Dr. Paul leads Iowa

[cheguevara]

I thought the debate ruined Paul's chances

Paul Moves Into Lead in Iowa Forecast
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...iowa-forecast/
Our Iowa forecasts, which are designed to be quite aggressive, have had a big reaction to the new Public Policy Polling survey published late Sunday evening. The poll showed Newt Gingrich’s support slipping badly in Iowa and Ron Paul moving into the lead.

[cheguevara]

Can Ron Paul Win New Hampshire?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...re_112436.html

Unlike Mitt Romney, I am not a betting man. But if I were, I might go to Intrade right now and bet a bundle that Ron Paul will win the New Hampshire primary. The bettors there give that an 10 percent chance of happening, which would make for a pretty good payday.

Ron Paul can win New Hampshire because he can win the Iowa caucuses. (Intraders give Paul's Iowa victory a 40 percent chance.) New Hampshirites have never felt it necessary to follow the Iowa caucus-goers, but the dynamics of the race make their state a likely second pickup.




If those two unexpected events do occur, then all will rain down upon the Paulistas. The GOP establishment will throw everything including the kitchen sink, the garage door opener, and two dozen pair of oversized baboon dentures at Paul to keep him from becoming the nominee. But I am getting ahead of myself.

[boutons_deux]

Why (Very White) Iowa and New Hampshire Matter So Much in US Politics

Right now the presidential candidate race is all about New Hampshire and Iowa. More specifically, the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucuses. Conventional wisdom holds that losing in one of these states can damage a candidate severely, while a win all but cements their candidacy.

But the media frenzy around these two states—which aren’t exactly representative of the country’s class and racial diversity—has drawbacks.

“You’re hard pressed to find two whiter states,” says Matt Barreto, professor of political science and pollster for Latino Decisions, a polling firm that tracks the political leanings of Latinos.

And the lack of diversity has an effect on who gets initial attention from the media as the electoral process begins.

“The prominence and first-in-nation position of Iowa and New Hampshire do elevate white primary voters over non-white ones, and in both parties,” says Thomas Schaller, a professor of political science at University of Maryland, Baltimore County.

The life of the average Iowan or New Hampshirite doesn’t reflect the reality of the average American. Take a look at New Hampshire’s demographics, and you’ll see a state that’s nearly 94 percent white, with wealthier residents than the many states, far fewer foreign-born residents, and higher levels of educational attainment. Iowa is much the same: 91 percent white, high rates of home ownership, and low rates of poverty.

The short answer for why Iowa and New Hampshire matter: Symbolism. The Iowa caucuses are the first electoral events of the presidential campaign season; the New Hampshire primary is the first primary.


http://www.alternet.org/story/153486...paign=alternet

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Much more important for Repugs is the nation-wide disenfranchisement of "fraudulent voting" blacks, browns, students.

[cheguevara]

And the lack of diversity has an effect on who gets initial attention from the media as the electoral process begins.