NBA Western Conference odds and projections
By Ashton Grewal
Covers
It’s been a busy offseason in the NBA and all the talk, when it hasn’t involved LeBron James’ “decision” it’s been about the Eastern Conference getting stronger at the expense of the West, and for good reason.
Amar’e Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer both moved to the East and Carmelo Anthony sounds like he’ll be the next to jump ship. The rocky state of the Western Conference presents value for NBA future bettors.
The Los Angeles Lakers are the heavy favorites to win the West but there are a number of teams who could get the Purple and Gold a huge challenge in the postseason.
Here’s a look at the five talented clubs and whether they’re worth a futures play:
Odds courtesy of BetUS.com
Oklahoma City Thunder (+600)
The Thunder finished eighth in the conference last season and now all of a sudden they jump to the second choice behind Kobe’s Crew to win the West. Seems like an over adjustment when you word it like that but let’s go over the reasons why OK City’s odds changed so drastically.
Kevin Durant is the big reason. The guy proved last season he’s the best pure scorer in the league. Long-range, in the post, off the dribble, hitting the glass… he does it all. He’s just a natural scorer.
Russell Westbrook is a fantastic complementary piece next to KD. His combination of speed and athleticism make him the best two-way point guard in the league.
The Thunder need more for Jeff Green this year. He looked awkward and out of place last season but he needs to be that reliable third option on offense for Oklahoma City to really challenge.
I love their youth, enthusiasm and their rowdy home crowd; I just worry about Durant and Westbrook getting tired at the end of the season because of their time with Team USA over the summer.
I don’t think you can pass up an opportunity to back the clear No. 2 team in the conference at 6-to-1 though. Sign me up on OK City.
Houston Rockets (+1800)
This really comes down to how much you expect the Yao Ming to give Houston this season. He sat out all of last season with that foot injury and, while he’s worked hard at his recovery, he’s also made noises about retiring in the near future.
That’s not a good sign.
Still, at 18-to-1 the Rockets have some value. They’ve got an All-Star caliber backcourt with Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin, an active group of swing men (Shane Battier, Courtney Lee, Chase Budinger) and depth in the pivot behind Yao (Brad Miller, Patrick Patterson, Luis Scola).
These guys might be worth a flier with the long odds. Best play might be to wait and see this team's season win total. I like the over on the Rockets if the books go 45 or lower.
Utah Jazz (+1500)
Seeing Carlos Boozer leave hurt but Wesley Matthews will probably be the toughest hole to fill. The Jazz did a nice job of replacing their All-Star big man by trading for Al Jefferson. Big Al should be able to step in and match Boozer’s offensive numbers.
Utah’s real weakness is on the wing. Matthews and long range sharpshooter Kyle Korver are both gone and the Jazz are relying on C.J. Miles, Raja Bell and rookie Gordon Hayward to play the bulk of minutes at shooting guard and small forward.
They need a big season from Hayward. If the former Butler standout can’t knock down 3-pointers consistently, the Jazz will be in big trouble.
Still, the combination of Deron Williams and Jefferson should be fun to watch.
Probably want to pass on a Utah futures play this year.
San Antonio Spurs (+1000)
They’re old, we know that. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are north of 33 but this team has done a fantastic job through free agency and the draft of injecting youth to the core.
Brazilian import Tiago Splitter sounds like the real deal. A legit center who can play behind or beside Duncan. Youngsters George Hill and DeJuan Blair contribute whenever they’re on the court and Antonio McDyess is still an effective defender, rebounder and mid-range shooter.
The X-factors for San Antonio are Richard Jefferson and Tony Parker. Jefferson seemed lost in his first year with the Spurs but played better down the stretch. He should have a better feel for the offensive system in his second year.
Parker is the real wild card. He’s a top 5 point guard in the league but he didn’t play like it a year ago. He wasn’t attacking the hoop with the same type of conviction and he lost confidence in his jump shot.
Gregg Popovich is the best coach in the league, hands down. He will sacrifice regular season wins to keep his guys fresh for the postseason.
I like this play the best. Spurs at 10-to-1 seems like a solid value bet.
In order for the Spurs to contend this year, they are going to have to improve the defense. In their championship years, the Spurs' opponents shot below 45%. Against the 2004 Spurs, oppenents shot only 41% against them. These Spurs will no longer keep their opponents without a field goal for 6 min stretches, but they have more firepower so they will not have to for every game. But,for the Spurs to advance to the finals, they should hold their opponents to around 43% or 44%.
Outside of health this is what needs to happen:
be a top defensive team. The day of bein elite are no longer possible w/o great perimiter defense, but they can still be one of the best in the league. Just don't expect one of the best ever like we used to be.
RJ needs to defend better and be able to play off of Parker better. the latter basically means that he'll have to hit down open outside shots that come from penetration.
Splitter has to prove he's worthy of being a starter. Spurs aren't going to win it all with Dice starting.
there's more that I hope happens but these are the big 3
with this roster Spurs can be a decent to good defensive team, but no way they can become a top defensive team. to get there they would need two pieces. the often discussed perimeter stopper AND a very mobile big, who can also block shots at a high rate. (AK47 type defender. the 2006 version)
even if Tiago is better on defense than expected, he won't provide that kind of defense.
with this roster and assuming that the young players like Blair und Hill improve their defense and that Tiago doesn't need a whole season to adjust to NBA rules and style on defense, Spurs could get to #6-#9 in the defensive rankings IMO. if we are in fact #6, I would be very happy.
The Spurs were champions in '07 but the outlook of the NBA has changed. The Lakers added Gasol and Fisher controversially, and then Artest. The Celtics added Garnet and Allen, also they have consistently picked great players with mid or late first rounders in the draft. This season, Miami has added LeBron, Bosh and Miller.
Success formulas that worked in the past won't necessarily work for the next season.
The Lakers were unable to outrebound the Thunder, but they played better defense. The Lakers were unable to stop the Suns but they were able to outrebonud and outscore them. They were unable to play as good defense as the Celtics, but they still played solid defense and were able to outrebound them. Those teams imposed their rhythm and still lost.
Compared with the Lakers, the Spurs played similar defense against the Suns, but were unable to play more efficient offense and outrebound them. So, what failed was actually the offense and the rebounding.
During the 2007 run, the Suns were able to score +100 points on the Spurs 4 times, the only game they failed to score 100 was with Amare and Diaw suspended. The Spurs still won the series, because that team was able to outscore the Suns.
To win championships, the team must be able to adapt to different styles. Be good at both offense and defense - in the playoffs. Both need improvement over the last season.
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