The Mourning Theorem: How Manu Comes Into Play
By Kris Rivenburgh
FullSportPress.com
http://www.fullsportpress.com/artman/publish/article_1291.shtml
I predict the Phoenix Suns in seven. I want to say Spurs in six, but I don’t think San Antonio can win four out of six games against the Suns. I think Phoenix will force a game seven and use home court advantage to advance to the NBA Finals.
Oh sure, other Spurs teams could have stopped the Suns’ fantastic five, but the 2004-05 San Antonio squad has too many holes to fill against a very hungry Phoenix squad that has no fear. The method behind my reasoning is what I call the Alonzo Mourning Theorem.
Do you remember when the Miami Heat traded for Mourning and made him their franchise center? Pat Riley thought they had a championship contender but never made it past pretender status. Why was that? Because Alonzo Mourning was never capable of being a cornerstone of a championship team. He would have needed to be the subordinate superstar to complement an elite player for a real chance at the le. The Clyde Drexler to Hakeem Olajuwon, the David Robinson to Tim Duncan, the Scottie Pippen to Michael Jordan.
Instead, he was surrounded with several nice complementary players like Tim Hardaway, Dan Majerle, and Jamal Mashburn. It was a good try by Riley, but Mourning by himself wasn’t the dominant force he envisioned. Alonzo had robotic post moves, an average jump shot and a luckluster jump hook. So it was no surprise when the Heat dumped the ball down low, looking to be carried by Zo, he couldn’t deliver. He couldn’t fill the role of dominant player nearly enough.
He was a medium puzzle piece trying to be maneuvered side to side to fill that bigger gap in the puzzle. He just didn’t stretch that far. It wasn’t really his fault, it was the designer’s fault. Mourning would have had to overachieve and play beyond himself for so many games – and then he wouldn’t even really be Alonzo Mourning anymore – for the Heat to work.
After watching the Spurs against the Denver Nuggets and the Seattle Supersonics, I can’t help but think their defense has reached breaking point. San Antonio’s offense is on thin ice, too. I see the Alonzo Mourning Theorem more and more applicable.
Whereas the 2002-2003 Spurs championship team had David Robinson covering the middle half of the game, the present Spurs have Nazr Mohammed and Robert Horry taking turns at center. If necessary, Rasho Nesterovic is available to man the paint. None of those pieces fit over the long haul. Robinson had all of their best attributes, all at once on the floor. Even in his last season, he had the rebounding that Mohammed brings and the athleticism and experience Horry adds. Robison also had that legitimate center height Nesterovic was signed for, plus much better shot blocking/altering ability.
Presently, Tim Duncan doesn’t have his own ‘03-04 shot blocking or rebounding abilities. He wasn’t getting off the ground very well before he hurt his left ankle Thursday, and now I don’t even think he is capable of admonishing his normal capacities, even if he regained confidence in both his ankles.
The Spurs defense is predicated on funneling the opposition to the big men, hopefully on the baseline. The Spurs have used this basic concept since Duncan came aboard with a high rate of success. However, the Sonics, even moreso than the Nuggets, found scoring opportunities in the paint at an alarming rate. Last series, Jerome James, Ray Allen, Antonio Daniels and Luke Ridnour took turns scoring in the red zone.
The Spurs defensive scheme is subject to even more damage once the Western Conference Finals begin. Duncan’s All-First Team defense award has already looked less deserved because of his lowered lateral mobility and overall tentativeness. In fact, if Duncan perceives foul trouble, opponents have found themselves scoring at ease against him. Furthermore, Mohammed still gets lost on fundamental defensive switches and Tony Parker’s intensity and focus is anything but consistent.
Seattle exposed the Spurs defense with the pick and roll and Phoenix is likely to give the Spurs more of the same, only better. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire are a much more explosive duo than Antonio Daniels and Jerome James. Nash has been hitting shots at an unreal 52% shooting from the guard spot while dishing 11.7 assists per game. Stoudemire has been physically dominating whoever has been thrown at him.
The Spurs managed to get by the Sonics in six, but the Suns are not the Sonics. I think the Spurs are going to get ravaged by the Suns high octane offense and highlight man-child, Amare Stoudemire, will have his way with Duncan. Ultimately, the Spurs will be on their heels most of the series as the lack of athleticism and aggression in the secondary defense will lead to too many easy buckets for the Suns. Then, if the Spurs clog the lane, the Suns have three-point shooters galore, waiting and able to light up the scoreboard. Basically, pick your poison.
The Spurs continuing patchwork continues on the other side of the court. Namely in the form of one Brent Barry. He was supposed to be a cheaper, smarter Stephen Jackson with more assists and less turnovers. Instead, he may very well be the front office’s worst acquisition ever. Even worse when you compare his fear to Jackson’s fearlessness. Jackson wouldn’t be afraid to take the last shot of any game seven. Barry’s afraid to take any open shot, even if there’s only seven seconds on the shot clock. In game five, Barry literally contributed nothing statistically in 22 minutes. He likes to make the lightning chest pass then dart to another corner of the court. He likes to stand two or three feet behind the arc so that he’s not actually open for a good shot if he does get the ball.
This subs ution is coming unglued. To make matters worse, supersub Devin Brown is plagued with back problems, and so Gregg Popovich’s hand is almost forced at times. The liability that is Barry must play.
Can you see the slight of hands by Popovich in this game of player cards? Some of the switches are at least decent: Beno for Speedy, Massenberg for Willis, Glenn Robinson for Steve Smith. However, the most important changes leave the Spurs short in critical areas.
The Spurs had enough to repel Denver and Seattle but may be headed toward a meltdown against the Suns. As a team advances deeper into the NBA playoffs, Pat Riley proved you can't have X and make it work like Y. The only way is for someone to play above their head, to extend their own capacities, to match their best and then play a little bit better. It's almost like a mutant form of X, let's call it Xz.
Xz is rare, it’s an aberration, it’s an anomaly – so don’t count on it. The Mourning Theorem holds true for most of regular life, too. Exceptions do happen, but not for extended periods.
Look at it this way: Imagine taking a hardworking B student in a regular curriculum and placing him in all advanced placement classes. Then, you say anything less than straight A’s is unacceptable. He could possibly apply himself even harder and get one or two A’s, but what do you think the chances are he gets all A’s?
It takes that overachieving overachiever to accomplish what the Spurs have set out to do: Beat Phoenix and then ultimately win the championship. The Spurs have put themselves in such a position with the entailed sloppy glue work. However, if there is one person that is capable of morphing into that mutant Xz even as the stages get bigger and lights get brighter, the Spurs have him.
He began as the Spurs 57th pick in the 1997 draft. He broke into All-Star status this season and is somehow pushing his play even higher in the playoffs, averaging 21.5 points on 52.4% shooting with 5.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists in only 30.7 minutes.
He has saved the Spurs from the Nuggets and the Sonics.
He seemingly comes up with a monster game for every two or three games played.
He swishes threes, frustrates opponents, rebounds ferociously, finds teammates wide open and takes the ball strong to the hoop.
He gives everything he has.
Can the Spurs beat the Suns to four wins?
I just think there are too many holes to fill.
But, it’s not like Ginobili has never proven anyone (or the whole world) wrong.
Last edited by Kori Ellis; 05-22-2005 at 10:22 AM.
"He likes to make the lightening chess pass then dart to another corner of the court. "
Huge typo. Unless the writer is trying to compare Brent to Kasparov, I think he meant "chest" passes.
Otherwise, a good article describing how the Spurs could lose this series.
Of course, he's wrong!
So Mourning could not be the cornerstone of his team---is this writer saying tht Duncan cannot be the cornerstone of the Spurs?? What horse .
No, he's saying without a healthy Tim or other "strong-center type" player, the Spurs will lose in 7.
If Tim was healthy, I think he would have a different conclusion. Even with a gimpy Tim, he allows that Manu could once again save our ass.
Of course, he fails to mention Tony Parker (I may have missed it, if so, I apologize.) That's a huge mistake, because Tony has the ability to take it to Nash.
So, even if the Spurs give up the paint to Amare (quite possible if Tim is hurt), Tony and Manu could be enough to counter punch.
Mohammed is getting better and better, too. We may not have seen his best game yet.
So, all in all, I'm hopeful. If Tim was healthy, I'd say it was a Spurs lock. But now, I have to be a little concerned.
^ ? all i need to say
Another huge typo (or more likely, mistake). I missed that one (although it did look funny to me). Good catch.... and nice prediction, too.
Check again. Theorum isn't a word.
No entry found for theorum.
Did you mean theorem?
The best you guys can do is pick apart his spelling? This article is filled with bull .....
Yes. That's how it's spelled throughout the article. And it's correct.Did you mean theorem?
. And I look like an asshole, too. Apologies (no more beer for me!)
Still, Timvp, what do you think of his conclusions?
Folks i dont think you realize how difficult it is to write these articles. The use of comparissons is very well done. He also does a good job of tying in many different aspects.
The fact that he does not bring up TP dosnt mean hes not gona be of use in the series of course he is. But if he were to have brought in another angle he may as well have written a thesis on this.
Awesome job Kris.
I think Spurs win in six but the article had valid points.
LOL! Yes, I agree, the spelling is the least of his mistakes.
It takes that overachieving overachiever to accomplish what the Spurs have set out to do: Beat Phoenix and then ultimately win the championship. The Spurs have put themselves in such a position with the entailed sloppy glue work. However, if there is one person that is capable of morphing into that mutant Xz even as the stages get bigger and lights get brighter, the Spurs have him.
He began as the Spurs 57th pick in the 1997 draft. He broke into All-Star status this season and is somehow pushing his play even higher in the playoffs, averaging 21.5 points on 52.4% shooting with 5.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists in only 30.7 minutes.
He has saved the Spurs from the Nuggets and the Sonics.
He seemingly comes up with a monster game for every two or three games played.
He swishes threes, frustrates opponents, rebounds ferociously, finds teammates wide open and takes the ball strong to the hoop.
He gives everything he has.
Can the Spurs beat the Suns to four wins?
I just think there are too many holes to fill.
But, it’s not like Ginobili has never proven anyone (or the whole world) wrong.
AMEN
Opinions folks, he has his and you have yours. To each their own.
But I think he under-estimates Nazr in this series. Of course, it's impossible to predict, but the way Nazr is playing gives me great hope.
Of course Nazr won't be the "cornerstone" that David was or a healthy Tim is, but he could be enough.
In any case, I don't think the funadamental problem with the Spurs is the "Mourning effect", as the Spurs knew that Raso wasn't going to be Robinson. No One can replace Robinson. Well, except maybe Tim Duncan.
So really, the point of the article should be how an injured Tim makes it a tougher series. And when you put it that way, it doesn't sound very smart at all. It sounds pretty obvious.
There was an article discussing Tim's injury before this one. So should he continue with that angle? Wouldnt that become repe ive?
If you are trying to tell me that Nazr is going to do anything against Amare you gotta be kidding me. Amare is a beast and will get his own. Nazr is gona be another body the spurs are going to be able to throw at him, he will make contributions here and there, but if you are expecting big things from Nazr you have a rude wake up call.
At the PF position your most athletic guy is Robert Horry, granted i love the dude, but how often does he bring that? He is aging, and can not do that over a long drawn out series.
All the article was trying to do is make light of the holes the SA Spurs system has, you may not agree with everything in the article, but to discredit everything he has said is kinda childish.
Right, I agree with some of his points. But the premise of the article is some BS about a "Mourning effect", that is when teams build around pieces that don't fit, those teams will lose. Do you agree with my synopsis?
Problem is, the Spurs DIDN'T build a team around Nazr or Rasho. Those were pieces built around Tim! So, if Tim is the "center piece", and that piece is broken, of course the whole thing comes tumbling down.
Or am I just missing the point?
Who the reaches back to the Miami Heat from the mid 90's to make a point??
Neway if he saying that this team is being carried by Tim Duncan he's wrong, Duncan is important, but he doesn't have to make every shot for us to win. Just his presence on the court seems to lift us to a new level.
No this team is built around tim and has great peices around him such as tony and manu. But lets be honest here Rasho hasnt been much of a contribution as of late, Nazr has come in and picked up the system, even when people were screaming foul when the trade was made. But how much of an impact do you expect them to make?
That's a great point. Hopefully just a brief appearence of Tim will give the Spurs "role-players" the inspiration they need to play at a higher level.
Make no mistake, Spurs need a healthy Tim to win the series. But they COULD win one game without him.
Well, I'm a Homer, so I expect a lot.
But do you really think we need an above avg. Rasho to beat the Suns? (mind you, I don't think Raso has been playing enough to be even avg. at this point....)
But yeah, I do believe Nazr will carry more of the load. As long as we're looking at past examples on other teams, look at Antonio Daniels. He played way above his level consistently against the Spurs. Why is it so hard to believe one of the Spurs could do the same?
(And yes I know the Sonics did lose. But as many have pointed out, they played the Spurs to a hard 6th game. And the Spurs have more options than the Sonics did... I'm just saying. Anything is possible.)
How do you think the above formentioned players will perform on the defensive end? Lets discuss the defensive schemes that the spurs are going to use vs. the suns. Are Nazr, Horry and Rasho going to be good on the defensive end? Yes we know they can contribute on the offensive end.
But lets be honest here, the suns are going to attack the basket, they will be driving into the lane drawing contact, dishing...how are those players going to react to this? Will they be solid on the defensive end?
Look i have the spurs winning in 7 because of experience and i feel Tim's injury is going to be an issue, but i honestly feel that the spurs are a better team than the suns. They have a deeper bench, but the suns are more than capable of exposing the spurs weaknesses. If Tim Duncan isnt atleast at 75% the spurs are gona be in a whole lot of trouble
I'm not arguing with you about that. I agree 100% (except for Spurs in 7. They'll either lose or win before that).
I guess my main problem with the article is the whole setup, as I've discussed. And that's a major problem.
It's one thing to discuss weaknesses on your team, and how injuries expose them. But to claim that the problem with the Spurs comes down to a "building" error, well, let's just say that's a very tough position to defend.
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