real talk...and the 99% vs 1%

[The_Worlds_finest]

I look at this graph and set a goal to be in that top 1%. What about you?

[ElNono]

If you don't make it, you only have yourself to blame, tbh

[Th'Pusher]

I look at your response to the graph and think you're a moron because you're never going to be in the top 1%. You probably play the lotto too, huh?

[greyforest]

[The_Worlds_finest]

Yeah i play the lotto when its over 100million, (which happens maybe 10 times a year). My reasoning is (and this might go over your head). its the only way you can turn 1 dollar into 100 million. ill even do the thinking for you,
Lets say i play the rest of my life spending say. 20 bucks a year for the rest of my life, that's $1000. Sure the odds are against me to never win the jackpot. however investing 1000 over the course of my life to possibly win 100-150 million isn't a bad investment at all.

[Drachen]

Yeah i play the lotto when its over 100million, (which happens maybe 10 times a year). My reasoning is (and this might go over your head). its the only way you can turn 1 dollar into 100 million. ill even do the thinking for you,
Lets say i play the rest of my life spending say. 20 bucks a year for the rest of my life, that's $1000. Sure the odds are against me to never win the jackpot. however investing 1000 over the course of my life to possibly win 100-150 million isn't a bad investment at all.

except it is. I ran the numbers in one of my finance classes last year and the expected payoff of a 1 dollar ticket is about 75 cents (when the lotto is 325 million). Now if the emotional thrill is worth more than 25 cents per ticket, then it is absolutely a good deal. (My numbers may be a little off since it was a year ago, but they are close)

Edit: I won't make fun of you though. I have bought a lottery ticket twice in my life (when it reaches 350 million it is hard to resist).

[Th'Pusher]

Yeah i play the lotto when its over 100million, (which happens maybe 10 times a year). My reasoning is (and this might go over your head). its the only way you can turn 1 dollar into 100 million. ill even do the thinking for you,
Lets say i play the rest of my life spending say. 20 bucks a year for the rest of my life, that's $1000. Sure the odds are against me to never win the jackpot. however investing 1000 over the course of my life to possibly win 100-150 million isn't a bad investment at all.

Delusional.

[LnGrrrR]

except it is. I ran the numbers in one of my finance classes last year and the expected payoff of a 1 dollar ticket is about 75 cents (when the lotto is 325 million). Now if the emotional thrill is worth more than 25 cents per ticket, then it is absolutely a good deal. (My numbers may be a little off since it was a year ago, but they are close)

Edit: I won't make fun of you though. I have bought a lottery ticket twice in my life (when it reaches 350 million it is hard to resist).

Reminds me of the Lottery Ticket Paradox.

[The_Worlds_finest]

except it is. I ran the numbers in one of my finance classes last year and the expected payoff of a 1 dollar ticket is about 75 cents (when the lotto is 325 million). Now if the emotional thrill is worth more than 25 cents per ticket, then it is absolutely a good deal. (My numbers may be a little off since it was a year ago, but they are close)

Edit: I won't make fun of you though. I have bought a lottery ticket twice in my life (when it reaches 350 million it is hard to resist).

Drachen, im sorry make fun of me? okay so if its not 100 its 50 big whoop again a fairly good return on 1 dollar. Now my turn to "make fun of you" what investment has better odds of turning 1 dollar into 50-100 million? Even the 1000 dollar life time investment.

[ElNono]

except it is. I ran the numbers in one of my finance classes last year and the expected payoff of a 1 dollar ticket is about 75 cents (when the lotto is 325 million). Now if the emotional thrill is worth more than 25 cents per ticket, then it is absolutely a good deal. (My numbers may be a little off since it was a year ago, but they are close)

I'd like to see the math behind this, tbh. And yes, I understand that your chances of hitting the jackpot approach zero very rapidly. I also wouldn't consider it an 'investment', just a 'gamble'.

[Cry Havoc]

I'd like to see the math behind this, tbh. And yes, I understand that your chances of hitting the jackpot approach zero very rapidly. I also wouldn't consider it an 'investment', just a 'gamble'.

I hit a 3,000,000 to 1 sweepstakes. It happens. Just not often.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah i play the lotto when its over 100million, (which happens maybe 10 times a year). My reasoning is (and this might go over your head). its the only way you can turn 1 dollar into 100 million. ill even do the thinking for you,
Lets say i play the rest of my life spending say. 20 bucks a year for the rest of my life, that's $1000. Sure the odds are against me to never win the jackpot. however investing 1000 over the course of my life to possibly win 100-150 million isn't a bad investment at all.

Its a terrible investment. You fail at statistics. Your ROI of that 1000 is ty as compared to the money you would get by investing it.

[MannyIsGod]

I'd like to see the math behind this, tbh. And yes, I understand that your chances of hitting the jackpot approach zero very rapidly. I also wouldn't consider it an 'investment', just a 'gamble'.

Powerball odds are 1 in 195,249,054 so if you diveded your 1000 dollars by that your ROI is 5.12 x 10^-4 cents. Yes, your ROI is not even one ing cent. In fact, its much lower than one cent. Even at a paltry compounded interest rate I know a 20 a dollar annual investment will go much further.

Winning the smaller prizes actually raises your ROI but I'm pretty sure that splitting the main prize also lowers it and there's a chance of that happening as well and because I'm not in the mood to calculate all that only to have it be far lower than one cent still I'll just leave it at that.

[ElNono]

Powerball odds are 1 in 195,249,054 so if you diveded your 1000 dollars by that your ROI is 5.12 x 10^-4 cents. Yes, your ROI is not even one ing cent. In fact, its much lower than one cent. Even at a paltry compounded interest rate I know a 20 a dollar annual investment will go much further.

Winning the smaller prizes actually raises your ROI but I'm pretty sure that splitting the main prize also lowers it and there's a chance of that happening as well and because I'm not in the mood to calculate all that only to have it be far lower than one cent still I'll just leave it at that.

He didn't talk about ROI, he talked about "expected payoff of a 1 dollar ticket is about 75 cents". I understand what the odds are, and it's exactly why it's a gamble, not an investment. The point, however, is that sometimes somebody does hit. If there's an expected payoff, then that would imply an expected win. If you're cir scribing to winners, then you already did away with the odds of winning, you won. That's why I was curious to see the breakdown. Not saying I'm not wrong or got the wrong idea from what he typed there.

[MannyIsGod]

I missed what Drachen said which is my fault considering you were replying to him.

Assuming the jackpot was 325 million - like he said - if you bought all the tickets you'd make money but depending on the tax situation (can you write off your initial expense? If not you're going to lose money after the Tax Man comes in) but at this point I don't care enough. I can't look at these situations outside of my previous poker history anymore. Also ,because of I simply think of a gamble as a bad investment.

[baseline bum]

We have some great company there in Mexico, China, and Argentina.

[ElNono]

I missed what Drachen said which is my fault considering you were replying to him.

Assuming the jackpot was 325 million - like he said - if you bought all the tickets you'd make money but depending on the tax situation (can you write off your initial expense? If not you're going to lose money after the Tax Man comes in) but at this point I don't care enough. I can't look at these situations outside of my previous poker history anymore. Also ,because of I simply think of a gamble as a bad investment.

Well, this is where academia departs from reality or, at least, the premise presented earlier ($20/year)... we agree it's a gamble

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

The OP is someone who is too stupid to ever sniff the top 1%. Probably doesn't have any post HS education and probably doesn't have any clue how to reach the top 1% ( lottery), but just says he'll strive to be in the top 1% with nothing really behind it.

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

And lottery jackpots are paid as an annuity, the present value of what you actually get isn't anywhere close to the jackpot number. When someone in Arizona won the $300,000,000 jackpot a few years ago I think the lump sum he could take was around $90,000,000.

[Gordon Gekko]

A real man creates his own luck.

[Agloco]

I look at this graph and set a goal to be in that top 1%. What about you?

What's your plan?

If you don't make it, you only have yourself to blame, tbh

- Signed Hermann Cain

And lottery jackpots are paid as an annuity, the present value of what you actually get isn't anywhere close to the jackpot number. When someone in Arizona won the $300,000,000 jackpot a few years ago I think the lump sum he could take was around $90,000,000.

It's still 90 mil more than you had before. If I was ever that lucky, I'd walk away and never look back, even if I only got 10 million.

[MannyIsGod]

Man life would be pretty damn good if I won 90 million. I'd fund my own research!

[DUNCANownsKOBE]

My point was that using the actual jackpot number to calculate ROI on the lottery tickets the OP seriously thinks were a good investment isn't accurate.

[Agloco]

Man life would be pretty damn good if I won 90 million. I'd fund my own research!

Seriously. Although I'd have to take care not to end up like this guy:

http://gizmodo.com/5826876/man-gets-...uclear-reactor

[Agloco]

My point was that using the actual jackpot number to calculate ROI on the lottery tickets the OP seriously thinks were a good investment isn't accurate.

Yeah, my bad. I jumped into it late.