Most: Trail Blazers. Roy is playing on one leg, they're extremely limited offensively and they're not real athletic. The Spurs could beat them in five (four if they were really focused and locked in), blow them out in two and cruise to the next round, with little wear and tear.
Teams like the Suns, Rockets and Grizzlies are explosive enough offensively to potentially push it to six games and put more wear and tear on the Spurs.
Least: Mavs. It has nothing to do with the actual match-up, just seen it too many times in recent years. Maybe down the line in the playoffs, fine, but not in the first round. I'm confident the Spurs would win, but there's always the chance a team loses.

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