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I didn't read the whole thing but of course they are not. the season isn't even half way through. anything can happen.
1) Lakers have turned it up a notch and are capable even with a > SOS to win 75-80% of games left and Boston getting healthier. LAL still is hungry for HCA: http://lakers.ocregister.com/2011/01...-record/47424/
Boston also feels confident going fwd re their team:
http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/p...126/daily-dime
Boston also plays in the East which has only won about 40% of their games vs. the West this year so will feast on some East bottom feeders (although paradoxically they have lost to some weak teams recently)
2) There may be as expected a regression to the mean effect on the Spurs who may play very good and still reach a fine number of wins but it may or may not be enough to hold off the LAL and/or Celtics.
3) Spurs have 3 games vs. the Lakers (2 on road) including one of there 5 or so more back to backs in the 2nd to last game of the season.
4) Spurs in their favor historicallly turn it up during the rodeo trip and the 2nd half of the season their SOS is less than that of the Lakers. Of course relative health and some good fortune will also be needed besides the Spurs staying hungry for HCA.
Some nice sites to follow the races:
Written a few weeks ago and is updated now and shows Spurs and LAL records and remaining games vs. the Bulls (recognizing the LAL cannot get 70 wins and it is very improbable Spurs will get even with a couple of games of that total)
http://espn.go.com/nba/features/best
Updates daily using a model to predict the final record based on SOS, point differential, road games etc.
http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
Shows SOS and both Boston and LAL have benefited by a significantly weaker schedule so far but LAL has a lot of road games but also plays only 15 BBS all year - 3 less than the Spurs.
http://espn.go.com/nba/dailydime/_/p...126/daily-dime
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/spo...n-2010-11.html
Shows back to backs for top East teams - I counted and Spurs play 18 and LAL 15 for comparison this year but Spurs have if I counted right 10 left vs. 5 of the LAL.
HCA does matter historically in the playoffs and a lot:
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/feature...court20090417/
It will be an interesting 2nd half and here is to hoping all the top teams have good health going forward. I predict the Spurs, barring major injuries to Parker/Manu or Duncan will have the HCA over the Lakers and Celtics but it will be a narrow margin of 2-3 games over each with the Spurs ending up with 63 +/- 1 game and nothing is a lock yet.
Last edited by Rummpd; 01-26-2011 at 11:00 AM.
I didn't read the whole thing but of course they are not. the season isn't even half way through. anything can happen.
Who thought the spurs were a lock for HCA?
Of course they're not a lock. They've only played 45 of 82 games.
Caution Spurs NOT a lock for NBA Champs.
Spurs are on the right track though, and at this point if they take care of business and stay healthy they have a great shot at HCA throughout.
Justin Timberlake is doing that girl in your sig. That guy's had some unbelievable tail in his short life. Damn.
Blasphemy! Off with his head!
L.A. has the more difficult schedule going forward, so they'll have to take the regular seriously, at least more seriously than the Laker posters who seem to think the regular season is meaningless.
http://www.nba.com/2009/news/feature...court20090417/
It is interesting and somewhat unexplained to me why? that in a multi year period (does not include last year but Boston knocked off the Cavs w/o HCA and Lakers beat the Suns with HCA) HCA meant a lot in all rounds except for the conference finals and that HCA has really meant a lot in the finals with the 2-3-2 format when one might expect the road team might occassionally benefit by having three road games in a row at home. Also game 7 at home has NOT been as big of a help as having other games earlier in the series at home and the author does a good job of trying to explain that ( John Schuhmann, NBA.com whom I think is one of the better analytical writers going these days personally).
No . It's the NBA.
I think the far number of back to backs Spurs have evens that out and Spurs also have a few more road games left than the Lakers, but time will tell. I hope the SAS play well again on the rodeo trip, because the LAL seem to be surging at the moment; and are too talented not to play really well for some stretch this year.
(Next week will be very interesting as Spurs and Boston both visit the Lakers so we may know much more by the end of the week how the races for HC will probably sort out - I would love for the Spurs to maintain their current loss differential margins over both going forward after the Feb 3 game.)
How many more games untill The SPURS are a lock?
don't worry, Spurs won't lose HCA
Lakers would need to go 35-5 and the Spurs to lose 11 more games
To catch them.
And the Lakers would need to sweep all 3 remaining spur games if they finished tied ...
Chances of all 3 happening are small ...and even if the first two happen not sure how a tie-breaker would even be decided if they split the series ...
Spurs will maintain HCA barring collapse...
Last edited by Killakobe81; 01-26-2011 at 11:41 AM.
I think i just got dumber reading this !
Well the season is a little over half way, but yea, they are not a lock.
Nice post Rummpd, very interesting stuff.
Well, their magic number to clinch overall HCA is 31.
I figure the only way the Spurs, with 2nd place Lakers at -6L, don't have WC HCA lock is Spurs injuries.
otoh, BOS is only 3L back.
Important fact to note is that the Lakers had the easiest schedule in the NBA in the first half. The Spurs had the 8th hardest, I think.
Brilliant!
You surely got me on that one as I would not know how to figure that out yet!
Lets see 31 more wins would take Spurs to 69 wins which is equal to what the Lakers winning (implaussibly of course) can at win but so it holds up there barring tie breakers.
Now vs. Boston I believe it would be 34 as their top "impossible" number is 72 with their ten losses.
So the right number is around 31-34 combinations of wins/losses going forward depending on the team! Surely if Spurs get to 69 wins (31-7 going forward, highly implausible but not impossible based on their past 2nd half surges (went 37-5 to enter their first championiship year after a 6-8 start in the strike shortened year) we can all call it a lock for HCA and it would tie the 2nd best regular seasons ever and all teams 69 and over won NBA les by the way: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...win_percentage
However, going down the table: Only 1 of 2 68 win teams won the championship (Boston lost in an ECF) and 2/3 67 win teams won (Notable failure: the renowned Mavs of 06-07 who started 0-4 then won an incredible 67/78 games until flamming out in the first round unbelievably when their coach infamously changed the starting lineup among other things vs. the underdog Warriors when Baron Davis played also lights out the entire series)
Spurs do get to 67 or more (29 wins or more going forward) you have to like their chances although again: "nothing is a lock" - just ask the Mavs!
Now off to work as I stayed half day with my son on a snow day! God I miss San Antonio!
Last edited by Rummpd; 01-26-2011 at 12:20 PM.
Now that makes sense Boston does have a chance but they need some help (obviously) and can lay few turds but they have a much better chance than we do ..plus they play in the East ...
when you jump out in front like the spurs have especially ahead of vet team like the Celts or lakers, their coach has to decide is catching that team even worth it? You would most likely have to push your stars to do it ...just to get that extra game at home?
how many series even went 7 last year? Of course for the Lakers the most important one was at home ... but most series do not go seven. Home or away, winning game 1 (especially for the Lakers under Phil) has been the key to playoff success ...if we win a game one even without HCA against any team even the Celts ....I fell pretty confident.
If you cant defend your homecourt in the playoffs in a game one in a best of seven, you DESERVE to lose ...
Good information, link?
Hollinger's team rankings give the SOS so far so you can extract it from that although SOS is somewhat arbitrary IMO as teams get hot and cold/injuires and Spurs have benefited a handful of games from teams having stars out so far, but to be fair no one talks when Spurs are missing their: top draft choice, and 2 of their top reserves yet as has been the recent case when both Bonner and Hill out
see link in my original post for that site of Hollinger's.
IIRC the Lakers have the easiest overall schedule in the NBA based on ESPN's Strength of Schedule and the Lakers also have the fewest amount of back to backs.
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