but Game 1 pretty much saw everything go the Grizz way.

Memphis is to enjoy a frontcourt advantage this whole series, the Spurs can't do much to change that (even if they played Tiago at his absolute best for 35 minutes). But that doesn't mean the Grizz can reasonably expect Randolph/Gasol to combine for 76% and almost 2 points-per-shot again. Those two could go for 60%+ and 1.6 points-per-shot, which is still beating the out of our bigs...and the Spurs would have won semi-comfortably by 8-10.

Meanwhile, San Antonio's backcourt, where the Spurs can expect an advantage (even sans Manu), got played to a standstill.

There's are multiple places where you can expect the Spurs to improve and Memphis to fall back to earth the rest of the series. Depending on whether you think Duncan was a mirage or the emergence of playoff Timmy, really the only place thing that went San Antonio's way was an unusually high total FTs (which led to a +14 FTA advantage), but any tightly called game is not going to be in Memphis' favor.