This week, Insider has looked at the stars of the 2012 free-agent crop, headlined by Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Dwight Howard. In addition to them, another group of players would have inspired similar bidding wars had they been on the market a decade ago. Now that they're in their late 30s, age keeps them from being max-level players, but these free agents still can contribute to a team -- and could be valuable pickups when they hit the open market next summer.
Tim Duncan
Duncan's reputation has suffered for two reasons. For one, Duncan is inevitably compared to his own MVP prime, one that would be difficult to match for almost any player. Beyond that, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich's careful handling of Duncan's playing time has prevented him from racking up impressive per-game statistics.
On a per-minute basis, Duncan's defensive numbers remain just as good as they were in his prime. Duncan no longer can make multiple defensive plays on the same possession -- such as stepping out to thwart the pick-and-roll before recovering to defend the basket -- but then again, neither can most big men.
On offense, Duncan has dropped off. The key difference is that he no longer gets to the free throw line on a frequent basis. Historically, about 15 percent of Duncan's offense has come from free throws. That dropped to a career-low 11 percent in 2010-11. Without those easy points, Duncan's scoring efficiency has slipped below average. His role in San Antonio's attack -- already smaller than it had ever been -- might need to shrink again next season.
Despite those caveats, Duncan remains one of the league's top big men. He ranked seventh among post players in Basketball Prospectus' wins above replacement (WARP) statistic last season. His per-minute performance put him as the league's 10th-best player. Duncan probably has another season or maybe two as an All-Star-level player as he ages gracefully at 35. Fittingly, his closest comparison at the same age is former teammate David Robinson, who made his last All-Star team at 36 and started on a championship team at age 38 before retiring.
Presumably, Duncan will join his predecessor in retiring as a lifelong member of the Spurs. In the unlikely event he looks elsewhere, his game and temperament would be a perfect veteran complement to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder won't have cap room in 2012 but could offer some young prospects to San Antonio as part of a sign-and-trade deal.
Reply With Quote
