Interesting analyses using past data to predicting playoffs

[Rummpd]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8811

Seems head to head and games vs. top teams do not predict success as much as point differential and record overall - either way you look at it SAS sitting pretty damm strong right now.

If you look at the table (need to go to cite to see it well) Spurs in top tier almost any category that predicts success


Despite their high overall marks, apparently neither the Lakers nor the Heat can beat the league's other so-called "elite" teams. Miami is just 6-9 this season against teams in the top 10 in W-L%, and 0-6 against top-5 teams. The Lakers are barely better, going 6-7 vs. top-10 squads and 2-6 against the top 5. Here's a summary of the other teams in the top 10 by either W-L% or point differential:

Team Ovr W% Ovr PD W% v Top10 W% v Top5 PD v Top10 PD v Top5
San Antonio Spurs 0.833 7.26 0.688 0.600 4.72 5.75
Boston Celtics 0.736 6.60 0.632 0.667 2.72 3.44
Miami Heat 0.722 7.83 0.400 0.000 -0.64 -0.60
Dallas Mavericks 0.704 3.04 0.632 0.556 0.45 0.90
Chicago Bulls 0.692 5.79 0.571 0.571 -1.06 -2.14
Los Angeles Lakers 0.691 6.53 0.462 0.250 -1.53 -5.14
Oklahoma City Thunder 0.642 1.74 0.471 0.300 -2.44 -6.75
Orlando Magic 0.625 5.46 0.368 0.417 -0.18 1.82
Atlanta Hawks 0.623 1.32 0.231 0.143 -9.23 -11.80
New Orleans Hornets 0.589 2.29 0.476 0.500 -2.10 -4.27
Denver Nuggets 0.564 2.73 0.412 0.400 -0.18 -1.44
Memphis Grizzlies 0.536 1.45 0.421 0.429 -1.68 -3.63
Philadelphia 76ers 0.481 1.33 0.250 0.222 -4.21 -9.60

The conventional wisdom tells us that this is going to be a problem for Miami and L.A. come playoff time. But is that actually true? Do teams with better records vs. the NBA's top teams win postseason series more often?

Here's the breakdown since the merger (1977-2010):

The team with the better regular-season WPct vs. top-5 teams won the series 65.9% of the time.
The team with the better regular-season WPct vs. top-10 teams won the series 71.8% of the time.
The team with the better WPct vs. teams outside the top 10 won the series 73.2% of the time. Spurs doing well in this in particular I believe.
The team with the better regular-season pt diff vs. top-5 teams won the series 69.1% of the time. Spurs hold big edge here over Lakers so far.The team with the better regular-season pt diff vs. top-10 teams won the series 73.0% of the time.
The team with the better pt diff vs. teams outside the top 10 won the series 71.7% of the time.


but here the author's bottom line (Neil Paine)


"In other words, knowing how a team performed vs. elite teams actually tells you less about who wins a playoff series than a team's record against all teams, even non-elite teams. Team records vs. the cream of the crop certainly sound meaningful, but when it comes to predicting success or failure in the playoffs, you'd be better off knowing how they did against the entire league."

Also the regular season does matter and having HCA is huge as this updated table by Neil shows:

UPDATE: Here's the same study, but with 1st-round games removed and the results split up by which team had the home-court advantage in the series:

Win%
Superior in... Home Road
w%-v-top5 76.0% 27.3%
w%-v-top10 75.5% 30.6%
w%-v-other 76.5% 35.3%
pd-v-top5 76.9% 34.8%
pd-v-top10 76.9% 38.5%
pd-v-other 77.1% 38.8%


One of the analysts (Nick) summarized the findings thusly:

In a 7 game series in the NBA playoffs...the team that had the best record in the regular season is the overwhelming favorite (unless the 2 records are very close

[TampaDude]

The only stat you need to know is this:

Every other team that had a start like this Spurs team won the championship.

The is ours. Book it.

[spurs10]

The only stat you need to know is this:

Every other team that had a start like this Spurs team won the championship.

The is ours. Book it.