I came across this site at Basketball-Reference.com that rates the probability of active players making the HOF.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...ob_active.html
Tim #3
Tony #17 (ahead of Steve Nash)
Manu #26
I don't like the guys model at all he explicitly states that the voters tend to ignore aba accomplishments which is kind of true but they definitely don't ignore international and college accomplishments which makes Manu from 26 to about 10 and from a just 13% chance to around a 60% chance. Now I'm not saying the make-up of the voters won't change in the 8 to 10 years before manu retires and becomes eligible but having no college and international consideration on there makes it a flawed site.
Well, it's not flawed, actually - the guy readily admits his prediction algorithm is perfect, he's just saying that by taking into account only a few measurable inputs he managed to predict who was in or not to a high degree (~95%).
The limitations are indeed that it focuses on a player's NBA career, so it will work better for players who had a "standard" career. Guys like Ginobili are statistical abberations in terms of development. So Manu will be one of the oddities (because I'm pretty sure that his overall achivements which include Europe and Argantina will get him in).
One huge fail in the model in my opinion is that it doesn't take into account MVP trophies. All the former NBa MVPs are in the HoF, and I expect this trend to continue for a long time. It's certainly applicable to all the MVPs who aren't yet eligible.
Tony is not ahead of Nash..
Stupid list..
I was debating this a week or so ago about Manu being in the HOF and i stand by what i say about that's gonna be tough. Reggie Miller just got passed over on the first ballot. He'll get in but Reggie Miller is not first ballot to these clowns..
WOW!!!
yea couldn't believe Reggie didn't make it in, at least Rob got in LoL @ HOF voters probably think basketball should still be played without dribbling.
So the list has Tony at 56% and Manu at 13% probability of HOF.
CRRRRRROOOOFFFFFLLLLLL
Manu is a 99% lock for the HOF. I'd say 90%+ first ballot.
James Anderson
DeJuan Blair
Matt Bonner
Tim Duncan
Manu Ginobili
George Hill
Othyus Jeffers
Richard Jefferson
Antonio McDyess
Gary Neal
Steve Novak
Tony Parker
Chris Quinn
Tiago Splitter
And OT:
How the is Splitter making 3 mil per year?
At first glance, this dude should check his model when he got this results. Kobe ahead of Timmy and Manu 13%?? A closer look at his formula reveals that he has no ideas what hes doing. Pretty lame list. He just needs some common sense.
I'm not sure why anyone is shocked. When I heard Reggie was on the ballot I knew he wasn't going to make it in and posted about it in the NBA forum and he doesn't deserve to make it in first ballot (or second, third, fourth, or fifth for that matter). Other than shoot the ball what else did he do? Was he a playmaker? No. Play defense? No. Rebound? No. I could see if he was some kind of elite scorer but he wasn't that either. He was basically a 20 point scorer that contributed nothing else.
Then we go to individual accolades. No first team All-NBA selections. No second team selections. A few third team selections. He was never an MVP candidate. He never established himself as the best of the best in his era. Why should he be HOF? Having a few memorable playoff series against the Knicks (in which the Pacers didn't win anyway) shouldn't be enough for first ballot.
As far as Tim Duncan, Ginobili and Parker go.....Duncan was a lock back in 2002. Ginobili will get in because of his overall resume and winning at every level (maybe not first ballot). Parker is the odd man out unless he adds a few more les. His international resume is hardly anything to write home about and he hasn't established himself as being among the elite PG consistently enough to be HOF worthy.
How is that gonna happen when Reggie missed the first ballot. Reggie has a olympic gold medal to boot and was a way better player than Manu has ever been.. Seriously..
Obviously Reggie is not Ewing, Malone, Pippen, Barkley, Robinson but he was the best shooter of his generstion and one of the most clutch players of his generation. He scored more than 25,000 career pts and had 6 seasons avg more than 20 pts a game. He was the all time 3 pt leader as well. How many 20 pt seasons has Manu had? I keep hearing about his overall resume and by that you must mean the Olympic Gold Medal well Reggie won that in 96. He was a better player than Manu by far. And i love Manu i am not trying to bash him, just trying to be fair here..
HOF never ceases to amaze me after I saw this dumbass inducted.
Didn't play college or pro ball. A few winning seasons as a collegiate coach. Sucked as an NBA coach for a short while, but he can say "BABY" so...that just about made him HOF material. As much as I'd like to see Tony and Manu inducted, I won't be holding my breath.
Manu led his team to gold, Reggie didn't. Manu has led multiple teams to multiple championships and has a lot of individual hardware to go with it.
And how is Reggie "way better" than Manu?
HOF never ceases to amaze me after I saw this dumbass inducted.
Didn't play college or pro ball. A few winning seasons as a collegiate coach. Sucked as an NBA coach for a short while, but he can say "BABY" so...that just about made him HOF material. As much as I'd like to see Tony and Manu inducted, I won't be holding my breath.
inducted as a member of the media for basketball.
College Basketball is VERY popular due in a small part to his commentating.
Manu has led teams to championships in the NBA? Really he has huh? I guess he didn't play with one of the 10 best players of all time in his prime.. I guess he would have rings anyway..
Read what I said.
One of the guy's criteria for his formula is "height."
I did and you are overblowing his NBA career and under-cutting Reggies.. Reggie and Manu both have gold medals. Reggie has way better stats and was the more dominant player..
He is more deserving than Manu by quite a bit..
No, you aren't. Where did I in that post overblow Manu's NBA career?
So who deserves HOF more
Reggie or Manu?
Manu, no doubt. But I don't see how that is "overblowing" Manu's NBA career.
Your mistake is that you're only looking at Manu's NBA resume. If you want to see why Mau is a mortal lock for the HOF, look at Drazen Petrovic's combined career, FIBA/Euro/NBA. Drazen was a first ballot hybrid NBA/Euro/FIBA induction.
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