Keys for the remainder of the series..

[HarlemHeat37]

#1 - Tony Parker..Obviously, Parker is the key to the series..he’s the primary reason the Spurs are currently down 2-1..he’s supposed to be the best player on the team(IMO), and he’s supposed to be the primary matchup advantage for the Spurs(everybody expected Memphis’ frontcourt to do damage)..

This has been the worst series of his career, so far, IMO..worse than 2002 or 2003, worse than any early series vs. LA, worse than the battles against Devin Harris..he’s making bad decisions, he’s missing shots, and he’s playing horrible D..

Memphis is obviously closing down the paint on him, giving Parker good looks from mid-range and out..he’s currently shooting 18% on jump shots in this series, an atrocious number..

More importantly, Mike Conley has outplayed him 2-1 in this series, both Memphis wins..

The Spurs are 40-2 when Tony Parker outplays the opposing starting PG, including the only W in this series..when Parker is being outplayed by the opposing starting PG, the Spurs are 16-15, including both Ls in this series..they are just a .500 team when Tony Parker is outplayed..

The Grizzlies are 25-8 when Conley outplays the opposing PG, and 16-24 when he doesn’t, a well below average team..


#2- minutes..The lineup of Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson-McDyess-Duncan has an adjusted +/- of over 11..they have outplayed the Grizzlies starting lineup for the most part..however, their minutes have been relatively limited, for some reason..

At this point, it doesn’t make sense to limit minutes..their minutes were managed during the regular season, they should be able to play 38+ minutes, when needed, especially since the bench has been mediocre..

The Spurs are not good enough to be looking ahead to the later rounds, especially when Memphis is probably their 2nd worst matchup in the West..


#3- 3-point shooting..The Grizzlies were 27th in the NBA in 3-point shooting, this season..yet, in this series, they have risen over 4% in efficiency, 5th in the playoffs, so far..to be honest, they have had success on jump shots against the Spurs, all season..

Memphis has ty shooters, but they’re still NBA players that can make wide open looks..this leads me to believe that the Spurs are overplaying the interior, allowing far too many wide open looks from outside..

When Blair is in the game, the strategy is to front Randolph, which forces the help defender to rotate quicker, once the entry pass is successfully entered inside..even if the pass isn’t successfully entered, the help defender still has to focus on the help D/trap, if Randolph catches it..this obviously leads to open shooters..

When Bonner is in the game, he has needed a double team on most plays, even against Darrell Arthur, Memphis’ 3rd string, scrub big man..

When McDyess/Duncan are in the game, the Grizzlies have only attempted 6 3-point shots(excluding desperation shots)..

When Blair and/or Bonner are in the game, the Grizzlies have attempted 19 3-point shots, mostly on open looks and from interior passing..

My first thought is that the Grizzlies are shooting more 3s, because Randolph/Gasol are less likely to be on the floor, when Bonner and/or Blair are on the floor, which forces Memphis’ perimeter players to make plays..however, this is false, as Randoloh/Gasol/Arthur have all been on the floor for a significant amount of minutes, against either Bonner/Blair, or both..

From watching, it's evident that the Spurs are having to overplay Memphis' bigs when Bonner or Blair are on the floor..it's a tough decision, whether to keep helping aggressively or not..Duncan and McDyess have held their own, for the most part, which is evident in the +/- stats, unit and individual..

Spurs’ D has been horrible with Bonner and/or Blair on the floor, which is displayed in the statistics..Blair has had the worst on/off impact on the team, while Bonner isn't far behind..Spurs will have a decision to make, in this regard..


#4 - bench play..The Spurs bench was the 5th most productive bench in the NBA, while the Grizzlies bench was 28th in the league, during the regular season..in this series, there has not been a significant difference between the two benches..

The Spurs bench has underachieved, yet they have received more minutes than expected..the starters have played well, yet they have received less minutes than expected..Pop will have to make a decision, in regards to minutes, or the bench will have to elevate their game, to warrant the minutes they have been receiving..

[Warlord23]

When Blair and/or Bonner are in the game, the Grizzlies have attempted 19 3-point shots, mostly on open looks and from interior passing..

So Bonner does spread the floor when he is in ... see, Pop was right all the time!

[ElNono]

Thanks for the writeup

[Mugen]

Good writeup HH. But Parker is really the only key to winning this series. The other 3 keys could remain the same and we still win if Parker just plays average for him.

[Brazil]

Good writeup HH. But Parker is really the only key to winning this series. The other 3 keys could remain the same and we still win if Parker just plays average for him.

lol

[Spurs Brazil]

Great post HH

[sa_butta]

Bench needs to come up big, but more importantly we just flat out need to make our shots. I really think we need to get good looks early and try to get shots near and around the basket...Then work outside as the game and confidence progresses.

[crc21209]

All great points Harlem. The #1 problem is absolutely Tony Parker. If he can just be the Tony we all know and love the Spurs will be just fine. Hill, Neal, and Bonner also have to at least hit half of their shots combined. Neal and Bonner were completely off the other night......

[z0sa]

Tony Parker

Tony Parker

Tony Parker

Tony Parker

Tony Parker

Memphis has won by a combined 6 points with Parker playing like dog .

If we lose the series, Pop can rest easy because this one's on Parker 100%.

[DesignatedT]

[DAF86]

To me the key is to prevent Bonner and Blair from spending time in the floor together, I don't know what the plus/minus for the Spurs is with that frontcourt but I'm sure it must suck. That can be done by either:

a) Playing Splitter instead of Blair or...

b) Starting Blair and benching Dice, with McDyess still getting more minutes and finishing games. The Spurs are a mediocre 11-11 since the Blair/McDyess switch.

With Pop on the bench option B is the only real possibility, I hope he makes the change.

[rmt]

So Bonner does spread the floor when he is in ... see, Pop was right all the time!

Never thought of it from the defensive side I shouldn't be laughing - it's really sad.