3. San Antonio Spurs (42-24)
"Hey, remember us? We won more games than any team in the conference last season and lost in the playoffs partly because our best player was hurt. Feel free to ignore us until mid-April like you do every season, we'll just be quietly ac ulating victories while generating as little hype as possible."
Actually, I do have some decline factored in for the Spurs. In fact, I've projected them to lose more games in a 66-game season than they did last season in 82. But they had a lot of room to fall, and the compressed nature of the Western Conference standings means they'll still be in good shape vis-à-vis their compe ors.
The Spurs were largely an offensive team last season and that shouldn't change this season. In particular, scoring 4s will give them trouble, as Zach Randolph did in the playoffs last season. That may hinder them in the playoffs again if they draw the wrong matchup. You'll note that the five teams I just reviewed all employ a power forward the Spurs will have difficulty guarding.
But for the regular season, keep two points in mind about San Antonio. First, they're getting a dollop of youth and energy from rookie Kawhi Leonard and 2010 first-rounder James Anderson, who played only 26 games last season after breaking a bone in his foot. Second, their frontcourt should be much more imposing if they actually play Tiago Splitter, who was effective in his limited minutes last season and projects as a dramatic improvement on Antonio McDyess, who is set to retire.
The compressed schedule won't do their veterans any favors, but the Spurs are deep enough to spread around the minutes, and Gregg Popovich is the best in the league at managing the season. He won't hesitate to tank a game to keep his players fresh, and he may need to on multiple occasions this season.
The only worry for San Antonio is if it starts slow and decides to correct course and play for next season. The Spurs potentially have a giant wad of cap room next summer if they exercise their amnesty rights on
Richard Jefferson's contract and re-sign
Tim Duncan at a lower salary, and the oft-heard
Tony Parker trade rumors could come to fruition and open up additional space. I think it's unlikely they go that direction, but it warrants mentioning.