Miles Austin has seized the WR crown
Andre Johnson isn't even the best receiver in his state anymore
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Joyner By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
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Getty ImagesIf the Cowboys are to reach a Super Bowl in their stadium, Miles Austin needs to play a huge role.
One of the methods that former college football coach Bear Bryant used to settle positional battles early in his coaching career was the "challenge system." This allowed any player to call for a one-on-one battle with a starter. The two would go head-to-head in a variety of areas (blocking, tackling, receiving, etc.) to see who was the best at executing the key responsibilities of the position. The winner would claim the prize as starter.
If such a system existed in the world of statistical analysis, there would be many potential challengers to Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson for the le of best wide receiver in the NFL. Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne all would serve as worthy foes for Johnson, but surprisingly enough, none of them would rank as the No. 1 contender.
The real compe ion for Johnson as the NFL's premier wideout comes from within the state in which he plays pro football. Many might not consider Miles Austin to be an elite wideout yet, but he actually had a better set of metrics than any of the three other aforementioned contenders this past season.
So did he do enough last season to beat the perceived champion for the belt?
Andre Johnson
Andre Johnson
#80 WR
Houston Texans
2009 STATS
* Rec101
* Yds1569
* TD9
* Avg15.5
* Long72
* YAC532
To find out, let's do it like Bryant's players and run a 10-stage challenge. We'll compare both Austin's and Johnson's yards per attempt (YPA) metrics in 10 main receiving categories. At the end, whoever has the most victories will win the honor of best wide receiver in the NFL.
A full chart follows the breakdown by category.
Short passes (thrown downfield 10 yards or fewer)
Austin's 9.4 YPA topped Johnson's 6.0 mark by more than a 50 percent margin. That is enough to give him a win, but it is also worth noting that Austin didn't just beat Johnson in this metric but also led the entire league in this category.
Challenge status: Austin 1, Johnson 0
Medium passes (11-19 yards downfield)
OK, so Austin wins on dinks and dunks, but can he beat Johnson on the deep out, deep in and comeback routes that make up the bulk of the medium-depth patterns? Not exactly, but he didn't lose to him, either. Austin and Johnson both gained 12.1 YPA on medium routes last season.
Challenge status: Austin 1, Johnson 0, 1 tie
Deep passes (20-29 yards downfield)
For most receivers, the deeper the pass, the more likely it is they would lose to Johnson, but Austin won this category as well. His 20.3 mark ranked ninth in the league and nearly doubled Johnson's 10.9 YPA.
Challenge status: Austin 2, Johnson 0, 1 tie
Bomb-length passes (30 or more yards downfield)
Go patterns are the kings of this route depth, and this is where Johnson starts to make his stand. His 26.1 YPA ranked seventh in the league overall and second among wideouts with 10 or more bomb attempts. It also nearly doubled Austin's 13.8 YPA mark.
Challenge status: Austin 2, Johnson 1, 1 tie
Vertical (all medium, deep and bomb passes)
Johnson's lead in the bomb-pass category helped vault him over Austin in this all-encompassing category, but not by much. Johnson posted a 14.5 YPA mark, ranking 10th in the league, while Austin checked in with a 13.7 YPA total (which ranked 15th).
Challenge status: Austin 2, Johnson 2, 1 tie
Overall YPA (all route depths)
Johnson's bomb-pass prowess helped him close enough ground to win the vertical category, but it wasn't enough to overcome Austin here. Austin's 11.2 overall YPA mark ranked fourth and was more than a yard ahead of Johnson's 9.9 YPA total.
Challenge status: Austin 3, Johnson 2, 1 tie
Miles Austin
Miles Austin
#19 WR
Dallas Cowboys
2009 STATS
* Rec81
* Yds1320
* TD11
* Avg16.3
* Long60
* YAC588
In the portion of this challenge based on depth of the pass route, Austin is the winner -- but distance alone is not the only indicator of how good a receiver is. Another way to measure receiving excellence is to see how well each wideout did when facing varying levels of compe ion.
I went through the breakdown charts I did for every game from the 2009 season and pulled out the plays on which a receiver faced a cornerback. I then assigned color-coded grades to the cornerbacks based on their 2009 YPA totals (which can be found in the KC Joyner Metricmania section in the 2010 ESPN The Magazine fantasy football preview).
Against cornerbacks who yield YPAs of 7 yards or fewer on average (red-rated CBs)
Austin was hardly fazed by elite compe ion, as he posted 12.0 YPA against them. Johnson's 8.0 YPA in this category ranked 18th in the league but didn't keep up with Austin's total.
Challenge status: Austin 4, Johnson 2, 1 tie
Against CBs who yield 7-9 YPA on average (yellow-rated CBs)
Austin put up 9.8 YPA here versus Johnson's 6.9. Another win for Austin.
Challenge status: Austin 5, Johnson 2, 1 tie
Against CBs who yield 9 or more YPA on average (green-rated CBs)
Johnson was very good at dominating overmatched cornerbacks, something shown by his 14.6 YPA. He wasn't as good as Austin and his 17.7 YPA, however.
Challenge status: Austin 6, Johnson 2, 1 tie
Against CBs in general
With wins in all three color-coded cornerback categories, it is obvious Austin won this part of the challenge as well (13.4 YPA versus Johnson's 9.9 mark), but just as was the case on short passes, it is worth noting that Austin ranked No. 1 in the league in this metric.
It also means he won the compe ion by a score of 7-2-1.
Here's the full breakdown, minus the category of "vertical" from above and organized by YPA.
The Texas battle
Here's a full breakdown of Andre Johnson versus Miles Austin in several key metric categories, as graded by YPA (yards per attempt). The colors associated with cornerbacks are explained within the article above and within the 2010 ESPN The Magazine fantasy football preview.
Name Short Routes Medium Routes Deep Routes Bomb Routes Overall Routes Vs. Red CBs Vs. Yellow CBs Vs. Green CBs Vs. CBs overall
Miles Austin 9.4 12.1 20.3 13.8 11.2 12.0 9.8 17.7 13.4
Andre Johnson 6.0 12.1 10.9 26.1 9.9 8.0 6.9 14.6 9.9
Some might say these categories don't tell the whole story, but Austin also beat Johnson in yards per reception (16.3 to 15.5), touchdown receptions (11 to 9) and success percentage (69.4 percent to 64.6 percent).
Simply put, as great as Johnson is, in 2009 he not only wasn't the best wide receiver in the NFL, but wasn't even the best wide receiver in Texas. That honor belonged to Austin.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is also the author of "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts.".
) has spoken and sealed the cowboys fate.
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