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You're making me nurrrrrvous.
Even before Manu Ginobili's injury added even more uncertainty to the mix, this series was sure to be fascinating. First of all, there are a number of interesting subplots:
- This is the ultimate example of the haves versus the have nots. Since coming into existence during the 1995-1996 NBA season, the Grizzlies are 450-830 in the regular season and 0-12 in the playoffs. During the same time frame, the Spurs have a regular season record of 859-421 and more championships than the Grizzlies have playoff appearances.
- San Antonio's history of success is apparently meaningless to Memphis since they shamelessly tanked their last two games to get the Spurs in the first round. The Grizzlies coaching staff and players must love how they stack up and wholeheartedly believe they can beat the Spurs. Otherwise, why not go all out in an attempt to face a team like the Mavericks?
- The four regular season games between these two teams were extremely physical. In fact, both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili were injured against the Grizzlies in separate games. Now add the extra fire from both sides due to everyone involved knowing Memphis tanked to setup this series and the physicality is sure to fierce.
- Pop is usually one to shy away from saying anything controversial. But that wasn't the case back when the Grizzlies gave away Pau Gasol to the Lakers. Shortly after the trade, Pop let loose: "What they did in Memphis is beyond comprehension. There should be a trade committee that can scratch all trades that make no sense. I just wish I had been on a trade committee that oversees NBA trades. I'd like to elect myself to that committee. I would have voted no to the L.A. Trade." Three years later, here we are. Memphis has more than survived the Gasol gifting. Could the Grizzlies tank job to face the Spurs have anything to do with Pop's words? Possibly. Would the Grizzlies love to beat the Spurs and shove those words back down Pop's throat? Absolutely.
Besides the drama, real or perceived, San Antonio versus Memphis is also a clash of basketball philosophies.
- The Spurs have morphed into a perimeter oriented team. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are far and away the league's most interior based team. They averaged 51.2 points in the paint this season -- 5.7 points more than any other team in the NBA. In fact, the difference between the Grizzlies and the second place team was more than the difference between the second place team and the 22nd place team.
- Although we saw a bit more of it earlier this season, Pop usually frowns upon playing the passing lanes. The Grizzlies led the league in steals and it's without a doubt their biggest strength defensively.
- The Spurs were the best three-point shooting team in the NBA this season. They topped the league in three-point percentage and were fourth in makes. Conversely, the Grizzlies were last in the NBA in three-pointers made and fourth to last in three-point percentage.
- Pop values transition defense over offensive rebounds, while Memphis pounds the offensive boards.
Considering the questions surrounding Ginobili's injury, the unbalanced strength of teams in the Western Conference and the relatively poor finish to the regular season by San Antonio, the Spurs must be considered one of the most vulnerable No. 1 seeds in recent memory. Losing the series to the Grizzlies would be surprising, although I wouldn't say it'd be shocking. Here are the top ten keys to advancing past the first round:
10. Decaffeinate Tony Allen
After the Grizzlies lost Rudy Gay for the season with a shoulder injury, Tony Allen filled the void and has become the heart and soul of the team. Over the last few months, no NBA player has played defense with more energy and tenacity than Allen. Since the All-Star break, in my opinion he's been the best defensive player in the league.
Allen has also been a revelation on the offensive end. Since the break, he's averaging more than 13 points per game on 54.2% shooting from the field. In his last two games against the Spurs, he connected on an astounding 17-of-19 field goal attempts. While a number of those hoops were easy finishes on the break, he also mixed in a handful of jumpers and even a few postups where he out-muscled Spurs defenders on the low block.
How do you slow him down? On offense, the Spurs can't throw any lazy passes in his direction. In fact, adding more hand-offs to the offensive repertoire would be a good idea just to keep Allen from causing havoc. Defensively, the gameplan will be to get back and keep him out of the paint. While he shoots 65.7% at shots around the rim, he's a very poor outside shooting -- hitting just 26.8% of his shots outside of ten feet.
9. Matt Bonner
Yes, Matt Bonner is far from SpursTalk's favorite all-time player in team history. Yes, Matt Bonner has a history of choking in the playoffs. Yes, Matt Bonner defending Zach Randolph is about as safe as an emo at a Quattro convention.
But I sit before you to say that Matt Bonner has a chance to make life for the Grizzlies. When Memphis has Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol on the court, neither one is going to want to drift out of the paint to defend Bonner from beyond the three-point arc. It's no surprise that he was 8-for-17 on three-pointers against the Grizzlies this season. Theoretically, putting Bonner on the court should at worst create a lot of space and at best force the Grizzlies to alter their lineup.
That said, the key word is "theoretically". I'm fully prepared for another Matt Bonner postseason bust. But, man, it's nice to dream . . .
8. Fluster Zach Randolph
Zach Randolph has seemingly always been a tough player for the Spurs to defend. He's a physical rebounder with great hands, a soft touch around the rim and range on his jumper. Randolph has proven to be too nimble for the bigger bigs and too powerful for the smaller bigs. Perhaps the best option the Spurs have ever had to defend Randolph was Bruce Bowen, whose gameplan was to front him and then lead him into a help defender. Unfortunately, Bruce Bowen isn't walking through that door.
These Spurs will have to rely on murking the water. Randolph is a below average passer, so sending double-teams his way should be part of the strategy. However, he's smart enough to adjust so the Spurs need to remain a step ahead. Front him occasionally. Throw a smaller player at him. Let Duncan guard him sometimes. In crunch time, when it comes down to it, expect the job of slowing Randolph to fall to Antonio McDyess.
7. Tim Duncan's Revival
Tim Duncan played a career-low number of minutes this season. The coaching staff purposely lessened his offensive responsibilities in part to keep him fresh for the postseason. To put it honestly, Duncan went from superstar player to very good role player this season.
But with the arrival of the playoffs, good ol' Tim Duncan is expected by many to replace very good old Tim Duncan. I'm not sure expecting him to start producing 25 and 15 once the bright lights of the postseason arrived was the plan all along. Personally, I thought it would be a mistake to remake the offensive iden y of this team in the playoffs -- especially since the new offensive ways have worked so well virtually all season.
Then Ginobili's elbow bent the wrong way and changed everything.
Now if Ginobili is sidelined or can't carry his usual load, Duncan will be forced to turn back the clock. Hopefully he has it in him because unless Ginobili returns to form at some point in this series, the Spurs will need Duncan to produce large numbers in order to advance.
6. Toughness
This Grizzlies team is a ferocious bunch. They are big and physical in the paint. Their swingmen don't give an inch. Especially at home, they feed off of emotion and momentum. To top it off, their coaching staff preaches out-toughing the opponent.
If the Spurs play soft in any of the games, they will lose. The Grizzlies are basketball's version of three yards and a cloud of dust. Matching their physicality is atop the to-do list each outing.
5. Exploit the Three-Point Line
As mentioned above, the Spurs have a substantial advantage when it comes to three-pointers. By creating and knocking down threes, the Spurs can make things a lot easier and cause the Grizzlies to work a lot harder for their points. Over the course of the series, a healthy discrepancy from beyond the arc should tilt the series to San Antonio's favor.
On defense, perimeter players sagging into the paint is generally a good idea due to Memphis' lack of marksmanship -- though caution is needed. In the regular season, the Spurs overplayed this weakness and allowed the Grizzlies to shoot uncharacteristically well from three-point land (19-for-44, 43.2%).
4. Ride Tony Parker
Even with a healthy Ginobili, San Antonio's most dangerous weapon against the Grizzlies is Tony Parker. Memphis' main weakness on defense is guarding point guards -- especially point guards who can get in the paint. Parker, fortunately for the Spurs, is perfectly built to take advantage.
Expect a ton of pick-and-rolls where the Spurs try to get Parker penetrating against Gasol to exploit the Spaniard's lack of foot speed. And since Randolph isn't a shotblocker, Parker should either get good looks at the rim or good passing lanes to shooters against a collapsing defense. As long as the shooters are hitting and Parker is at the top of his game, this will undoubtedly be San Antonio's bread and butter this series.
3. Limit Turnovers
The lifeblood of the Grizzlies defense is forcing turnovers. And not just any type of turnover -- they want steals so they can get out on the break and get easy buckets. They play passing lanes, attack dribblers and swarm bigs on the block.
The good news for the Spurs is that the Grizzlies strategy can backfire. Their steal attempts oftentimes create open lanes, so if you can limit turnovers, you can get open shots. But that "if" is easier typed than done.
2. Defensive Rebounding
In the four games against the Spurs this season, the Grizzlies averaged 15.8 offensive rebounds per game. Amazingly, Randolph alone averaged 7.3 offensive boards. To win this series, the Spurs are going to have to slash those numbers. It won't be easy since the Grizzlies are both bigger and more athletic. Gang rebounding shall be mandatory.
1. Manu Ginobili's Health
It could come down to this. If Manu Ginobili is a non-factor this series, I think this series becomes a toss up.
Think of it this way: If the Spurs didn't have Ginobili this season, how many games would they have won? I'd say less than the 46 games the Grizzlies won.
Thankfully, home-court advantage and playoff experience are two important aspects in San Antonio's corner. But until we see Manu being Manu on the court again, this remains the most important key.
You're making me nurrrrrvous.
On Bonner
It all depends if he is gonna make those treys - otherwise spurs gonna be eaten by the Grizzlies on the boards. Ofensive and defensive glass.
Top one Key - Spurs vs. Grizzlies 2011 Playoff Preview
1. Play at your level
Spurs are the way better team. It is en easy series that Spurs should win in 4 or 5 games.
Last edited by Bruno; 04-16-2011 at 05:59 AM.
We can front Randolph with Blair and Dyess. So there you choose.
I see no possibilities for Splitter to play. Ohh maybe in a situation when the spurs will be in big deep losing the series. Other then that Pop will not go big IMO.
Spurs are careless with the ball. If they are gonna lose concentration Memphis will kill the spurs.
Let's throw in a "offer a laker fan human sacrifice" for good measures.
Losing Manu makes the series a toss up? The Spurs are the much better team, if they can't beat a Memphis team without Manu then they have no chance against anyone.
Where are you getting that from? The Spurs were a way better team in November and December, but since then their records are virtually identical.
Just in case the Aussies here weren't aware, Spurs vs Grizzlies Game 3 will be live on ESPN in Australia.
I hope One HD is going to pick up at least a few TNT games a week as well.
I'm getting that from the "it's damn obvious" section.
I also have some doubts about Spurs but while we can spend hours analyzing Grizzlies strength, there are still the elephant in the room: Memphis are Zach Randolph surrounded by a bunch of average players.
Being humble instead of being y and respect the opponents is always nice but you also had too look at the truth. Once again, it's Zach Randolph with role players. If Spurs can't easily beat that, it will be a shame.
Last edited by Bruno; 04-16-2011 at 09:48 AM. Reason: sp
This is all that Matters...Manu relies on quick quirky moves to the basket...He's limber and I think this is a major break for the Grizzles...but it's fitting since the Grizzles are without the Gay guy...(no pun) Manu will also have to play defense and this is where he will get creamed like Corn by Tony Allen....
Grizzles in 6
get the downstairs fatboy
your mama...
Hornets in 3
Pop is usually one to shy away from saying anything controversial. But that wasn't the case back when the Grizzlies gave away Pau Gasol to the Lakers. Shortly after the trade, Pop let loose: "What they did in Memphis is beyond comprehension. There should be a trade committee that can scratch all trades that make no sense. I just wish I had been on a trade committee that oversees NBA trades. I'd like to elect myself to that committee. I would have voted no to the L.A. Trade." Three years later, here we are. Memphis has more than survived the Gasol gifting. Could the Grizzlies tank job to face the Spurs have anything to do with Pop's words? Possibly. Would the Grizzlies love to beat the Spurs and shove those words back down Pop's throat? Absolutely.
This is also a great reason for the Spurs to eliminate BOTH the grizz... and the lakers...
just a little incentive to eliminate both teams involved in the collusion that took away what belongs to the spurs ...
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playof...e=Smackdown-11
Obviously the injuries and 6 game losing streak doesnt help... but that's an alarming stat.Smackdown Breakdown: Grizzlies-Spurs
"A few months ago, this matchup would have been a breeze for San Antonio," Paine says, "but how quickly things can change. Paradoxically enough, Memphis has played much better ever since losing Rudy Gay for the year, while San Antonio has sputtered down the stretch (partly by design -- resting stars -- and partly because of uncharacteristically bad defense). Now, with Manu Ginobili's health in question, not only do the Grizz have a good chance to win their first playoff game ever, but they could put some fear into San Antonio before it's all said and done."
"Since the All-Star break, the Spurs' efficiency differential is 2.8," says Berri. "And the Grizzlies' mark is 4.3 since the break (a mark achieved primarily without Rudy Gay). So this suggests the Grizzlies -- a team that has never won an NBA playoff game -- might defeat the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Although I am tempted to make such a pick, I am going to guess that Manu Ginobili will eventually be healthy enough to make a contribution."
"This is a tough one," Voulgaris says, "because the status of Ginobili is still uncertain at the deadline for making the picks. If he is healthy, this series could be over in five. Memphis matches up pretty well against the Spurs, but it's a pretty big stretch to expect an inexperienced bunch like the Griz to win four out of seven versus the Spurs."
Stahlhut says, "Ginobili is one of the biggest difference-makers in the league. With full health, we expect the Spurs to prevail in the series 69.2 percent of the time, with Spurs in five being the most likely result. However, with Ginobili out, the series becomes essentially a coin flip."
Sorry but... this is nonsense.
The #1 factor in every playoff game this season will be Pop not playing a frontcourt of Blair + Bonner. Anything else is already a distant 2nd to that.
Furthermore the Spurs would have lost a few more games in the first 3 months of the season if Ginobili had been out (he was playing really well), they might have won a few more at the end, though.
bonner will choke again, he is like a mavs player.
I think Tim Duncan will surprise a lot of people and will be a vintage Timmy in a lot of games
good analysis timvp!!
I'm glad Manu's injury isn't so serious that he can't participate in the playoffs....still it's a worry...big 3 had to be healthy for spurs to have a chance at the le...now we're down to 2.5. Hope Manu heals quickly.
WOOOOOO lets get this started!! the grizzlies wanted us, now they got us and were gonna shove it down their throats!! SPURS IN 5.
I also think that this is the perfect series to get matt bonner rolling for playoffs...finally. If he cant get rolling in this series, well then he is the ultimate unclutch player of all time.
IF....
a big IF....
BUT IF...
Bonner can just suck a little less...the spurs can beat anyone...but only IF Bonner somehow nutz up and actually plays tough....
I am not holding my breath or anything but hopefully Bonner gets wind of all the hate he is getting...
MAYBE
he will feel insulted enough to "care" again...like he did before the last phoenix game (the one played in san antonio) and actually come out with a chip on his shoulder and scramble for loose balls...rebound...play a little with an edge...
nah...I AM in' dreamin'
On the other hand...if Pop would just give Bonners minutes to Tiago and/or Blair...the spurs might just dominate.
Also I would add sharing the basketball is key. When the Spurs are passing the ball and getting the offense flowing they are almost impossible to defend. Especially with Manu running the show he is impossible to use defensive schemes against.
If the Spurs get into 1 on 1 offensive possessions they are in trouble. Grizzlies have good perimeter defenders and will try to force San Antonio to play 1 on 1 basketball. Spurs have the basketball IQ on their side and need to abuse these playoff virgins.
The Spurs are the better team because of the recipe their roster and coaching provides. Lose part of that and the recipe changes. The Spurs without Manu aren't the Spurs of this season.
Pop has said before "No Manu, no championship"
Good points, and I have said many of the same things, but I just disagree with how "close" you make it. I don't think that even without Ginobili, that it is a toss up. Spurs should win, even with a reduced Ginobili.
Again, my concern with this series is that even after a win, you will be banged up big time while LA will be getting massages as they play
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