BY JOHN HOLLINGER
June 14, 2005
http://www.infobae.com/notas/nota.ph...Seccion=100421
We've finally found Manu Ginobili's calling. Much like Jimi Hendrix was put on this Earth to play guitar and Marv Albert was born to announce basketball games, Ginobili is here for one purpose: to ruin Larry Brown's life.
By now, the Detroit Pistons' coach must be having nightmares about the Spurs' forward. Remember, it was Ginobili who started Brown's basketball year by carving up Team USA's defense in Argentina's Olympic semifinal win, forcing the U.S. to settle for a bronze medal. Now he's on track to finish off Brown's year by doing the same thing with the Spurs.
San Antonio's mighty wingman was simply awesome in the first two games of the NBA Finals. To say this is an unexpected development would be an understatement. After the way Detroit's Tayshaun Prince kept Miami's Dwyane Wade under wraps for much of the Eastern Conference finals, it seemed Ginobili would have a tough time reaching his regular-season averages of 16.0 points per game and 47.1% shooting from the field. Instead, Ginobili has vastly exceeded those numbers, burning the Pistons for 53 points in the first two games and taking over both contests in the fourth quarter.
If you're looking for a stat that shows how amazing Ginobili has been, try this one on. I keep a stat called "True Shooting Percentage," which measures what a player's shooting percentage would be if we included foul shots and 3-pointers. A normal figure is in the low 50s; in the first two games of the Finals, Ginobili's mark is 84.2%! He has 53 points and eight missed shots. No wonder the Spurs have walked to a 2-0 lead.
While we're seeing Ginobili at his absolute best, this looks like less of a fluke when seen in the context of the rest of his postseason. Ginobili has played brilliant basketball throughout, sporting the highest playoff Player Efficiency Rating (my measure of a player's per minute statistical production) of any player whose team made it past the first round - surpassing even his superstar teammate Tim Duncan.
For the postseason, Magic Manu is shooting 52.9% from the floor, averaging 27.1 points and 5.3 assists per 40 minutes, making nearly half his 3-pointers, and maintaining a sizzling True Shooting Percentage of 67.8%. His PER in 28 games is 27.73, which would have ranked second behind only Kevin Garnett during the regular season.
With Ginobili's postseason outburst, the Spurs have effectively gone from a one-superstar team centered around Duncan to a two-superstar powerhouse. That combination is essentially unbeatable, because the Spurs pair their superstar power with dominant defense.
While we've all been left slack jawed by Ginobili's mad forays to the rim, Detroit's offensive anemia in the first two games is an equally important development. Perhaps we shouldn't be surprised: Detroit ranks only 10th among the 16 playoff teams in postseason Offensive Efficiency, my measure of points scored per 100 possessions. The Pistons' playoff mark of 101.0 is well below the postseason average of 104.9, but Detroit outlasted its Eastern Conference foes mainly because of its tough defense. Going against the league's best defensive team in San Antonio was bound to be a challenge for Detroit.
Nevertheless, we didn't expect it to be this challenging. After two games, the Pistons still haven't broken the 80-point barrier, and they've shot badly in doing so - 37.7% in the opener, 40.2% in Game 2. They've also limited their options by taking almost all their shots from 2-point range: The Pistons have attempted just 12 3-pointers thus far and made just one. Contrast that with the Spurs, who shot 11-of-24 from downtown in Game 2, allowing them to win handily despite making fewer 2-point field goals than the Pistons.
Individually, Detroit's leading scorers haven't managed to get untracked. Richard Hamilton has been harassed by San Antonio's Bruce Bowen into a 12-for-36 shooting performance. All the easy looks he got off curls in the conference finals against Miami have vanished, replaced by contested jumpers, pressured drives to the basket, and lots of whining at the refs.
The Spurs have similarly erased Rasheed Wallace from the Pistons' attack. The long-armed power forward made his first three shots in Game 1 but hasn't been heard from since, with a total of 17 points in the two games. His frontcourt counterpart, Ben Wallace, has fared even worse. Normally an energizer at both ends of the floor with his defense and rebounding, the Defensive Player of the Year has managed a modest 7.0 points and 7.5 rebounds, and his ineffective play spurred Brown to yank him in both fourth quarters in a desperate search for more offense.
Detroit's only saving grace has been Chauncey Billups, who is taking advantage of his physical mismatch against the Spurs' Tony Parker. Billups's 25 points and six assists kept the Pistons alive in Game 1 - until Ginobili took over in the fourth quarter. In Game 2, Billups wasn't quite as proficient, but he scored six points in a 10-3 run early in the fourth quarter to close the gap to 81-73 - at which point Ginobili struck again to put things out of reach.
Even defensively, Ginobili has been in the thick of it all. While everyone is raving about Manu's offense, he held Prince to 5-for-21 shooting and just 14 points in Games 1 and 2 combined. He's handcuffed Prince by fronting him in the post, overplaying his left hand, and relying on Duncan to bail him out around the basket. Ginobili also has four steals, including a spectacular deflection and save on an entry pass to Prince in the fourth quarter of Game 2.It provided the exclamation point on the Spurs' game clinching 13-0 fourth-quarter run, one in which Manu scored or assisted on 11 of the 13 points.
In doing so, the Argentinan has turned the Finals upside down. Detroit figured it would play San Antonio roughly to a draw at the small forward spot because of Prince's prowess. Instead, The Pistons have been outscored 53-14 at the small forward spot.
For Game 3, the Pistons should assign a different defender to Ginobili, or even try double-teaming him, because the current strategy isn't working. They've lost the two games by a total of 36 points, while Ginobili has beaten Prince individually by 39. It doesn't take much to connect the dots here - this match up is the difference between the two teams. Once again, Manu Ginobili is haunting Larry Brown.
Expect the overall team disparity to lessen somwhat @DET, but it will not be anywhere near reversed. Piston just might, only might, break 80 pts.
Re-watching Game2, I was amazed at the 48-minute hustle the Spurs put on.
Their legs, all 24 of them, in 4th qtr were as fresh as at tip-off.
The magnetic power and infinite energy of Trophy-love black hole is propelling the Spurs now. There is no escaping.
( and we got Manu for a bargain. He's a MAX contract player. )
I was thinking the other day that Larry Brown was probably having nightmares all over again what Manu did to team USA. I bet Pop and Duncan are glad he's on there side this time
Manu Superstar? not yet, perhaps in the near future
How easy will be Spurs' life in Detroit's arena, I think SA will have to deal and fight with some refs, you know ... it their home.
Manu for a bargain? yeap, I don't know how Spurs could be done better.
Endorsement? I think this will be they to give more money to Manu, but for sure he prefer another ring ... and another ... and another.
How can Detroit stop Manu? No other team has been able to.
Double-team? And leave Tony, Tim, Nazr or Bruce open? That won't work.
Who else can defend Manu? Rip would get tired out and in foul trouble.
Unless Detroit turns on their team defense to a new level....
Manu Superstar? not yet, perhaps in the near future
Manu is a superstar...there is no doubt about that.
A Legend is Being Born
(and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy).
Just curious...
Several times this season, I've seen reporters refer to Manu as a forward. I know he has occasionally played that position when we've gone small, but I'm suprised at this point in the season that some people don't know he's our starting 2 guard. What gives?
It's the same dilemma that faced Denver, Seattle and Phoenix. They all said they'd make adjustments and stop Manu. In fact, Detroit said the same after game one (something about putting him on his butt). So far, no team has shut Manu down, and I don't see Tayshaun Prince growing into that role overnight.
Whoa. That was my 1000th post. Where have all the keystrokes gone?
Ginobili has been spectacular and brilliant in these playoffs by any statistical performance measure that you want to use.
Manu leads all players in +/- points, which include 3 Spurs' players in the top 3 and 4 in the top 5.
Playoff +/- Leaders (as of 6/13)
# Player Team +/- W L
1 Ginobili SAS +179 17 1
2 Horry SAS +127 15 3
3 Duncan SAS +111 13
3 4 E.Jones MIA +94 9 4
5 Parker SAS +93 12 6
6 Prince DET +90 13 7
7 Wade MIA +85 10 4
8 Johnson PHO +81 6 3
9 Haslem MIA +80 11 4
10 D.Jones MIA +78 13 2
W-L reflect game by game +/- tallies for a player
To measure how important he has been for the Spurs, take a look at the On/Off Court +/- for the Spurs.
Player On Court +/- Off Court +/- Team Net +/-
Ginobili +14.5 -5.3 +19.7
Robinson +18.0 +6.8 +11.2
Horry +12.8 +2.7 +10.1
Udrih +13.9 +6.4 +7.5
Nesterovic +13.4 +7.6 +5.8
Duncan +8.1 +8.7 -0.5
Massenburg +4.5 +8.3 -3.9
Parker +6.8 +12.9 -6.1
Brown +1.4 +8.5 -7.1
Barry +4.4 +12.2 -7.9
Mohammed +2.9 +13.3 -10.4
Bowen +2.8 +21.4 -18.6
Using simpler statistical metrics like Tendex and Tendex/48min, Ginobili leads the entire league in Tendex/48min, and ranks 7th in pure Tendex despite logging almost 10 less minutes than the leaders and top players!
MyTendex (min 6 games)
Player Team MyTend
1) mcgrady,tracy Hou 31.00
2) nash,steve Pho 29.10
3) stoudemire,amare Pho 28.75
4) pierce,paul Bos 28.21
5) duncan,tim San 27.11
6) wade,dwyane Mia 26.20
7) ginobili,manu San 24.54
8) nowitzki,dirk Dal 24.27
9) marion,shawn Pho 24.15
10) allen,ray Sea 23.43
11) hinrich,kirk Chi 22.38
12) ming,yao Hou 22.36
13) arenas,gilbert Was 20.70
14) billups,chauncey Det 20.55
15) johnson,joe Pho 20.28
16) terry,jason Dal 20.21
17) hughes,larry Was 19.10
18) wallace,ben Det 17.54
19) o'neal,shaquille Mia 17.15
20) daniels,antonio Sea 16.66
** Avg for Position = 10.30.
MyTendex/48min (min 20.0 min/gm)
Player Team Tend/48
1) ginobili,manu San 35.88
2) duncan,tim San 35.38
3) mcgrady,tracy Hou 34.60
4) stoudemire,amare Pho 34.44
5) nash,steve Pho 34.35
6) pierce,paul Bos 34.22
7) ming,yao Hou 34.15
8) wade,dwyane Mia 30.83
9) hinrich,kirk Chi 30.25
10) allen,ray Sea 28.38
11) chandler,tyson Chi 27.70
12) nowitzki,dirk Dal 27.48
13) marion,shawn Pho 27.38
14) daniels,antonio Sea 26.57
15) haywood,brendan Was 25.70
16) horry,robert San 25.24
17) terry,jason Dal 25.22
18) billups,chauncey Det 25.07
19) o'neal,shaquille Mia 24.84
20) johnson,joe Pho 24.68
** Avg for Position = 18.14.
Just to give you some context, a Tendex/48min of ~35.00 is reserved only for the top 2-3 players in the entire league, i.e. the MVP candidates. I am a big fan of his game, but at the beginning of the playoffs, when he started putting Tendex/48min of 35, I sincerely thought it was a statistical anomally based on very few samples. There was no way that Manu would be able to sustain that rate the rest of the playoffs.
Ginobili, despite playing 33 min/g in the playoffs, ranks (using a minimum of 6 games, 48 FGA, and 12 3PTA):
His total stats are equally impressive:
- 10th in PTS/g (22.3),
- 4th in PTS/48 (32.6),
- 36th in FGA/g (12.5) [this is increadible, considering his points/g, there are 26 top scorers that should be scratching their heads!]
- 9th in FG% (0.529),
- 8th in 3PT% (0.486),
- 13th in 2PT% (0.550),
- 1st in PPS (1.79),
- 5th in AdjFG% (0.609),
- 29th in FT% (0.789),
- 7th in FTA/g (8.94),
- 6th in FTM/g (7.1),
- 21th in DR/g (4.9),
- 38th in TR/g (5.8),
- 15th in AST/g (4.33),
- 17th in AST/48 (6.3),
- 18th in STL/g (1.28),
- 19th in STL/48 (1.87)
Hollinger is correct. Manu is playing in these playoffs at superstar level. He has been so far one of the most efficient players in the history of the playoffs (and may be the most efficient ever), and so far in the first 2 games of the finals, the most efficient ever in the history of the NBA finals.
- 4th in points (401),
- 2nd in 3PTM (36),
- 7th in 3PTA (74),
- 3rd in FTA (161)
- 2nd in FTM (127)
- 11th in rebounds (104),
- 6th in assists (78),
- 3rd in steals (23)
Last edited by Rick Von Braun; 06-14-2005 at 10:42 AM.
some of this shouldnt be surprising. we saw in his rookie season that he was a big game player, especially in the finals. i am glad that his star is blowing up like it is and i am sure that holt cat and friends are creaming their pants at the thought of a spanish speaking hispanic superstar in the silver & black for the next 5 seasons.
every night holt cat must say a special prayer for restricted free agency.
It's pretty hard to stop a team with two superstars and one nearly-superstar--and another one who's merely 1st Team ALLNBA defense. And the Pistons are finding out.
i BET DENVER IS KICKING THEMSELVES FOR NOT OFFERING MANU A CONTRACT
denver would have had to offer manu the max in order to have had a chance at shaking the spurs off...
the one nice thing is that tony is significantly younger than td and manu.
Your contribution was excellent, and I am very excited about Manu for many reasons,
but ... I have a doubt...
Superstar is a question of Stats or... a question of consideration for fans, officials or sth like that?
Your contribution was excellent, and I am very excited about Manu for many reasons,
but ... I have a doubt...
Superstar is a question of Stats or... a question of consideration for fans, officials or sth like that?
I think it is also a question of clutchness.... Manu has definitely shown he has it.
"clutchness"
well, yes, but clutch scoring doesn't do Manu justice. He is every coach's a dream, a "born winner" who will find many ways to win, eg, that steal and out of bounds save in the 4th qtr in Game2. Deflates the other team trying to get back in the game.
Question:
Has a Finals MVP ever been benched in Game 2 of their playoff run?
Manu was relegated to the bench in favor of Barry, if you remember.
Labels are what they are... the difference between a star or superstar is completely subjective.
to violentkitten, superstar = franchise player, someone you can build a team around and get you 50 regular season wins and/or make the playoffs.
star = something less than that, yet an exceptional player who at times can carry a team himself.
man is definitely a "star" by violentkitten's definition as of now.
He's an star alright. I'm just glad he's not a free agent this summer and that we signed him last summer. The way that he's been performing he could've gotten some major money then he did.
Over @ Woai or Spurzone there's an article about Carlos Delfino, he stated that after game 1 his Det teammates & L.Brown all came to him @ different points & asked "how do you defend him (Manu)?"
That can't be right. Is these stats saying that the team is doing more or less the same with or without Duncan on the floor?? And that Udrih is doing better than Parker?? I honestly ask. I don't know much of the theory behind this.
Or is it that Ginobili makes Udrih look better than he is?
Did KG get his team to 50 wins, how about Kobe, or AI. Seems like your definition doesn't fly.
Superstar is coming up large in the biggest games, and having the offensive ability to put up 40 at anytime. Add leadership abilities, a compe ive mean streak, and a few championships and you have Manu!
If Manu is not a superstar and then I haven't seen one.
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