Spurs-Suns Breakdown
Marty Burns, SI.com
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CENTER
Other than Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire is the key to the Suns. The 6'10" center is a force at both ends, attacking the basket on offense and blocking shots on D. He loves to run the pick-and-roll with Nash, forcing teams to either switch a smaller man on him or leave him free to sink the open jumper. He's coming off a terrific series against the Mavs (28.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks), but he can be knocked out of rhythm by double teams and foul trouble. Nazr Mohammed has come up big for the Spurs in the postseason (8.0 points, 7.5 rebounds, 57.4 percent during playoffs), but he'll have his hands full here. He also might have to help out on the smaller, quicker Shawn Marion if the Spurs decide to use Tim Duncan on Stoudemire. Either way, Mohammed is going to have to hit the boards and get some easy baskets inside to make Phoenix pay for going small.
EDGE: Suns
POWER FORWARD
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Recently voted NBA first-team for the eighth time, Duncan is the game's biggest low-post threat outside of Shaq. He had little problem handling Seattle's brutish big men in the last series (23.7 points, 10.7 rebounds) and should be able to dominate Phoenix's smallish frontcourt, provided the sprained ankle he suffered in the finale isn't too serious. Duncan is also a shot-altering force on defense, but in this series he might find himself pulled out on the floor by the Suns' pick-and-roll sets. That means it's more important that he get Stoudemire in foul trouble and punish Phoenix inside for going small. Marion (22.5 points, 12.3 rebounds) is a versatile weapon who can run the floor. He must hit outside shots to force Duncan or Mohammed away from the basket. If he does, the Spurs could be forced to use Robert Horry or a quicker player on him.
Edge: Spurs
SMALL FORWARD
Bruce Bowen might be the NBA's best one-on-one defender. The 6'5" small forward made Ray Allen work for everything in the last series, and he won't have any fear of Quentin Richardson. Bowen might even be more free this series to help out on Nash, which would be a big help to the Spurs defense. Bowen won't score much, but he's a threat to knock down 3-pointers if left open -- especially in the corner. Richardson is one of the game's best 3-point shooters and a good defender and rebounder but he has not played particularly well in the postseason. He must hit his outside shots when open, and most importantly, help out on the defensive glass so that the Spurs can't get too many second chance points.
Edge: Suns
SHOOTING GUARD
Manu Ginobili has moved ahead of Tony Parker as Duncan's main running mate. The All-Star loves to attack the basket with a reckless style that puts foes on their heels. He ripped the Sonics (21.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists) in the last series, and should find plenty of creases against the soft Suns defense. Ginobili is also a defensive pest, with quick hands to hound Nash and others. Joe Johnson is an underrated all-around player who can be especially lethal from 3-point range. However, he sat out the last four games of the Dallas series because of a broken eye socket and it remains to be seen how effective he can be. Either way, he and replacement Jim Jackson must stay in front of Ginobili or the Suns will pay dearly.
Edge: Spurs
POINT GUARD
What more can be said about Nash? He certainly lived up to the MVP award in the last series, killing the Mavs with his scoring, rebounding, dishing and overall flawless decision-making. As in the Dallas series, he will try to carve up the Spurs with the pick-and-roll. If he can knock down outside shots when San Antonio goes under the screen, he could do a lot of damage. Tony Parker has the quickness to stay with Nash, but so did Jason Terry. Parker's bigger job will be to pressure Nash up the court as much as possible, make him work, and then try to exploit Nash's lack of defensive quickness at the other end. If Parker settles for jump shots, or takes too much of a backseat role to Ginobili, Nash will win this matchup by a mile.
Edge: Suns
BENCH
This might be the Spurs' biggest edge in this series. Robert Horry, Brent Barry, Glenn Robinson, Rasho Nesterovic, Devin Brown and Beno Udrih form one of the NBA's most versatile reserve units. They cover every dimension San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich might need. They also have vast experience. Horry could be a huge factor, since he will be called on when the Spurs have to counter Phoenix's small lineup. The Suns are thin on the bench, but Jackson (11.8 points, 3.9 rebounds) is a savvy vet who defends and can shoot the 3. He came up huge in Johnson's absence during the Mavs series, basically turning the tide in Game 5 with Nash on the bench. Leandro Barbosa, Steven Hunter, Walter McCarty and Bo Outlaw are capable, but they often provide little or nothing. With the Suns starters logging such heavy minutes, they'll need to at least hold down the fort for brief stretches.
Edge: Spurs
COACHES
This series features two of the last three Coach of the Year winners in San Antonio's Gregg Popovich (2003) and Phoenix's Mike D'Antoni (2005). Popovich is a proven winner, with two NBA les in six years. His teams are always well-prepared and he has a great feeling for the pulse of his squads. He isn't afraid to make changes on the fly, as he did when he put Ginobili back in the starting lineup late in the Sonics series. D'Antoni is less of a proven commodity, but he has kept the Suns on a steady plane all year and they haven't missed a beat so far in the playoffs. D'Antoni also has loads of experience from coaching in Europe, so he's not likely to be schooled in the Xs and Os.
Edge: even
X-FACTOR
Few active players have been in more big games and hit more big shots than Horry. The 6'10" reserve forward has five NBA championship rings from his days with the Rockets and Lakers. Against a Suns team that uses a small lineup, he could find himself on the floor a lot. His ability to help defend inside, crash the offensive boards and hit those dagger 3-pointers could be crucial. For Phoenix, keep an eye on McCarty. Though not a postseason hero on the Horry level, the 6'10" veteran was a valuable contributor and shot-maker on three straight Celtics playoff teams in recent years. He hasn't played much but he could find himself in an increased role here if Duncan gets Stoudemire and Marion in foul trouble.
Edge: Spurs
INTANGIBLES
The Suns are riding high after finishing with the NBA's best record and then dispatching the Grizzlies and Mavs, respectively, in the playoffs. They also have home-court advantage, which could be crucial if the series goes seven games. With the NBA's best road record at 31-10, they might not be as fazed by having to play at the SBC Center, where the Spurs were an NBA-best 38-3. But Phoenix is also thin in terms of depth and Nash might be a bit weary after an emotional series against his former team. The Spurs, meanwhile, are an experienced veteran club that takes its cue from Duncan. They won the season series 2-1 (with Duncan and Ginobili sitting out the loss), so they should be confident.
Edge: even
PREDICTION
The Suns have an inspired Nash and enough firepower to score 100 points a game even against the Spurs. But their weak defensive interior and lack of defensive rebounding loom large. Duncan and Ginobili should be able to exploit it, and the rest of the Spurs will clean up on the offensive glass.
Spurs in 6
Bull!! No way did D'Antoni deserve that Coach of the Year award. And you can thank the Sun-kissing voters for that.
His team had the best record in the league, not because of his coaching, but because of the players: Veteran PG, Ex-Rookie of the Year, and exploding offense.
There's no need for X's and O's for that to work.
Pop is 10 times better. No way is coaching in this series even.
I think that's a fair assessment. I think ol' Marty is underestimating Bruce,though. He will be able to cheat off of Q for sure, and hit the occassional three,(at least). But I think it is the perfect situation for Bowen to hit threes in bunches against a defense that may well be a step slow to rotate. If Parker or Ginobili can find him in the corner often enough, the Spurs will own the Suns in terms of three pointers made.
SPURS in FIVE!!(V-Bookie wish)
SPURS in SIX!!(Realistically speaking)
good article. I think Coach Popovich should have a slight edge in the coaching department because he has much playoff experience. D'Antoni has but a few games of playoff experience.
During the regular season, Nash averaged 13 and 10 on 38% shooting against the Spurs in 3 games. I know he's on a roll right now. But if Tony can play hard D, the matchup won't be as lopsided as people may think.
Spurs in 5. That's my guess. The Suns will have no answer for Manu, he will drive right by them, score, go to the line, or draw amare on him, which leaves Duncan open for the easy 2.
I also expect Parker to step up, I believe he will. This is the series where I see the Spurs coming together as a team and gaining confidence leading into the finals.
I also think TP will be big in this series. Hopefully, the confidence he gains from this series can carry into the Finals.
Oops. Am I speaking too soon? Nah.
I want to see a lot more Tim-hi-post to Nazr-low-block vs Sonics.
I was calling for Rasho to play that role from the beginning, bur Rasho just wasn't mobile enough to slip into the lanes down low.
I give the intangibles to the Suns. They had the best road record in the NBA while having home court advantage. Add Joe Johnson coming back from injury and the Sours difficulties at home (21-20 at home) as well as Duncan's OTHER ankle sprain and that gives a lot of boost to the Suns. But the Spurs fo have championship experience.
I see Nazr being a huge X-factor in this series. If he can stay out of foul trouble against Amare for any length of time, he'll be a major factor on the offensive boards. The Suns are one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league and we all know Nazr's forte is offensive rebounding. Those extra possessions could prove deadly for the Suns.
That aside, the real key to winning this series rests on Parker's shoulders. If you can limit Steve Nash, you essentially cut the head off the Suns snake. As Nash goes, so go the Suns. As Kori mentioned, if Tony can play Nash close to as well as he did during the regular season, we'll be in great shape.
I'm also somewhat glad in hindsight that Tony had a sub-par series against the Sonics. Nash isn't going to bother him defensively and the Suns are one of the easiest teams to penetrate against. I see Tony coming up strong against them.
Is Nash too quick for Bruce Bowen??
If not, I agree, TOny needs to bring the defense HARDCORE.
i see devin brown been a big factor this series, i think that he was incuded in the playoffs thinking in the matchups vs phoenix and his athlethisism to defend larger players...just hope hes healthy
Tony guarded him all through the season series and Bowen did a good job on Richardson/Johnson.
ESPN Insider Brian James will provide scouting reports throughout the NBA playoffs.
Both Phoenix and San Antonio come off emotional Round 2 victories and both could have used more rest to recover from the bumps, bruises, sprains, and even displaced orbital bones they encountered. Both are led by leaders who have the team-first mentality, and show positive reinforcement to everyone around them.
You must have your stars become superstars at this time of the year and MVP Steve Nash and Tim Duncan both hit the big shots in Game 6 of their respective series. This will be a classic matchup not only with great individual players with enormous skills, but two teams who execute their different philosophies to the fullest.
Phoenix has the league's best offense in terms of points scored and Dallas was just hoping to keep it below the 110 points that it averaged during the regular season. The Suns are also the top team in assists, three-point FG percentage, and defensive rebounding to start their track-meet break to the offensive end.
San Antonio counters with the NBA's premier defense in points allowed and third-best defensive FG percentage. They were excellent in closing out against Seattle. The Sonics depended all season on making three's as a staple of their offense and the Spurs took them out of the penetrate and pitch game to the weak side.
The injuries to Vladimir Radmanovic and Rashard Lewis were certainly a factor, but I would have bet my house that the Sonics would have more three's than the Spurs in a six-game series. San Antonio will undoubtedly clog the lane with Duncan and Nazr Mohammed more than Dallas was able to do.
So can Phoenix keep making perimeter shots with the status of Joe Johnson still in doubt? They will have to, since the Spurs intend on shutting down many of the Suns' points in the paint.
So this will be a classic matchup with San Antonio playing great team defense and Phoenix playing great team offense. These two teams played each other three times, with San Antonio winning twice. The game at Phoenix on Jan. 22 was the most exciting game I watched on television all season. Manu Ginobili totaled 48 points.
Phoenix is hoping to ride the momentum of Nash's three straight incredible games, along with Amare Stoudemire's domination in the paint. They need to quicken the pace of the game, which can cause San Antonio to have high turnover games.
Much rests with Duncan's tender ankle. He has had success with Stoudemire inside, using his size and experience to his advantage. Let's take a look at the individual matchups that will decide this exciting Western Conference final:
Point guard
Phoenix: Nash left Dallas when Mavericks owner Mark Cuban wouldn't match the six-year, $65.6 million deal Phoenix offered. Nash truly enjoyed an MVP season, leading the league in assists with 11.5 per game, nearly two more than anyone else. He is the leader of this team and the other players feed off him.
If a teammate is open, Nash will find him, even if he is dribbling the ball up the court at breakneck speed. The Suns space the floor for him and he gets the ball into the lane, creating opportunities for himself, dump-offs to Stoudemire or penetration-and-pitches to great shooters. If you force him to shoot, he makes at least 50 percent from the field and 90 percent from the line. The screen-and-roll or two-man game with Stoudemire at the elbow area is almost unguardable.
San Antonio: Tony Parker will be determined as ever to do a better job defensively on Nash than Jason Terry was able to do. But on the other end, San Antonio has had success this season making Nash fight through as many screens as possible defending Parker as well. The Spurs will run screen-roll from every possible angle to wear down Nash and create opportunities for Parker on the offensive end.
Parker must play better in this series than he did vs. Seattle, and I'm sure he will. He needs to knock down the shots off screen roll and on the kick outs from the post on Duncan's double teams. If Parker can do this, Phoenix can't concentrate solely on Duncan and Ginobili. Parker and Nash are two of the quickest point guards in the NBA who can play at the highest level.
Edge: San Antonio
Off guard
Phoenix: Indications are Joe Johnson is doubtful for Game 1, but could give it a go in Game 2. Phoenix definitely misses his 3-point shooting as Johnson is the playoff leader at 57 percent. Plus, he is the backup point guard when Nash rests.
Jim Jackson brings a wealth of experience at this spot, if Johnson can't go. Twice against Dallas, Jackson had tremendous fourth quarters to help win games for the Suns. In Game 5 against the Mavs, Jackson hit 7 of 8 shots, scoring 15 of his 21 points in the fourth. Jackson can play the 2, 3, or even small 4 and will do so in this series, if need be. He struggles at times with his passing and ball-handling, but Dallas didn't expose this too much.
San Antonio: Bruce Bowen was getting into constant verbal sparring matches with Ray Allen, thanks to his no-nonsense, in-your-face defense in Round 2. Bowen will probably go back and forth in this series between Quentin Richardson, Johnson and Jackson, depending on who is hot at the time. Bowen hasn't looked to score as much in these playoffs, but is very capable of hitting the three from the corners, where he runs to in the Spurs' early offense. This guy knows how to play and is only concerned with one thing -- winning.
Edge: Phoenix, even though Bowen is the best defensively at his position.
Small forward
Phoenix: Richardson must find his jump shot again in a hurry. Since Johnson's injury, Richardson possibly has put too much pressure on himself to contribute in his first-ever postseason. When he is on, he can score in bunches in a hurry.
He will have the task of containing Ginobili if Jackson doesn't start on him. He is athletic enough to help deny Ginobili the ball out on the wing. If Jackson starts on Ginobili, then Richardson will have to do a better job of rotating off Bowen toward the weak side to stop Ginobili's drives to the basket.
San Antonio: Ginobili is always the wild card for San Antonio. He is capable of getting the Spurs anything from 15 to 50 depending on what is given to him. If Ginobili makes a few long jumpers early, then look out. When defenders close out on him, he will simply put his head down and drive aggressively to the hole. Denver and Seattle both had a hard time keeping him out of the lane, as did Phoenix in the regular season.
Gregg Popovich brought Ginobili off the bench for eight consecutive games, so it will be interesting to see his role in this series. Regardless, he will have the ball in his hands to make the plays for himself or to feed Duncan when the game is on the line. He isn't 100 percent healthy because he is always banging bodies, but you would never know it by the way he plays.
Edge: San Antonio
Power forward
Phoenix: This is my key individual matchup. Shawn Marion is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He has had just a tremendous season playing as an undersized power forward. He and Nash simply took over Game 6 down the stretch in Dallas, with Marion hitting big shots from the perimeter or slipping the screen roll as Nash fed him perfectly cutting into the lane for a mid-range floater.
Marion loves to drive left and San Antonio must be aware of this. His 11.4 rebounding average and ability to create havoc defensively proves his athletic ability. The 38 points and 16 rebounds in Game 6 are playoff career bests. No doubt he will guard Duncan to start, but when Popovich subs for Mohammed, Marion will switch off to a smaller player.
San Antonio: Duncan was back to being 100 percent healthy before he tweaked his left ankle early in the fourth quarter of Game 6 on Thursday. The status of his ankle will be a huge question? Even though he didn't always shoot well in the last series, you know that he can make shots when the game is on the line. In addition, a poor first half never hinders him in the second half.
There isn't anything Duncan can't do on the basketball court, except make a high percentage of his FTs. He made most of them, however, against Seattle. He may be just too big and strong for Marion to handle inside. More than likely, Phoenix will double Duncan and then scramble and rotate out of the double teams.
Edge: Duncan, because of experience and size. But if his ankle problems persist, then Marion could make the difference for the Suns.
Center
Phoenix: Stoudemire just teased and abused the interior of Dallas' front line. With each successful outing, he couldn't wait for the start of the next game. Stoudemire will continue to set "drag" screens in transition, high or wing screen-rolls out of set plays, and roll hard to the basket. His isolations at the elbow areas will give the Spurs reason for concern as well.
If you take away his explosive dunks, layups and FTs, you have a chance to beat Phoenix. He has great hands and can catch almost any pass. Only twice in Round 2 did Stoudemire not finish with at least 30 points and 10 rebounds. He will need to come close to these numbers again.
San Antonio: Mohammed has done an excellent job as the newest member of the starting five. Mohammed hurt Seattle by punching into the lane, rolling hard after screens and knowing where the openings exist while the defense concentrates on Duncan. His length and overall size no doubt will bother Phoenix. But will he be able to stop the quick drives by Stoudamire?
Edge: San Antonio.
Bench
Phoenix: The Suns only go 7 or 8 deep in the rotation. Only Leandro Barbosa, Steven Hunter and Walter McCarty have been given opportunities to spell the starters a few minutes.
With Jackson now in a starting roll, the three players mentioned above were inconsistent at best in Round 2. Dallas attacked Barbosa at every opportunity in the post and pressured him up the floor. Hunter had a tough time slowing himself down and let the game come to him. McCarty just couldn't make a shot to keep the defense honest in Game 6.
San Antonio: San Antonio's bench will rival any in terms of quality and depth. The mark of a good bench is when one or two are in your finishing lineup. Both Brent Barry and Robert Horry have a good chance to be on the floor in crunch time. Beno Udrih, former starter Rasho Nesterovic, Devin Brown, Glenn Robinson, and Tony Massenburg round out an impressive roster.
Realistically, Popovich can call on any of them and have them produce big results in the minutes given. Barry, Horry and Robinson could be the "X" factors with the threat to stretch the defense and get hot from outside. Barry is due to break out.
Edge: San Antonio in a landslide.
Coaching
Phoenix: Coach Mike D'Antoni won the Coach of the Year award simply because he molded his philosophy to the team's talent and strengths. He didn't pound into them a system that wouldn't have a chance to succeed. Steve Nash gets a tremendous amount of credit for the 33-game improvement, but D'Antoni pushed all the right buttons in Round 2 when this series could have been in doubt.
Phoenix is the first team since 1989 to get into the Western Conference Finals after not qualifying for the playoffs the year before. A lot of the credit goes to D'Antoni. He rests his starters just enough to get them through and gives plenty of encouragement in the huddles.
San Antonio: No one does a better job of getting a game plan across to his players and having them believes in that formula of success than Spurs coach Gregg Popovich. Popovich made the right adjustments of reinserting Ginobili into the starting lineup midway through Round 2. Mohammed has played well as a starter and the right playcalls at the right time continue to win games. Popovich has three stars and surrounded them with tremendous role players. Every coach is envious of his program.
Edge: Even.
Prediction
I feel the defense of San Antonio and the depth of its roster will eventually wear down Phoenix, especially if Johnson is not able to contribute heavily as he returns. Because of the contrast in styles, there will be many spurts and momentum swings.
In the end, Phoenix migh not have enough stamina to win four games. Health will also be a major factor. I'm picking San Antonio in six games, but having to win a Game 7 in Phoenix isn't a stretch either.
Brian James, a former assistant coach with the Pistons, Raptors and Wizards, is a regular contributor to Insider.
^I like that guy.
Spurs-Suns promises a classic matchup
Charley Rosen / Special to FOXSports.com
Posted: 2 hours ago
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/3630950
It's the NBA's stingiest defense pitted against the league's most prolific offense in a wide-open baseline-to-baseline game that's packed with fascinating matchups.
CENTER
Amare Stoudemire has precipitously become a monster in the middle. All quickness and bounce, he's totally in synch with Steve Nash's eagle-eyed creativity. The Suns want to get the ball to Stoudemire while he's moving mostly in screen/rolls and timely cuts. His mid-range jumper is iffy, but when Stoudemire is only one or two dribbles away from the rim his flippers, jump hooks and devastating dunkers are irresistible.
At the same time, the 22-year-old is too inexperienced not to be rattled by aggressive double-teams. He's a reluctant passer, and defenses that are quick enough to two-time him while he's still dribbling can induce turnovers.
On defense, Stoudemire wants to block shots and that's about all he does well.
Manning the middle for the Spurs is Nazr Mohammed, a journeyman player who can rebound, dunk and net an occasional jump hook. If Mohammed is left to play Stoudemire one-on-one, he'll be destroyed. Look for the Spurs to give Mohammed all the help he needs. They might consider forcing Stoudemire baseline and then two-timing him with another big man. The Spurs sport the NBA's quickest and most precisely coordinated defensive rotations, but Stoudemire's speed in the paint will present their greatest challenge so far.
What else to do to keep this guy under control?
Be so aggressive in doubling high S/Rs that Nash is forced to retreat a step or two, and then unroll their rotation so that the middle is well-protected. At the same time, the defense has to make sure that the weak-side 3-point threat is at least two passes away. Not an easy task. If speed kills, then Stoudemire's jets are capable of mortally wounding the Spurs.
But the resourceful Spurs do have a not-so-secret weapon to use against Stoudemire Tim Duncan. It's too risky to have TD cover Stoudemire on a regular basis because of the potential for foul trouble. But Duncan, with his long arms, athleticism, impeccable timing, and uncanny instincts, remains one of the finest post-defenders in the known world. Even if he's burdened with foul trouble, look for Duncan to shadow Stoudemire in the end-game. And because of TD's experience and versatility, Stoudemire will have more trouble defending him than vice versa.
Steven Hunter plays in lieu of Stoudemire. He's a leansome 7-footer who's active in the paint but lacks strength. Hunter versus Mohammed is a wash, but it's hard to believe that Mike D'Antoni would allow Hunter to guard Duncan for more than a few minutes per game.
San Antoinio's third center is Rasha Nesterovic, an underrated player with good hands, smarts, an excellent short-range jumper, and an effective jump hook. Defense is Nesterovic's weak spot, and except for some emergency time against Hunter, Rasha will most likely remain a spectator for the duration.
The Stoudemire-Duncan clutch-time matchup favors San Antonio. Otherwise, Phoenix enjoys a monstrous advantage.
POWER FORWARD
Shawn Marion's adhesive defense ultimately turned Dirk Nowitski into a shot-botching, screaming loser. The Matrix is easily the most athletic non-guard in the league, and his first two steps are quicker than anybody's. (Did I mention that he was also the quickest off the floorboards?) Marion's defense is not the in-your-face, lock-the-door-and-swallow-the-key variety as practiced by Bruce Bowen.
What Marion does is use his spring, his quickness and his toughness to gradually wear down his opponents. Beating them to their favorite spots, recovering from convincing fakes and missteps to appear out of nowhere and still bother what appeared to be an open shot never quitting on a play. Capable of challenging an entry pass and then blocking a subsequent shot.
(And to think that he's never been elected to either the First or Second All-Defense Team!)
On offense, Marion can score 30-plus without having his number called. Running and jumping are his delights. He can catch and shoot (with exceptional 3-point range), pull-up, and or blow past just about any erstwhile defender. Marion cuts, slashes and routinely finds his way to the basket.
The pairing of Marion and Duncan will be one of the many highlights this series has to offer.
Duncan, of course, is the best of the best. Not particularly huge, strong, quick, or flashy, TD simply knows how to play. Inside, outside or in between, TD is always a threat to hit an important game-changing shot. That said, look for Marion's sheer quickness to take away Duncan's mid-range game. The logical move is for TD to take Marion into the low-post to maximize his sizeable physical advantages five inches, 45 pounds, higher shoulders, and longer arms. Marion's instant-ups might get to some of Duncan's shots, but TD will be a dreadnaught in the pivot unless Phoenix chooses to double-down.
Ah, but does Duncan (or any other power forward) have the foot speed and reflexes to chase Marion around the perimeter?
Nope. Unless Duncan guesses correctly on any given sequence, Marion will be able to shoot and/or scoot as he wishes.
Both team defenses will have to make multiple adjustments to keep Duncan from overpowering Marion inside, and Marion from blitzing Duncan from the outskirts.
Behind Marion lurks Walter McCarty, a lanky, experienced defender who can make Duncan work hard. McCarty is also an example of a shooter who needs to shoot in order to make shots in other words, his lack of playing time (game shots) has just about atrophied his hitherto fore remarkable 3-point accuracy.
Robert Horry plays power forward when Duncan is taking a breather. This guy makes plays clutch 3-pointers, rebounds, blocked shots, steals, running down loose balls whatever the situation calls for. Horry has the goods to make Marion sweat for his points (and to negate McCarty). But unless Marion is busily helping out elsewhere, he can throw a bag over Horry's offense.
In the closing minutes of a tight game, Mohammed will sit, Horry will play the 4-position, and Duncan will be the Spurs center.
Advantage, Spurs. Mainly because Marion will commit more fouls defending Duncan inside than TD will pick up while guarding Marion outside. In the end-game, however, when the matchup will be Marion-Horry, Phoenix gets the nod.
SMALL FORWARD
In the absence of Joe Johnson, Jimmy Jackson has been thrust into the breach. While there's considerable mileage on his 34-year-old legs, Jackson remains a deadly 3-point shooter, a clever (if reluctant) driver, and an adequate defender.
Jackson's post-up game (replete with deadly turn-around-jumpers) is long gone. These days, his primary function on offense is to camp out in the parking lot and wait for Nash to drop a dime in to his waiting hands. Then it's bombs away!
Opposite Jackson is Bruce Bowen, the league's most physical (did somebody say "dirty?") wing-defender. Should Bowen indeed be assigned to shadow Jackson, the result just might approach a total shutdown.
On offense, Bowen mirrors Jackson's status waiting in one corner or the other for a swing pass and then launching a 3-ball. Against Seattle, however, Bowen surprised everybody with several hard drives coupled with penetrations-and-pops. Even so, Bowen's handle is undependable. Because of Bowen's limited offense, it's quite conceivable that Jackson could also pitch a shutout.
There are several X-factors at this position: If Joe Johnson does return to action, how effective will he be? Probably not very especially when faced (even face-masked) with Bowen's rough-and-ready defense.
Another variable is the probability of Manu Ginobili putting in significant minutes at the small forward. Look for Ginobili to put Jackson in his pocket.
Brent Barry and Glenn Robinson are San Antonio's other candidates for limited duty here. Meanwhile, Quentin Richardson will fill in for Jackson, particularly if Johnson isn't ready.
Let's address all these additional combinations and permutations: Barry's reckless ventures into the paint, earnest but unsatisfactory defense, and erratic long-ball accuracy would be liabilities against both Richardson and a healthy Johnson. Barry's best chance for success on both ends of the court would come opposite Jackson. Robinson can post and shoot over any of the Suns' small forwards, but could only be effective in defense on Jackson.
The Jackson-Bowen confrontation is just about even. Phoenix enjoys a slight edge otherwise.
SHOOTING GUARD
Has anybody seen Quentin Richardson in the past 10 days? Oh, is he the guy who keeps missing 3's? The guy who takes the ball to the basket only once or twice per game? The guy who's been doing a fantastic impersonation of Claude Raines?
If the real Richardson 3-ball expert, hard-driver and smash-mouth defender continues to be AWOL, then the Suns are doomed.
For San Antonio, Ginobili has become the main generator on offense. His first move is usually a jab step to get his defender off-balance from there he wants to take the ball to the basket. Ginobili has a nifty right-to-left crossover and will drive right then spin back to his left. Although he's intent on dashing to the rim, he'll always look for a late kick-out to a shooter. Ginobili sometimes gets in trouble, though, when he leaves his feet and then tries to locate a passing option. A streaky outside shooter, Ginobili should be played soft to discourage his ball penetration that means going under any S/R that involves him.
What makes Ginobili such an effective driver is his unpredictability. His last step is long and quick, he has great arm extension, quick hops, and shows the most release points since the salad days of Bernard King.
Manu Ginobili has emerged as San Antonio's main offensive threat. (Chris Birck / Getty Images)
But Ginobili is very vulnerable on defense. His main gambit is to gamble for steals.If there's a Richardson sighting in the next 10 days, then Ginobili just might be more scored upon more than scoring himself. If not, then Ginobili will run wild.
Barry backs up Ginobili, and whether he's a plus or a minus likewise depends on the state of Richardson's chops. Leandro Barbosa backs up the 2-slot a streaky 3-point shooter with a low release, a finisher in an open field, but otherwise young and easily confused.
Considerable advantage to San Antonio, the size of which could increase or decrease depending on Richardson's visibility.
POINT GUARD
What can be added to the accolades that Nash has already received? He's easily the most dominant point guard since Magic Johnson. (Allen Iverson is a shooting guard trapped in a point guard's body.)
The only way to keep Nash from dissecting San Antonio's vaunted defense is to play him one-on-one. Let him shoot his way to another 48-point performance (which the Suns lost), make him a finisher, and keep him from being a facilitator. If he must be fouled, hammer him to the floor. And exploit as much as possible Nash's quick-handed but weakling defense.
Tony Parker has winged feet, an affinity for passing, and an ability to knock down long-range jumpers given enough time and space to settle into a spot. On a fast break, or in penetration, watch him fake left, then spin right for a duck-under flip shot. He will, however, turn the ball over in a crowd, and play gambling defense. Left to his own devices, Parker will have limited success in containing Nash.
Beno Udrih gets a short rotation at the point. He's a long-ball shooter and a surprising driver with a shaky handle, who will get eaten alive by Nash.
Barbosa backs up Nash and will have difficulty trying to solve the Spurs' half-court defense should the game ever slow down. Look for Barbosa and Udrih to spend most of their court-time battling each other to a draw.
Nash's creativity trumps Parker's championship experience and gives an overwhelming edge to Phoenix.
COACHES
Gregg Popovich is hands down the best coach in the league. Despite his two rings, he retains a passion for the game and his compe ive spirit still burns brightly. Making adjustments either in-game or between games is among his specialties.
Mike D'Antoni is on the hot seat as the temperature rises dramatically. At this stage in his career, is he capable of matching Xs and Os with a master?
Nope.
Will he have to?
Since Phoenix plays at one speed only, and has such a short bench, D'Antoni doesn't have much wiggle room to begin with. Still, in critical matchup situations, D'Antoni will most likely be reacting to whatever Popovich does.
Big advantage, San Antonio.
OVERALL
Given the season-long supremacy of the Suns' offense and of San Antonio's defense, here's something to consider: The Spurs' offense is miles better than Phoenix's defense. The deciding factor might come down to which team can generate the most (and then take fullest advantage of) turnovers. Easy scores lead to easy wins.
Also, the Spurs are a much more versatile team. They can run (though certainly not as effectively as Phoenix), and they can also thrive in slow-down situations.
So batten down the hatches, load up on your favorite snacks, and don't miss a single play of what promises to be an incredibly compe ive and entertaining series.
2000 2001 Derek Anderson gets hurt early in the second round doesnt play until the western finals game 3 where he was ineffective and little used.
04 05 Joe Johnson is hurt early in the second round and doesnt play until.....
Damn, folks im tellin ya, the similarities are UNCANNY!!!!
I can't believe this guy gave the edge to SA in the pg and center breakdowns. He's gotta be a closet Spurs homer.
Parker will be key in this series. He has thoroughly outplayed Nash in almost every outing. Manu will also have a couple huge scoring games, as he did in the regular season.
Duncan and Amare will neutralize each other, but Nazr and Horry will be huge. Rasho will also get more minutes than in the Seattle series. Amare's good, but the Spurs are so much deeper and taller at the PF/C position, and they should be able to exploit this.
The X-factor in this series is DEFENSE. As long as the Spurs play their excellent D, they win. I expected the Mavs to be able to hold the Suns to under 90 at least once. I expect the Spurs to be able to do it almost every game.
TPark, if you think this series will be anything like the beatings the Spurs took at the hands of Lakers in '01 then you're on some serious crack.
You're telling me the Spurs will sweep and the margin of victory will be about 20 points each game? Please.
And you wonder why you seem to be the forum sometimes.
2000 2001 Derek Anderson gets hurt early in the second round doesnt play until the western finals game 3 where he was ineffective and little used.
04 05 Joe Johnson is hurt early in the second round and doesnt play until.....
Damn, folks im tellin ya, the similarities are UNCANNY
Wanna show me where I said
THE SPURS WILL SWEEP AND THE VICTORY MARGIN WILL BE ABOUT 20 A GAME.
And you wonder why your the forum .
Wow. Never read so many "experts" who don't know a goddamned thing about some of the players in this series.
Yeah, and Marion gets the edge at PF is Duncan's ankles continue to hinder him.
First, if anyone needed more proof, the 2nd round against Dallas showed how Nash can't be matched right now--he's playing on a different plane of existence. How often does the MVP get matched up as the underdog?
Second, Amare has owned the Spurs this year. Mohammed didn't go against a true post-up player in Seattle or Denver. He sites a lot of "ifs" for Mohammed to defend Amare--it just isn't going to happen--especially since Amare has been on a mission to rebound in the playoffs. Some have questioned his rebounding desire in the regular season.
His match-ups were more focused on "what ifs" than analysis.
I say Spurs in 7 because Duncan will be healthy and Joe Johnson will not be. Those are what matters. Too bad San Antonio can't adopt a run and gun offense. The NBA is getting too boring and a Detroit/San Antonio Finals match-up will make me cry. Game one of that match-up should be a jaw dropping score of 62-60. Wow.
Now THAT is more damn like it!!!COACHES
Gregg Popovich is hands down the best coach in the league. Despite his two rings, he retains a passion for the game and his compe ive spirit still burns brightly. Making adjustments either in-game or between games is among his specialties.
Mike D'Antoni is on the hot seat as the temperature rises dramatically. At this stage in his career, is he capable of matching Xs and Os with a master?
Nope.
Will he have to?
Since Phoenix plays at one speed only, and has such a short bench, D'Antoni doesn't have much wiggle room to begin with. Still, in critical matchup situations, D'Antoni will most likely be reacting to whatever Popovich does.
Big advantage, San Antonio.
See, I knew there were smart writers out there somewhere...
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