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I don't think pop will give up on more than 3 or 4 games except if the team has a really great record
The New Orleans games in the middle of the first B2B2B is the most obvious. Too bad it was also one of the easiest game of the season
In theory, getting an extended summer break and a shorter regular season would be music to the ears of a Spurs team featuring 35-year-old Tim Duncan and 34-year-old Manu Ginobili. However, any hypothetical advantageous aspects for veteran teams like San Antonio are more than canceled out by the fact that the schedule calls for 66 games in just 126 days.
Going into the 2011-12 regular season, the Spurs need a survival plan. The last few years, the team has prematurely peaked -- with last season being the ultimate example. If the Spurs are to peak at the right time this year, the coaching staff is going to have to strategically surrender a handful of games. The alternative -- attempting to grind their way through the 66 games -- is a surefire way to reach the playoffs with little left in the tank.
What would a "surrender" look like? Personally, I'd want Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker sitting out such games. Benching Duncan is the no-brainer because wear and tear has become increasingly problematic for his aging knees. Keeping Ginobili from expending too much energy so that he's able to peak in the playoffs, which truthfully hasn't been accomplished since 2005, is especially vital this season. And while Parker is young enough to give the 66-game schedule a go, it'd be foolish for him to burn extra fuel in games without Duncan and Ginobili.
Let's take a look at the schedule and find the surrender games. The contests highlighted in red are highly likely surrender games, while the orange ones are possible surrenders.
Mon 26 vs Grizzlies 7:30 PM
Wed 28 vs L.A. Clippers 7:30 PM
Thu 29 @ Houston 7:00 PM
Sat 31 vs Jazz 7:30 PM
Mon 02 @ Minnesota 7:00 PM
Wed 04 vs Warriors 7:30 PM
Thu 05 vs Mavericks 7:30 PM
The opening stretch of games will give us a good idea of how the coaching staff is planning to go attack this condensed schedule. The contest on Dec. 29 against the Rockets would be a good candidate for surrender since it's a back-to-back that includes travel and even less rest than usual due to the earlier start time, but I doubt that Pop waves the white flag for this one. The flight to Houston is short and since it's so early in the season, no one should be tired yet.
The Jan. 1 game against the T'Wolves will also be interesting. If Pop keeps his horses at home, that would allow the Big Three to avoid any travel (outside of short trips to Houston) from the start of camp until the second week of January. But again, it's early in the season and the Spurs have a day off before and after the game in Minnesota so it's unlikely that it will be a surrender game.
On Jan. 4 and Jan. 5, the Spurs have a back-to-back with both games being at home. During a normal regular season, it's very rare to have this type of back-to-back. In fact, last year San Antonio didn't have a single one. With travel taken out of the equation, I expect that these back-to-backs won't be nearly as worrisome as the regular variety.
Sat 07 vs Nuggets 7:30 PM
Sun 08 @ Oklahoma City 6:00 PM
Tue 10 @ Milwaukee 7:00 PM
Wed 11 vs Rockets 7:30 PM
Fri 13 vs Trail Blazers 7:30 PM
Sun 15 vs Suns 8:00 PM
This is the first truly grueling stretch for the Spurs in 2012 -- it's six games in only nine nights. The Jan. 8 game against the Thunder is the a highly likely surrender game. With an hour and a half start time difference on top of the travel, I expect the coaching staff to keep the Big Three off of the chartered jet to Oklahoma City.
The Jan. 10 game is also a possible surrender game. If Pop actually plays his full squad against the Thunder, he'd do so knowing that the Bucks game would be surrendered. Could the coaching staff surrender both the Thunder game and the Bucks game? It's possible but that would be a lot of white flag waving early in the season.
Tue 17 @ Miami 6:30 PM
Wed 18 @ Orlando 6:00 PM
Fri 20 vs Kings 7:30 PM
Sat 21 @ Houston 7:00 PM
Mon 23 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Wed 25 vs Hawks 7:30 PM
Fri 27 @ Minnesota 7:00 PM
Sun 29 @ Dallas 5:30 PM
Mon 30 @ Memphis 7:00 PM
While not technically the Rodeo Road Trip, this nine-game stretch is very Rodeo Road Trip-esque. There are two home games thrown in but the Spurs will just be passing through San Antonio and won't even have time to unpack.
This stretch starts with another six-game, nine-night run before easing up a little bit. The Jan. 18 and Jan. 21 games are possible surrender games. If I had to guess, I'd bet on Pop surrendering against the Magic but probably going ahead and playing the Rockets with a full roster.
Jan. 30 against the Grizzlies could be surrendered but since it's a short trip and the game starts an hour and a half later, it's not an automatic decision.
Wed 01 vs Rockets 7:30 PM
Thu 02 vs Hornets 7:30 PM
Sat 04 vs Thunder 7:30 PM
The Spurs get three home games before the Rodeo Road Trip. Sandwiched between two difficult stretches, the Spurs will need to take care of business in these three outings.
Mon 06 @ Memphis 7:00 PM
Wed 08 @ Philadelphia 6:00 PM
Sat 11 @ New Jersey 7:00 PM
Tue 14 @ Detroit 6:30 PM
Wed 15 @ Toronto 6:00 PM
Sat 18 @ L.A. Clippers 2:30 PM
Mon 20 @ Utah 8:00 PM
Tue 21 @ Portland 9:00 PM
Thu 23 @ Denver 8:00 PM
Fortunately, the Rodeo Road Trip could be worse. The first four games are played over nine nights, which will hopefully allow San Antonio to get off on the right foot. With a back-to-back in Toronto on Feb. 15, Pop could elect to just send the Big Three ahead to Los Angeles to get some added rest.
The Feb. 21 game in Portland screams surrender. It's a back-to-back that requires quite a bit of extra travel. Especially with the All-Star Weekend around the corner, Pop will be tempted to send the Big Three from Salt Lake City to Denver and skip that Portland game.
Wed 29 vs Bulls 8:00 PM
Fri 02 vs Bobcats 7:30 PM
Sun 04 vs Nuggets 8:30 PM
Wed 07 vs Knicks 7:30 PM
Fri 09 vs L.A. Clippers 7:30 PM
Mon 12 vs Wizards 7:30 PM
Wed 14 vs Magic 7:30 PM
Fri 16 @ Oklahoma City 8:30 PM
Sat 17 @ Dallas 8:00 PM
Wed 21 vs Timberwolves 7:30 PM
Fri 23 vs Mavericks 7:30 PM
Sat 24 @ New Orleans 7:00 PM
Sun 25 vs 76ers 6:00 PM
Coming out of the All-Star break, the Spurs have a great opportunity to rest a bit and rack up some Ws. This stretch starts with seven straight home games -- none of which are back-to-backs.
To maximize the rest, it makes sense to skip either the Thunder game on Mar. 16 or the Mavs game on Mar. 17. Although, considering that this two-game road trip is surrounded by home games, Pop may opt to just play both.
The first back-to-back-to-back occurs late in March. With it comes the most obvious surrender game of the entire season. By surrendering Feb. 24 against the Hornets, Duncan, Ginobili and Parker will get even more time to spend at home. I can't imagine any scenario in which the Big Three takes that trip to New Orleans.
Tue 27 @ Phoenix 9:00 PM
Wed 28 @ Sacramento 9:00 PM
Sat 31 vs Pacers 7:30 PM
Tue 03 @ Cleveland 6:00 PM
Wed 04 @ Boston 6:30 PM
By this point in the schedule, the level of surrendering will depend on the current situation the Spurs find themselves in. If they are comfortably in the playoff picture (or, basketball gods forbid, the Big Three is already physically breaking down), they can be more aggressive with games in which they surrender.
If surrenders are needed, Mar. 28 against the Kings and Apr. 4 against the Celtics stand out as possibilities in this stretch.
Fri 06 vs Hornets 7:30 PM
Sun 08 vs Jazz 6:00 PM
Mon 09 @ Utah 8:00 PM
Wed 11 vs L.A. Lakers 7:30 PM
Thu 12 vs Grizzlies 7:30 PM
Sat 14 vs Suns 8:00 PM
This is another break in the schedule that will hopefully allow the Spurs to catch their breath while also grabbing victories. By skipping the Apr. 9 trip to Utah, this could turn out to be essentially a five-game homestand.
Mon 16 @ Golden State 9:30 PM
Tue 17 @ L.A. Lakers 9:30 PM
Wed 18 @ Sacramento 9:00 PM
Fri 20 vs L.A. Lakers 8:30 PM
Sun 22 vs Cavaliers 6:00 PM
Mon 23 vs Trail Blazers 7:30 PM
Wed 25 @ Phoenix 9:30 PM
Thu 26 @ Golden State 9:30 PM
To closeout the season, the Spurs have a run that begins with another back-to-back-to-back. Again, it makes the most sense to skip the middle game -- which in this case is Apr. 17 against the Lakers. The Big Three can go from Oakland to Sacramento and hope that the rest of the team can pull out a miracle in Staples Center.
The Spurs then head home for their last three games of the regular season in the AT&T Center. With four games in the last five nights of the season, it'll be interesting to see how hard Pop pushes. Again, it will likely depend on the situation. If at all possible, I expect Pop to surrender Apr. 25 against the Suns or Apr. 26 against the Warriors. In fact, unless the playoffs are on the line, I wouldn't be surprised if Pop ends up surrendering both of those last two games.
So by my estimation, the Spurs have five games this season that they will surrender and another 13 games Pop will be tempted to surrender. I think it will take a record of at approximately 40-26 to safely be in the Western Conference playoffs. That means if the Spurs surrender eight games (and lose each time), they will need a .690 winning percentage (which equates to 57 wins in an 82-game season) the rest of the way to safely make the postseason. Not easy ... but definitely possible if the team stays reasonably healthy.
It's undeniable that surrendering games is a risky tactic; one ill-timed injury could have the Spurs missing the playoffs for the first time in the Tim Duncan Era. But despite the risk, I truly believe strategically selecting nights to surrender is the only way to give this team a chance to win a championship.
I don't think pop will give up on more than 3 or 4 games except if the team has a really great record
The New Orleans games in the middle of the first B2B2B is the most obvious. Too bad it was also one of the easiest game of the season
I'm still trying to fit pieces together:
1) Pop is a coach that is very cautious when it comes to limit minutes.
2) Duncan is the player that will benefit the most from not playing some games.
3) Spurs only have 4 bigmen under contract.
I definitively don't get what Spurs staff is trying to do this year.
Exactly. How are we going to sit Duncan with only 3 other "big men" on the team.
small ball - it's not like the Spurs aren't going to be playing mostly small at large parts of the game anyways. Bonner is 6'10", but plays small and so does Blair at times. How much of an downgrade is it to run Jefferson or Leonard at the 4 instead of Bonner or Blair?
You gotta believe they have some other options for bigs that they are waiting on. (Also, Pop may be planning to ride Splitter like a borrowed mule.)
So do you give them an actual shot to win it all if they follow this strategy?
A fifth bigman has to be arriving sometime soon -- unless the franchise has officially lost each and every last marble. Even a Joel Przybilla type would help things start making more sense.
Looking at the schedule, the Spurs have about two weeks to add that big before we need to look at committing RC and Pop to the nearest facility.
Believe.
Even if the Spurs get proper rest during the regular season, I still wouldn't give them much more than a 5% chance to win a championship. But the alternative of going all out in the regular season would leave the Spurs with no hope.
Even without the compact schedule their shot of winning it all is slim. I think the idea is to use their corporate knowledge of how they build up torwards the playoffse in regular years , to try to simulate that as much as possible in a shorten season. ESPN mentioned that due to the compact season some teams have a maximum of 10 practices sessions within the regular season, meaning you're really not going to get better through practice, The solution then is to use these surrendered games (8-10 games) as practice. This is the only way to make this season as normal as possible to build for the playoffs
I doubt Spurs and Pop having that kind of strategy with some games ticked in advance as "surrender" games. IMO, Pop approach of this issue will be on a day to day and on a player by player basis.
Thanks for the writeup.
Just as an addendum, Gary Neal will likely be unavailable until Jan 10-17... Which I think will be a factor for resting Manu until then.
I also expectto sit out Bonner some games... I truly believe he thinks he's part of the current "must have" core players.
I also expect
Tbh, I don't understand the hubbub. This was an obvious surrender game before the season even started.
Its a shame you don't win something for calling it Tim.
Damn, LJ. I thought I was ahead of the curve calling for it last night. And you called it at the beginning of the season?
That doesn't mean it was the right decision.
A surrender game shouldn't include TP. You don't piss away game in a jam packed western conference where seeding is everything. If you want to save Duncan for the season, don't play him 38 minutes. The last he surrendered a game against the nuggets several years back, Duncan was garbage the rest of the season. You don't see Kobe taking days off and you would think Phil Jackson knew a thing or two about coaching.
I still agree with that, tbh.
Seeding is clearly not everything...remember last season?
Also if I would critizise Phil Jackson for one thing it is precisely that he doesn't rest his star players enough, especially now when they are older. I'm so happy Duncan and Parker don't get Kobe's PT.
The marbles have been lost for a while.
Where's that big?
Only played 6 minutes last night, good call.I also expect
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