicks. If the Nets or Knicks decide Jefferson is their man, the Spurs would likely initiate a sign-and-trade so that they could receive a trade exception. By doing so, the Spurs could use the trade exception to acquire Jefferson's replacement.
A third possibility is rather bleak: Jefferson leaving in free agency and the Spurs getting nothing in return. In such a scenario, the Spurs will have to hope for a breakout season from a young player such as Malik Hairston, Alonzo Gee or James Anderson. Signing another small forward would also become necessary.
What do the Spurs need from their small forward position?
Two main aspects: defense and three-point shooting. As is, the Spurs lack a quality perimeter defender. And, as we saw in the playoffs, outside shooting is now a glaring problem for this team. Anything else from a small forward is gravy.
Here's a breakdown of the top 30 small forward options in free agency -- listed from best fit to worst fit:
Top Shelf Targets
These small forward targets will require a trade exception or at least a portion of the MLE. (Considering that Tiago Splitter is projected to warrant the MLE, let's hope the MLE isn't available for a small forward. If it is, something went horribly wrong with the Splitter negotiations.)
1. Mike Miller
Mike Miller would be a fantastic fit as San Antonio's starting small forward. First of all, he's a great shooter -- last season, he hit more than half of his field goal attempts and 48% of his three-point attempts. He is also a very good passer and capable of handling the ball. Defensively, Miller isn't great but he competes, is a good help defender and rebounds at an amazing rate for his position. To top it off, Miller doesn't use many possessions so he'd be a seamless fit. All in all, Miller is easily the best small forward target in this free agent market.
2. Josh Childress
Although Josh Childress hasn't played in the NBA the last two seasons, he's still very much on every NBA team's radar. In his four seasons in the league, Childress shot 52.2% from the floor and 36% from deep. He's also a good defender, a quality rebounder and doesn't turn the ball over. Still only 26 years old, the only question with Childress would be his outside shot. Though his mechanics aren't pretty, he should be able to shoot straight enough in the Spurs system to keep defenses honest.
3. Wesley Matthews
From undrafted to coveted free agent, Wesley Matthews is a great story. He stepped in for the Jazz last year and now appears to be a legit starting-caliber player. In less than 25 minutes per game, Matthews averaged 9.4 points and shot 48.3% from the field and 38.2% from beyond the arc. Defensively, Matthews was Utah's perimeter stopper. Despite only being 6-foot-5, Matthews' grit, guile and hustle make him a very good defender. Oh and it should be noted that Matthews was born in San Antonio and his dad played for the Spurs. That has to be worth something, right?
4. Kyle Korver
If the Spurs want shooting, it'd be difficult to find a better marksman than Kyle Korver. Last season, the 29-year-old set an NBA record by connecting on 53.6% of his three-pointers. On defense, Korver is underrated. In each of his three seasons in Utah, the Jazz allowed fewer points per possession when Korver was on the floor. He is willing to give up his body and his slow feet aren't too much of an issue as long as he's defending small forwards rather than shooting guards. The Spurs went after Korver in the past so it's definitely possible that he could be targeted again.
5. Anthony Morrow
While Miller and Korver are outstanding shooters, Anthony Morrow might be the best shooter in the entire NBA. In his rookie season, Morrow knocked down 46.7% of his three-pointers. Last year, he proved it wasn't beginner's luck by shooting 45.6% on his long distance looks. The 24-year-old was undrafted out of Georgia Tech but he has consistently produced in both of his seasons, which makes him a reasonably safe target. That said, having played in Golden State, Morrow's defense is a question mark. There's also not much info regarding how he performs under pressure or how he meshes in a winning atmosphere. But then again, with the way he shoots, signing Morrow could very well be worth any perceived risks.
6. Travis Outlaw
Travis Outlaw oozes potential. The 25-year-old has the tools to be a top notch scorer and, by utilizing his long 6-foot-9 frame, a dominating defender. However, even though he's entering the eighth season of his career, Outlaw is still a work in progress. He has developed a good three-point shot and an unblockable midrange jumper -- but his inability to dribble or pass limits his effectiveness on that end. Defensively, Outlaw can block shots and rebound at a respectable rate -- but he's a below average man-to-man defender and a clueless team defender. He'd be a great project but I'm unconvinced he'd develop fast enough to be a difference-maker prior to San Antonio's window slamming shut.
7. Linas Kleiza
Linas Kleiza played overseas last season after playing four seasons with the Nuggets. At 6-foot-8 and 245 pounds, Kleiza has the speed and bulk to play both forward positions. On the defensive end, he's nothing to write home to Lithuania about but he usually gives the effort and rebounds very well. Offensively, Kleiza shoots a lot of threes (at a decent rate) and has the ability to attack the rim off the dribble. Although he's not quite the shooter or defender the Spurs need at small forward, his overall package makes him a tempting option.
8. Josh Howard
There are a ton of red flags planted on Josh Howard. He suffered a torn ACL last season. He's had numerous off-the-court issues. His outside shooting has gotten progressively worse. He'll be 31-years-old by playoff time. He's not exactly the most dedicated teammate. All that said, Howard's stock is so low right now that he'd likely be a worthwhile buy-low target. A re-dedicated Howard would fit on the Spurs -- especially at a discounted price.
9. Ronnie Brewer
In theory, Ronnie Brewer seems like a decent option. But looking closer, he's likely to be overrated this summer. Brewer is a good defender -- but more in terms of playing the passing lanes rather than playing stout individual defense. He scores at a decent rate but he doesn't have three-point range. And strangely, his production has steadily gotten worse since peaking early in his second season in the NBA. I don't believe he'll be worth his asking price, especially for the Spurs.
10. Ryan Gomes
Ryan Gomes is another player who, like Brewer, looks good on paper but wouldn't fit San Antonio's mold. Offensively, he can play both forward positions and shoot it well from deep -- but he can't dribble or pass. On the other end, Gomes is too slow to defend small forwards and too small to defend power forwards. I'd look elsewhere.
LLE Possibilities
If Richard Jefferson walks and Tiago Splitter is signed with the MLE, the Spurs would be left standing with the LLE as their only means of wooing a free agent small forward. (The LLE has a value of $2.08 million for the 2010-11 NBA season.) Even if Jefferson returns, the Spurs may still use their LLE to strengthen their swingman depth.
11. Matt Barnes
Matt Barnes has long been a target for the Spurs. Last summer, Barnes said the Spurs were one of the teams that made a strong push for him. We could see a repeat this summer. At 6-foot-7 with long arms, Barnes has good size for the small forward position and plays above average defense. He's also an excellent rebounder and can even buy minutes at power forward. Offensively, he's an extremely streaky three-point shooter -- which would be of concern to the Spurs. The rest of his offensive game is crafty yet unspectacular. For the LLE, the Spurs really couldn't do much better.
12. Dorell Wright
Dorell Wright is a very interesting option. The Spurs actually tried to trade up and acquire him in the 2004 NBA Draft. It wasn't until last season that Wright really started blossoming as a player. He can now shoot three-pointers (38.9% last year) and his feel for the game is much improved. Defensively, he uses his length (6-foot-9) and athleticism well. At 24, Wright still has a lot of time to continue to improve. The issues? Wright has an increasingly bad rep as an immature player off the court that includes a recent brush with the law. If the Spurs were to sign Wright, they'd have to overlook his questionable character.
13. Rasual Butler
Though not an exciting target, Rasual Butler would likely get the job done. He can defend and shoots threes at a decent 36.3% clip for his career. Butler does virtually nothing else but since those are the two characteristics the Spurs need out of their small forward position, the 31-year-old out of La Salle makes sense on a small scale.
14. Tony Allen
When it comes to defense, there's not a player on this list better out on the perimeter than Tony Allen. He's definitely a lockdown one-on-one defender. His offense, though, really makes it questionable whether he could fit on the Spurs. He has no outside jumper to speak of and his shot selection is very iffy. He rebounds well, handles the ball well, can pass ... but his shooting (or lack of) just can't be ignored.
15. Pete Mickeal
It's rare to look to Europe for a veteran small forward defender -- but that exactly describes Pete Michael. Over the years, Mickael has gained the reputation of a top flight defender whose outside shot and overall offensive repertoire is steadily improving. He's 32 years old and has never played in an NBA game so there would definitely be some risk, but it may be better to gamble on him than to go with a retread.
16. Quentin Richardson
Quentin Richardson hit a lull in his career but last season was his best season in a long time. He hit a career-high 39.7% of his three-point attempts and his shot selection was much improved. After getting back into good shape, his defense went from horrible to average. Richardson's two main flaws are his lack of footspeed on defense and his chucker-like ways on offense. Both areas improved last season but he's still someone who probably wouldn't fit quite right.
17. James Jones
After a quality 2007-08 season in Portland, James Jones has fallen off the map following his two injury-plagued in Miami. Jones main quality is his shooting: 41.1% last year from three-point land and 39.5% for his career. At 6-foot-8, Jones' length is an asset on defense, however his lack of quickness makes him an average defender overall. The biggest strike against Jones is the lack of data. He has played so sparingly over the last two seasons that it's difficult to forecast if he's still a legit NBA player.
18. Bobby Simmons
Bobby Simmons is coming off of a dreadful season with the Nets but he has enough recent production that he must be considered. In 2008-09, Simmons shot 44.7% on three-pointers and has hit better than 40% of his threes during his career. He specializes in hitting threes from the corners, which would work well in San Antonio. Defensive is a problem, however. He doesn't move well out on the perimeter and has developed a number of bad habits over the years. Signing with the Spurs could re-invigorate his career ... but that's far from a guarantee.
19. Tracy McGrady
Do the Spurs roll the dice and pray that Tracy McGrady's knee somehow heals enough to allow him to return to respectability? Due to character concerns, probably not. But it would be an interesting swing-for-the-fences move.
20. Jarvis Hayes
Jarvis Hayes has good size for the small forward position but his soft play makes him seem smaller than his 6-foot-8 listing. He's a spot-up shooting specialist who only hits for a decent percentage (35.6% on threes for his career). Defensively, his soft play is compounded by slow feet. Even though he's still only 28, Hayes shows no upside. Overall, he'd be a safe signing but there really is little hope of him being a championship-quality rotation player.
Bottom of the Barrel
These players should be able to be had with a minimum contract.
21. Bostjan Nachbar
After spending the last two years in Europe, Bostjan Nachbar reportedly wants back in the NBA. At 6-foot-9, Nachbar has good size for the position -- and that lets him get off his shot at any time. He has a career three-point shooting of 37.5% and rebounds well ... but that's about the extent of his usefulness. The Slovenian struggles mightily to defend both forward positions. Considering that he didn't perform well at times in Europe last season, Nachbar would probably have to settle for the minimum if he wishes to play in the NBA next season.
22. Rodney Carney
Rodney Carney is your prototypical athletic prospect who has just never put it together. A lack of natural instinct on the court is what really holds him back. He can run fast, jump high, shoot decently, defend adequately ... but nothing has stood out enough for him to warrant consistent minutes on the NBA level. He's still only 26 years old so the possibility for improvement remains.
23. Stephen Graham
A former Spurs training camp invite, Stephen Graham played 70 games under Larry Brown last year and was oftentimes utilized as a defensive stopper. That alone makes him a candidate for a minimum contract. He hit 49.6% of his shots from the field but only 32% of his three-pointers. He's unlikely to get much better so another minimum contract lies in his future.
24. Alan Anderson
The Spurs have had interest in Alan Anderson in the past and he recently got waived by Maccabi Tel Aviv. He's regarded as a good defender who can also rebound well for his size. While he's a decent passer, Anderson has a history of forcing bad shots -- and that would make him a risky signing in this system. Since he's a free agent, he could be a worthwhile candidate to check out in summer league.
25. Devin Brown
Good ol' Devin Brown. It's likely that he burned his bridges back to his hometown of San Antonio but he's still chugging along in the NBA. Brown is a decent shooter and a decent defender at this stage of his career so it wouldn't be totally surprising to see him back in silver and black again.
26. Antoine Wright
He's been labeled as a defensive stopper ... but that's due to Antoine Wright's offense being so bad that there had to be some sort of excuse for why he has played so much in recent years. In truth, Wright is a slightly above average defender who isn't much help at all on the other side of the court. Unless the Spurs really value his defensive potential, it'd be difficult to justify the signing.
27. Joey Graham
Joey Graham is like a bigger, stronger version of his twin brother Stephen -- except he can't shoot at all and is surprisingly soft despite his strong build. His bulk makes him a liability against quick players on defense and his offensive game never developed.
28. Dominic McGuire
Outside of Tony Allen, Dominic McGuire is probably the best defender on this list. He's six feet and nine inches of energy on the defensive end. Built like a pterodactyl, he can guard multiple positions and really rebound the ball. Unfortunately, there's one gigantic flaw to his game: he can't shoot. At all. He didn't even attempt a three-pointer last season and was 0-for-5 at the line. Nobody who played more than 28 games scored as infrequently as McGuire did last season. That lack of offense is a deal breaker.
29. Keith Bogans
Ah, the centerpiece. After getting heaps of praise from Pop, Keith Bogans was a total non-factor in the playoffs. Even when he got good minutes in the regular season, he proved to be a bad offensive player who really wasn't that good on defense, either. I don't see a reason to bring Bogans back.
30. Damien Wilkins
Damien Wilkins is now a fringe NBA player. He scores infrequently and does so with poor efficiency. He's not a good shooter or defender. He has a good feel for the game but there is only so far intangibles can take a player.
Last edited by timvp; 07-02-2010 at 01:11 AM.
KBogans is better than half those players!
Mike Miller stirs up Lakers interest:
Lakers open discussions with Miller
* Comments16
By Dave McMenamin
ESPNLosAngeles.com
Archive
LOS ANGELES -- The Lakers have opened discussions with free-agent swingman Mike Miller although no contract has been offered, a source close to the situation said Thursday.
Miller, a former NBA rookie of the year and sixth man of the year, averaged 10.9 points on 50.1 percent shooting from the field and 48.0 percent shooting on 3-pointers last season for Washington in his 10th season in the league.
Miller would provide a sure outside stroke that the Lakers have lacked in recent seasons and help shore up a bench unit that could lose up to 22.5 points per game in scoring if free agent reserves Shannon Brown, Jordan Farmar, Josh Powell, D.J. Mbenga and Adam Morrison all leave for new horizons.
read more..
Jefferson brought neither. He wasn't even average at either of those.
Yet people are clamoring to bring him back at absurd amounts.
what ever happened to devin brown why did he leave the spurs? he was one of my favorite spurs players ever.. yea but anyways i still say were ok with hariston and gee, and maybe we get tony allen25. Devin Brown
Good ol' Devin Brown. It's likely that he burned his bridges back to his hometown of San Antonio but he's still chugging along in the NBA. Brown is a decent shooter and a decent defender at this stage of his career so it wouldn't be totally surprising to see him back in silver and black again
Damn steep dropoff after #14
Yeah and name a player with the money they'd have available for a starting forward that would be better?
You can't cause there is none.
hariston>jefferson, all yall supporting jefferson tell me what the he brings that is better than malik, cuz it damn sure aint jefferson's defense,offense,
lol bogans should be up the list fckn haters
NO! That's part of what has been wrong with this team the past few years! Spurs small has been proven ineffective.
money and lack of training
Uh afraid to tell you, but there are times where you have play small ball.
LJ, where do you rate in this top 30?
That might be true, but in no system is Matt Barnes a power forward.
In any case, if we play any small ball this coming year, it better be with players that can actually run fast.
My opinion on small-ball is that if a team goes small, you have to hurt them in the paint with bigs. If Splitter can help us out with this we'll have to play less small ball.
Sigh..... Its not about systems its about matchups..
Sigh...
I get that, but just because you trot four guards out onto the court, it doesn't make one of them a power forward.
Are you telling me he's gonna defend a power forward in the paint?
I mean, maybe he can. I don't know. I just rather he wouldn't have to if he came here.
Solid list and thread.
Here's to hoping that the Spurs come out all right:
The Spurs that year only had money from the MLE left over after Oberto to sign a player. They offered it to Finley, Brown was the back-up plan if Finley had chosen Miami or PHX.
ANY player who can do one of two things as listed by timvp would be better: play even above average defense or shoot 3 pointers well.
Jefferson doesn't do either. If he's not defending . . . and he's playing soft . . . and he's not even stepping beyond the three-point-line . . . and he's not going to be the team's 4th or even 5th best scoring option (that would be Hill and Splitter) . . . then why bother signing him at such absurd amounts?
@ thinking you can get a starting small forward for LLE....
Solid summaries.
Although I think a lot of these prospects are very unrealistic.
Last edited by MaNu4Tres; 07-02-2010 at 02:12 AM.
lol devin brown aint even worth LLE
i throw him a minimum contract see if he bites
If Jefferson was soooo crucial to the Spurs success, then he would have been finishing games for them, being clutch in crunch-time right?
Except for how he wasn't for half the games when I look back at the play-by-plays.
Game 4 against PHX - 3:26 left in the 4th, Spurs only down 7 in a winnable game, RJ is pulled
Game 3 against PHX - he sits the whole 4th quarter until 1:30 when garbage time kicks in and Pop pulls the important Spurs
Game 2 he plays
Game 1 he sits in the 4th while the Spurs cut the lead by 9 when he gets put in with 3:30 to go, and does nothing
Against the Mavs - Game 6- he sits the last 6 minutes of the 4th in what was a 4 point game
game 5 is a blowout, no one plays
Game 4 - he plays
game 3 - he's benched the entire 4th except for garbage time with 30 seconds left
game 2 - he plays
game 1 - he plays
How is he so crucial when nobody can even say with a straight face that Jefferson is a rock solid, set in stone piece of the Spurs closing 5? Pop's more likely to go Duncan-Splitter-Ginobili-Hill-Parker.
If we're going to spend our MLE to Splitter, half of the players in this list can be eleminated.
See how far in the playoffs you go with Rodney Carney starting at the 3 with your LLE.
But hey, he aint no evil Richard Jefferson mistah!!!
Try 75%
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