Reply With Quote
Here's a rope, you can hang yourself if you wish to.
I'm obviously a huge Spurs homer, and this season has been exciting to be a part of so far. So, to write a negative post about the Spurs' outlook, considering I wrote a hugely popular post about how Spurs were still contenders in the preseason, hurts me. However, while everyone is seeing positives in this early season, I am seeing alot of red flags. Here is what I'm seeing that will prevent us from winning number five this season, in no particular order
1. Return of small ball
At this point, it's not really a concern. However, it's easy to forget how bad small ball worked out for us last year because so far this year it has not hurt us... in fact it has won us some games (New Orleans comes to mind). However, I'm still not sold. We do not have the defensive personnel that would make small ball a long-term viable option for this team. RJ still sucks at playing the 4, this is not gonna change, and it's not his fault.
2. RJ is really being overrated by Spurs fans right now.
There were a few things I really wanted to see from RJ this season to improve on. One of those things, 3-pt attempts and %, he has excelled in so far, and I'm very optimistic it can continue. While he will not finish this season shooting 50% from the field and 44% from 3. On this team, he should stay close to that 50% overall, but that 44% from 3 is going to drop by the end of the season. His best season, as widely known, was his lone season in Milwaukee, when he shot 39.7% from 3. To think he will have his best shooting season from 3 in his 10th season, and be almost 5% better than his best previous season, is a little over optimistic. There are signs it could stay above 40% though. His shot mechanics are obviously improved, and a large majority of his threes this year are coming from the corner, where I think he shot 45% from in 08-09. Also, he's averaging 1.6 more 3PA this season compared to last, and is also on pace to set a career high in this category.
Rebounding the ball was another thing I thought was very important for him, and so far his rebounding has been sub par, even compared to last season. Ideally, RJ with this group should be in the 5-6 RPG range, and he's on pace right now to average a career low in rebounds, which is baffling to me considering his MPG is higher than last years and TD/Blair, our two best rebounders, are getting a lot less combined minutes than last year.
Defensive consistency was another big thing, and I'm not gonna lie to you, I do not have enough knowledge to comment on it. Hopefully someone who has paid attention to this part of his game can comment.
Aggression. Again, a little disappointed with this. His FTA are only up 1.5 from last season, to 4.8. This should be in the 6-ish range, and the fact it's still below 5 is disconcerting to me. He averaged 6.3 his last season before coming to the Spurs, in just over 3 more MPG. He is capable and I'm tired of the excuses.
3. Regression from too many members of the team
Can someone wake up Dejuan/George/Tim please? All 3 have taken steps back this season, and I'm particularly concerned about DB and Tim. Dejuan's move back to the bench couldn't come fast enough. He's playing, compared to last season, with a complete lack of confidence and consistency. McDyess should be starting games for this team. George has come around as of late, but overall has performed far below expectations.
Timmy, wow. At this time last year, he was an MVP candidate, carrying the Spurs through injuries to Manu and Tony. He's had only two 20-10 games so far, compared to 6 in the same span last year. Everyone knows about the single digit points personal record. He has looked slow and worn down, and it really stands out on offense. The days of Duncan carrying this team are over. His November scoring average is just under 5 PPG worse than his previous worst November scoring average (Can't find stats for first/second season). It's a huge drop, and it's not an aberration. The rebounding will not see a big drop off now or in subsequent seasons, and he'll be a good/great defensive anchor for years to come if he doesn't have to play pick and roll defense often, but it's looking less and less likely that Duncan will ever average 17+ PPG in a season ever again. Sadly, it seems that father time is taking it's toll on our franchise player.
4. Splitter, so far, isn't better than Rasho/Fab/Nazr.
Defensively and offensively, Splitter has shown flashes. However, that has been it... flashes. Consistency is such a big thing in basketball, particularly when you're goal is to win a championship. Tiago seems to have good fundamentals, particularly on the defensive end where I've been impressed with his footwork. His scoring has not been good though, not that it needs to be great, but I was expecting more. Honestly, I believe Tiago could make or break this Spurs team's le chances. He has the potential to be a GREAT pick and roll defender, which has been the Spurs kryptonite in recent seasons with the decline of Duncan's lateral speed. Honestly, it is the only thing that excites me about him. He's not really a rookie, and should be showing more. Lack of conditioning is a concern, considering it's about to be December.
5. Manu cannot keep this up.
Right now, Manu is the MVP of the league IMO. I'm not saying this because I'm a big Spurs fan... I think it is a shared sentiment around the league that he is in the conversation with CP3/Dirk right now. Do any Spurs fans think that he will do this for an entire season though? I don't buy the 'he will get tired' theory. Superstars should be capable of playing a full season without tiring, playing 33 MPG. Manu has never shown he is capable of doing this though. He has superstar stretches where he looks like the best SG in the league (like right now), then he somehow regresses to the point where he isn't even in the conversation anymore. I'm not sure what the explanation is... I wish I knew.
I will say though, overall, we are better this season than last season, and we are obviously really good when Manu starts. Also, the league looks to be much weaker than before, and the Lakers look as beatable as ever. This makes our le chances better than ever and there are alot of positives that I did not outline because every Spurs fan already knows them, but again there are still red flags.
Here's a rope, you can hang yourself if you wish to.
Im with you on this one sinok....
(14-2)- And our improvement ceiling is still high. Spurs suck so bad, so stop watching everybody.
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Seriously, what is it with fans on here who can't handle winning. Folks, this is no longer a mirage. It is happening, the Spurs are 14-2, and are playing the best ball in the Association. Can they keep it up? Probably not as efficient as it's been the first five weeks of the season, but I think they are on their way to a date with the Lakers in the WCF. Everyone, just please calm down, put your laptop down, and enjoy the ride. Just enjoy it, no matter where it takes us!
it's getting easier to weed-out the bandwagon fans
+1
I'm enjoying the ride. If this was a roller coaster I'd have my hands up and everything.
[chuck]just turrrrrrbbllllllleeeeeee[/chuck]
yeah me either, only one lose in the whole month. yeah, were bad.
The only thing that worries me is health. Can the big 3 stay healthy the full season and through the playoffs? If the answer is yes, I like the Spurs chances of winning a championship this year.
It was a loss to the Mavs which makes people self-conscious. None the less, the Mavs are a great team and you're going to lose to good teams sometimes. But with such consistent play by our guys, I think we'll be ok.
I 3rd this.Here's a rope, you can hang yourself if you wish to.
No doubt small ball won the hornets game, and Popped will take that to mean it will work against everyone, so I agree we can look forward to seeing more of it, and at some point it is going to fail miserably. On this I agree with you.
I'm not sure what Udoka's role is going to be yet (if any) but if RJ has to play more and more PF (to accomodate Pop's fetish with small balls) his game will regress eventually.
Blair has regressed, obviously. Should have traded him last year when he was a hot commodity and his value was high. He might still prove valuable off the bench. And Duncan needs more help than what Blair can provide in the starting lineup.
Splitter is better than those other guys you mentioned, IMO. He's just not getting consistent minutes however. I call it the Roger Mason syndrome. Pop likes to toy with lineups and minutes like a woman changes shoes and makeup. Players would much prefer to have defined role & regular minutes for the most part so they know what to expect each game. Under Pop, they just never know what to expect.
And I think Manu is fine playing 30 minutes. I think being relieved of the burden of carrying the 2nd unit singlehandedly has taken a weight off his shoulders and he can take it easier now. Funny as it seems, the 25 minutes of all out 110% overdrive 6th man basketball was putting a far greater burden on him than playing with the starters 30 minutes. I applaud this change, and so far its worked out quite nicely for Manu.
I am cautiously optimistic about the spurs this season.
It's the beginning of December so I'm not buying or selling any playoff/finals predictions. I will say that it's extremely obvious that this team is better than last year's team.
The FO worked to get Tiago here, drafted a player that can contribute right away, added perimeter scoring and signed the best available option at SF. At this point i feel like Pop and RC are fielding the best roster possible. They are doing the best with the tools they have at their disposal.
A lot of things have to go right for a team to see the LOB. And the majority of those things don't develop in November. So it really doesn't matter if you are, or aren't sold on the Spurs right now.
This was a waste of time to write muchless a waste of time to read. Spurs are off to best record in history and have best overall record in NBA and people still complain. Twenty percent of the regular season is almost completed. I'd say that gives us enough time to give us an idea of the strong teams and those that are not. Lets not discount a 14-2 record.
Then why did you quote the whole goddamn thing again? I am this close to calling you a noob.
1. there is nothing wrong with small ball, especially when you have the necessary talent to go very big without missing a beat. That is what the Spurs have. Yes we are playing a lot of small ball, but think about it. We can play a lineup of Splitter, Duncan, McDyess, Jefferson, and Manu and not miss a beat. That's a pretty big lineup. Small ball is winning for us right now without putting any real strain on Duncan, Manu or McDyess, that is the key to our playoff success.
2. RJ is overrated. He might be, but he is doing very well right now. Do we have a better option? Is there a guy out there we can trade for that would be better? Remember if we make a trade the guy still would need a learning curve to learn our system. Jefferson is hitting his open looks and is giving us what we need within the system we are running.
3. Blair, George, and Duncan regressed? I get that your concerned about Blair, and maybe even George. Duncan? If you call less minutes regressed then he has regressed. Come on, Tim is still Tim. We are winning right now and protecting Tim's health what in the world is wrong with this?
As for Blair and George, we know they can play, give them a chance to find their rhythm.
4 You are so far off on your analysis of Splitter it's comical, Splitter is already giving us more than anything Rasho ever gave us. And that is just on the defensive side of the ball. I can't imagine how good he is going to be when he actually gets his legs under him and is accustomed to a NBA regular season. If you can't see what Splitter is doing on the court your not really watching the game.
5. You might be right about Manu, my biggest concern is we need to better protect our human pin ball from taking too many hits.
While I appreciate any attempt to RTB...I'm still utterly resolved to go with the typical response:
That's just like, uh...your opinion, man.
the giant elephant no one is talking about is injury and fatigue. everyone knows that they are bound to happen in an 82 game season. one of the big 3 will be going down sooner or later, as they have done for the past many many years.
Duncan is fine. He looks to be coming out of his shooting slump, only it's still early in the season, so his percentage doesn't look great because it's not like he was at 52-54% shooting through two months. As for the per game averages, I don't know how much more you want out of a guy playing under 30 mpg and shooting less than 12 times a game.
I realize one is an all-time great and the other is injury prone and hasn't accomplished all that much, but Bynum was putting up similar numbers last season and people were building him up (rightly so, when he's right he's one of the five best centers in the entire league), yet when Duncan does it, people are concerned and some act like he can't play anymore.
People need to realize, the entire team isn't going to be averaging what they're capable of at once. With certain guys shooting/scoring more, that means others will be shooting/scoring less. If they were all averaging what they're capable of at once, this team would be unbeaten because they'd be averaging at least 120 ppg.
As for Ginobili wearing down, I tend to think he will as well, but people need to stop stating it as fact. As if he's played this much before and we saw his play fall off dramatically as the season wore on as a direct result of playing too many minutes. He's never done this before, as fans we've just been conditioned, with his style of play, to think he can't handle this type of workload. But we don't know for certain he can't. He very well might be able to. Even if he isn't, don't be expecting a precipitous drop in his minutes any time soon. They'll probably get his average down to about 32 as the season goes on, but that's only a minute less than he's playing now.
Most of this, is nitpicking at its weakest.
We barelly played small ball this year, after one game of its success, all of a sudden its a longterm solution, give me a break.
RJ ..ok after a hot start hes dissapeared a couple of games, but hes still an important contributor and was super clutch in several games this year. Hes much more consistent in his second season. Just look at last game, that was his best defensive effort while guarding west at pf, thats impressive. Lets not forget hes still the 3rd or 4th option on this team. I wouldnt worry about him.
Tim has taken a back seat, ala Robinson. Hes still good defensivelly and is just out of rythm on offence, still getting used to not getting as many touches anymore, hes regressed somewhat due to age, but not as much as some think. Hill was starting last year, this year he needed to get used to playing with the second unit, and is averaging 14pts in last 4 games, safe to say hes out of his slump. I have to agree with your blair assessment, he regeressed, the good thing is, pop is pulling him out early and barelly giving him any minutes.
Splitter is improving, and will be fine, but it doesnt help when pop gives him dnps and plays the likes of bonner and blair instead, though latelly hes been getting some time on the court.
Manu well be ok, this is basically last chance at a le, and everyone playign like it, with the appropriate desparation, you gotta risk if you want to win it all.
Gotta love the Chaz.
I don't think we're that good either because there is a good chance that we might lose a game.
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