Has Richard Jefferson Re-found His Game?
By Eno Sarris - HoopData
Last year was a tough year for Richard Jefferson. In his first year with the Spurs, he put up career lows in points, assists, steals, field goal and free throw attempts. He turned thirty over the off-season and could easily have begun the long, slow slog out of basketball – except that Gregg Popovich was his coach.
Baseball and basketball both have their proven pre-season stories. In baseball, the pitcher has learned a new pitch and the position player is in the best shape of his life - or so those stories go. In basketball, they’ve worked on their jump shot or upped their defense. It’s hard to take much from them.
Except perhaps in this case. Gregg Popovich gave his small forward a choice: enjoy your summer, continue to put money in the bank, and I’ll probably trade you as soon as I can. Or: work with our trainers, our coaching staff, and me personally to fulfill your potential and be the best you can be. Jefferson took the hard way, worked all summer, and spawned plenty of pre-season stories about his cut physique.
It’s a terrible sample, this early-season “n” of two, but maybe we can see something in the numbers that bode well for Jefferson to continue this resurgence. We know we can ignore some numbers based on the small sample, though. For example, his field goal percentage (64.7%) and PER (24.18) won’t continue. And we can retain our skepticism about the rest of the numbers, too. But there are good signs.
For example, his assist rate is at a five-year high at this point (16.34, 13.75 previous five-year high), which could come from learning the Spurs offense better. His percentage of long twos (the least efficient shot in basketball) is down to a career low (11.7%), which hopefully came straight from the coach’s mouth. Though his rebound rate is down slightly (7.0 after ranging from 6.2 to 8.3 the last four years), it’s about in line with his career numbers and it’s nothing a few more minutes a game (27 this year, 31 last year) couldn’t fix.
So far so good, but really the best news comes in one place and one place alone. Jefferson’s free-throw rate has jumped precipitously this year – it’s up to .88 from a five-year low last year (.37). He’s averaging 7.5 free throws a game so far, compared to 5.5 field goals. Last year, that was 3.5 free throws against 9.6 field goals. He’s getting to the line more often right now – that free throw rate has him at 16th in the league (9th in the league among players with 20+ MPG).
The sample size is small, and right now his free throw percentage is low (66.7%). But once he gets it back to his career level (77.7%), all those free throws will be an asset to his team. And once he’s shown he can be an asset to his team, he’ll get more minutes and more time with the ball – all things that will help his fantasy value. Jefferson’s not elite in any category, but as a final player on the bench, he does have fantasy value. And we know Popovich cares about his game, which looks like it's a good thing.
By Eno Sarris
Last year was a tough year for Richard Jefferson. In his first year with the Spurs, he put up career lows in points, assists, steals, field goal and free throw attempts. He turned thirty over the off-season and could easily have begun the long, slow slog out of basketball – except that Gregg Popovich was his coach.
Baseball and basketball both have their proven pre-season stories. In baseball, the pitcher has learned a new pitch and the position player is in the best shape of his life - or so those stories go. In basketball, they’ve worked on their jump shot or upped their defense. It’s hard to take much from them.
Except perhaps in this case. Gregg Popovich gave his small forward a choice: enjoy your summer, continue to put money in the bank, and I’ll probably trade you as soon as I can. Or: work with our trainers, our coaching staff, and me personally to fulfill your potential and be the best you can be. Jefferson took the hard way, worked all summer, and spawned plenty of pre-season stories about his cut physique.
It’s a terrible sample, this early-season “n” of two, but maybe we can see something in the numbers that bode well for Jefferson to continue this resurgence. We know we can ignore some numbers based on the small sample, though. For example, his field goal percentage (64.7%) and PER (24.18) won’t continue. And we can retain our skepticism about the rest of the numbers, too. But there are good signs.
For example, his assist rate is at a five-year high at this point (16.34, 13.75 previous five-year high), which could come from learning the Spurs offense better. His percentage of long twos (the least efficient shot in basketball) is down to a career low (11.7%), which hopefully came straight from the coach’s mouth. Though his rebound rate is down slightly (7.0 after ranging from 6.2 to 8.3 the last four years), it’s about in line with his career numbers and it’s nothing a few more minutes a game (27 this year, 31 last year) couldn’t fix.
So far so good, but really the best news comes in one place and one place alone. Jefferson’s free-throw rate has jumped precipitously this year – it’s up to .88 from a five-year low last year (.37). He’s averaging 7.5 free throws a game so far, compared to 5.5 field goals. Last year, that was 3.5 free throws against 9.6 field goals. He’s getting to the line more often right now – that free throw rate has him at 16th in the league (9th in the league among players with 20+ MPG).
The sample size is small, and right now his free throw percentage is low (66.7%). But once he gets it back to his career level (77.7%), all those free throws will be an asset to his team. And once he’s shown he can be an asset to his team, he’ll get more minutes and more time with the ball – all things that will help his fantasy value. Jefferson’s not elite in any category, but as a final player on the bench, he does have fantasy value. And we know Popovich cares about his game, which looks like it's a good thing.
Besides rebounding, RJ's ability to get to the line is what interested me the most when the trade was originally made.
Given, I bought in too much with regards to his great 3PT shooting year the year before last, but I was very excited to have a player that could get to the line.
It would be great if he kept that up.
Last edited by DPG21920; 11-01-2010 at 04:44 PM.
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A lot to prove still.. but I like what I see so far
Why's it gotta be white?
Started anew because I helped to derail the last, so I digress.
You're 100% right, Tell 'Em, presented by Blackjack, in association with THC, the free throws are where it's at. He may not help all that much on the wing defensively but him getting to the line at least gets the Spurs to the penalty, potentially puts the opponent(s) in foul trouble and it helps to dictate pace and set up your halfcourt D.
Hopefully that trend continues.
I wanted to see if I would get accused of calling "scoreboard" on a blank post.
I thought you let things go, broseph...
It's just a little joke . . .
Checking in with the new Richard Jefferson
Rob Mahoney
Though Tiago Splitter was San Antonio’s big off-season addition, it’s an improved Richard Jefferson that could really give the ’10-’11 Spurs some teeth. San Antonio was a fine team last season, but with Splitter bolstering the Spurs’ depth and Jefferson revamping his approach, Duncan and company could conceivably improve enough to sniff the West’s top tier.
That master plan very much depends on Jefferson’s improvement, though. San Antonio could really use a more efficient and productive RJ this year, as opposed to the inferior ill-fitting model we saw with the Spurs last season. Jefferson put in a ton of work this summer with Gregg Popovich and his staff trying to better understand the offense and work on the fundamentals of his game, and so far, it’s paying off. Eno Sarris of HoopData expounds on which statistical areas of improvement have been the most significant thus far for Jefferson:
For example, his assist rate is at a five-year high at this point (16.34, 13.75 previous five-year high), which could come from learning the Spurs offense better. His percentage of long twos (the least efficient shot in basketball) is down to a career low (11.7%), which hopefully came straight from the coach’s mouth. Though his rebound rate is down slightly (7.0 after ranging from 6.2 to 8.3 the last four years), it’s about in line with his career numbers and it’s nothing a few more minutes a game (27 this year, 31 last year) couldn’t fix.
So far so good, but really the best news comes in one place and one place alone. Jefferson’s free-throw rate has jumped precipitously this year – it’s up to .88 from a five-year low last year (.37). He’s averaging 7.5 free throws a game so far, compared to 5.5 field goals. Last year, that was 3.5 free throws against 9.6 field goals. He’s getting to the line more often right now – that free throw rate has him at 16th in the league (9th in the league among players with 20+ MPG).
We know: sample size, sample size, sample size. But Jefferson’s style of play is what’s leading to his increase in free throw rate, not merely the frequency of beneficial calls. Numbers can tell truths even two games into the season, and while an entire statistical profile will mislead at this stage, there’s sill plenty to be learned.
Still to early to be sure, RJ had a couple of good games last season. Maybe after 10 games or so I will be a true believer but right now I'm loving what I see from RJ's game.
I think Jefferson will be better, it's just a question of how much better.
Again, he's not going to be the 20ppg scorer he was in the past, but I do think he will score more, rebound better, be more effective in transition, better on defense, and he will cut down some of the stupid mistakes that were made last year. Just the fact that he's being aggressive and getting to the line is awesome.
Looks good tonight and having Anderson beyond him is not bad.
Should we expect a bounce-back year from Richard Jefferson?
by Scott Sereday
48 Minutes of
The Spurs acquired Richard Jefferson before the 2009-10 season in hopes of supplementing Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker and absorbing some of the scoring load. They paid him like an All-Star to do so.
The previous season RJ had averaged nearly 20 points per game, making 116 3-point shots and getting to the line over 500 times. There were several reasons to suspect that Jefferson would be one of the most potent 4th options in the NBA. However, as Spurs fans well know, most of these expectations have not been met. Jefferson averaged just over 12 points and converted only 59 3-pointers while attempting 287 free throws.
In the past few months the Spurs renewed focus on Richard Jefferson reaching his potential. Many are hopeful that he will be more comfortable with his role this year and there is noticeable optimism that he will improve on last year’s performance, perhaps significantly. But does a player typically improve the second year after a player changes teams? Should the Spurs have expected a substantial drop in RJ’s scoring output last year?
Keep reading →
he's already had more good games this year than he did in all of last november.
Don't discount the preseason... he was playing well then...
Which makes for a longer streak...
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