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I see Gerald Wallace potential more so than Bowen.
Great writeup btw
After the Rockets game, Pop evoked the name of Bruce Bowen to describe the play of Kawhi Leonard.
Here are some thoughts on the comparison of Leonard to Bowen:
-As it stands right now, Leonard's defensive ability isn't in the same stratosphere as Bowen at his best (or Bowen at his worst, for that matter). And that's not a knock on Leonard. He's a 20-year-old who didn't have summer league or a training camp. In fact, he's already playing better defense than I thought he would in his rookie season.
At this point, Leonard has two distinct modes: he's even locked in to his opponent and neglecting most of his team defense responsibilities or he's flying around the court trying to cause havoc. Eventually he'll find the middle ground. That's something you can only learn through experience gained by playing and learning tendencies of each player in the league.
-Being an elite perimeter defender is extremely rare for a young player. Bowen was 30 years old when he joined the Spurs and it still took him a couple years to reach his peak performance on defense. The best perimeter defender in the game today is Tony Allen and he's 30. I can't think of a 20-year-old player off the top of my head who came into the league and received minutes mostly due to perimeter defense.
-Some scouts questioned whether Leonard was able to play small forward -- they said he was actually going to be forced to play power forward. Thankfully, those scouts were wrong. Leonard is definitely capable of playing small forward on both ends. In fact, he's starting at shooting guard right now. Going forward, if Leonard can turn into a legit shooting guard, that would be scary good because he could physically overwhelm just about every SG in the league due to his combination of bulk, size and length.
-So far, we've seen Leonard defend small forwards and shooting guards. Can he defend point guards? Hopefully Pop gives him a shot because if he can, that shoots his value up another notch. I'm not sure he has the quickness but it's worth a try. Another thing to try is to see if Leonard can handle true power forwards. We've seen him on smaller power forwards like Lamar Odom but if Leonard can legitimately defend point guards through power forwards, that alone would be enough to guarantee him a long, successful NBA career.
-Speaking of Leonard's quickness and athleticism, that may be the one question mark when it comes to his ability to become an elite defender. Most of the scouting reports on Leonard said he was a great athlete. In reality, however, he's deceptively not that athletic for an NBA player with his build. He doesn't jump especially well. He's not that fast. His rebounding and defensive play thus far has relied on lightning fast reflexes, great hands and good timing. But will that be enough? Back when Bowen was young, he could dunk from the free throw line and he was always fast. You don't need to be Carl Lewis to be a great defender but most recent examples of elite perimeter defenders have been A athletes. Leonard, from everything I've seen, is closer to a B athlete.
-Chances are, Leonard won't become as good as Bowen was defensively. Bowen was one of the best perimeter defenders to ever play the game, so that's not really a knock on Leonard. But Leonard already rebounds about twice as well as Bowen ever did and he has tools to become an average to above average offensive player. Bowen was always markedly below average by any measure. Thus, even if Leonard doesn't reach Bowen's level defensively, he could still reach the status of championship quality starter by other means.
-If Pop is going to fully commit to Leonard being the next Bowen, Pop needs to start him from here on out. As we saw in the Bucks game, bringing your ace perimeter defender off the bench doesn't work because once an NBA player gets hot, it's almost impossible to cool him off (See: Jackson, Stephen). Once Manu Ginobili returns, the right adjustment is to move Richard Jefferson to the bench. Jefferson's skillset (shooting and running the floor, mostly) works as well or even better off the bench since opposing teams won't be able to key on him as easily. Let's see if Pop is all talk or he's willing to put his rotation where is mouth is.
-One reason why Pop loves Leonard so much so early is that Leonard doesn't foul. At all. Pop hates nothing more than useless fouls out on the perimeter. Pop's two tenets to perimeter defending: Don't foul and don't let your man drive middle. Leonard is averaging 1.6 fouls per 36 minutes. Bowen rarely fouled and his lowest foul rate was 2.3 fouls per 36 minutes. In NBA history, only one rookie swingman fouled at a lower rate than Leonard's current rate: Peja Stojakovic -- and he wasn't exactly the Sacramento's perimeter defensive stopper.
While such a microscopic foul rate is mostly good, it probably points to Leonard having room to grow in terms of being more physical. Bowen tiptoed the line between being physical and fouling. Leonard doesn't have to be as safe as he's currently playing.
-Another thing Leonard hardly does is turn the ball over. In 243 minutes, he has five turnovers for a TOV% of 5.8. To put that in perspective, Matt Bonner always leads the team in lowest TOV% and his lowest number as a Spur was 6.3 back in '08-09. Bonner's TOV% is low because all he usually does is catch-and-shoot. Leonard's number being low is extra impressive since he does a lot more than just stand around on the perimeter. Historically, no rookie has played 500 minutes and posted a TOV% that low -- at any position.
-Overall, it'll be interesting to see how it goes the rest of the season with Leonard. We saw Danny Green explode ... only to regress. Leonard surely will have a few bumps in the road but his short-term and long-term potential is exciting. Let's hope he keeps learning game by game and that Pop continues to bring him along at a rapid pace.
I see Gerald Wallace potential more so than Bowen.
Great writeup btw
I think I remember him getting stuck with Lowry after a switch a couple of times, and it not going too good. I wouldn't base too much on a few plays, though. Most of all, I'm just floored that Pop would mention him and Bruce together like that. I'm not sure I ever remember him doing that with any two players. And he is usually pretty cautious about banging the gong too loudly with new players. It's too early for me to try and compare Leonard's game to Bowen's. But the comment itself? Pretty big stuff, coming from Pop. I hope he's right.
I will say that I think a dozen other teams will be kicking themselves for passing on him, by the time this season is over.
Wow, excellent analysis. Truly well done Mr. Timvp.
Most interesting wrinkle for me:
A part of what made Bowen so great was his ability to deny PF's the ball as well as draw offensive fouls when they tried to get physical in response. Kawhi's hands are good enough, but are his feet?-So far, we've seen Leonard defend small forwards and shooting guards. Can he defend point guards? Hopefully Pop gives him a shot because if he can, that shoots his value up another notch. I'm not sure he has the quickness but it's worth a try. Another thing to try is to see if Leonard can handle true power forwards. We've seen him on smaller power forwards like Lamar Odom but if Leonard can legitimately defend point guards through power forwards, that alone would be enough to guarantee him a long, successful NBA career.
Would it not be enough to be a great defender at sg and sf?
Props to timvp being in great form
Great post! Eventhough I know Ill get it from every poster, Id like to say Im intrigued with how would a lineup of Tony Many Kawhi RJ Duncan would fare. Not permanently of course.
Nic Batum & Wesley Mattews
I think Pop just meant it was nice to have someone to rely on to guard the opposing teams best player night in and night out. Something we have been lacking since the departure of Bruce. I don't think Pop was comparing Leonards D to Bruces', but rather the type of player they are and their mentality on the court.
One doesn't call upon the name of Bruce Bowen lightly when making defensive comparisons. Particularly someone with as much first hand experience of players being Bowened as Pop.
Leonard has the potential to be a Gerald Wallace type player, an athletic defensive stopper who can grab rebounds and is good for 10-16 ppg.
Obviously his defense isn't anywhere near Bruce standard, but hardly any players are.
I don't recall Bowen early in his career but I wouldn't consider him a better athlete than Leonard and although athleticism is important, there are other essential tools one must possess to become a lockdown defender. It's not like Ron Artest is winning any dunk contests.
To be a great defender, one has to have good lateral quickness, strength and most important, intelligence. Leonard possesses all 3 in my opinion and he provides better rebounding and has very active hands, which will lead to a lot of steals and deflections. His man on man defense needs a lot of work and should get better with time especially under Pops tutelage.
On a side note, I have been very impressed with Green on that side of the ball as well. Both need to get considerable time on the court if we want to improve our over team defense. They are young so mistakes will definitely occur but in the long run, we will be better off.
Guck yeahI see Gerald Wallace potential more so than Bowen.
Great writeup btw
The more I thought about it, Kawhi and Bruce are different players, just like this Spurs squad is different than the one(s) Bruce played on. Trying to use Leonard exactly like Bowen might be a mistake, even if they were more alike athletically. For the last couple of seasons, the Spurs have given up way too many offensive boards, and the FG% on those putbacks has been about 80-90%. It doesn't help much to hold a scorer to 40%, if it means letting some big shoot 80% putbacks. We really NEED the extra rebounding from Leonard.
Bruce spent most of his time locked up on the perimeter. Even after his man passed the ball, he stayed locked up in case they tried to pass it back to his man. That doesn't allow for a lot of board-crashing.
I'm not sure Leonard is going to be keeping up with PG's - but with his build, I can see him potentially defending a lot of 4's. So there's potentially some versatility there, maybe just not the same as Bruce's. But those extra boards are worth A LOT to this particular squad. A lot of them are rebounds that we just wouldn't get. (Meaning he's not just picking up rebounds that one of our other players would have gotten anyway.) Anything that cuts down on the second chance points is big. They add up - but they're also demoralizing.
I kind of wish he hadn't compared him to Bruce. I like the role the kid is playing on this team, and I was honestly surprised at how good he looked out there as a starter. It would be nice to have a prime Bruce Bowen back. But let this kid work in with his own game, and make the best use of it.
Edit:
Ahhh ... one more thing. Leonard is going to figure into this offense a lot more than Bruce did. It's hard to do it all on both ends. I'm not sure Bruce could have kept up his defense the way he did, if he wasn't sitting in the corner waiting for the ball on the offensive end.
Unrealistic expectations can really ruin the perception of a player.
Last edited by GSH; 01-13-2012 at 04:29 PM.
Is this the same Gregg Popovich that defined Bogans, Keith, Spurs "centerpiece" after a couple of passable defensive performances?
He traded Hill for this kid, he'd better be more than average.
Props to GSH as well for having some spot on posts through the season so far.
Not too long ago you mentioned that you didn't see how he could become an average offensive player, what made you change your mind so quickly? (I haven't been able to see the last couple of games).
Wonderful writeup!
A couple of thoughts on this.
- I had no idea that Leonard's turnnover and foul rates were so low. That is extra impressive!
- I have noticed that Leonard is not as athletic as first advertised. It has been evident on a couple of his dribble drives to the hoop. While I was expecting a couple of soaring dunks, instead he either contorts his body or slithers his way in and executes an effective layup. No harm done. Style points aside, two points is still two points.
- Leonard is an even better rebounder than I thought. When playing with the starters, I've seen him get rebounds that normally Tim would get.
- While I certainly concur with the fact that playing Leonard at the 2 would be overwhelming for opposing 2-guards, but it would seem counterproductive to me for a couple of reasons. (a) he's not a good enough shooter - yet and (b) the SG position is perhaps the deepest position on the Spurs team. Playing Leonard there would make for even a bigger logjam - especially when Manu comes back.
- I totally agree with your take that Leonard will likely never become as stout of a defender as Bowen. He was indeed the gold standard of perimeter defenders. However with a little commitment, intelligence and hopefully some tips from the Rash himself, Leonard could conceivably get close.
- Something tells me that Leonard will remain steady and continue his upward surge. With Leonard on the rise, I'm also anxious to see if Pop elects to stick with him as a starter, going forward.
at Bonner's turnover rate and Peja's foul rate. Bonner camps at the 3-pt line and Peja was a traffic cone on the defensive end. lol
Excellent takes, my man!
He talked a little bit about Bruce
Will Leonard have to defer his "being more physical" on defense until he can leave enough of an imprint (with the officials) of being "clean" and not prone to fouling? In other words if he starts being more physical now, then likely he will be whistled for more fouls simply because rookies don't tend to get the benefit of the call. Whereas if he can go an entire year and cement the perception that he can defend without fouling then maybe, he can start getting away with being more physical starting next season...
In short... it's unlikely that Kawhi can end up with such an amazingly low foul rate AND increase his defending physicality BOTH during his rookie year...
edit: great post btw...
I'm always bugged by the fact that you cannot hear the reporter's question. I don't see why these guys refuse to speak into the mic, then throw it to the player for an answer. Jeesh!
He can't. And even if he could, why would you want him to? His physical tools are good enough to overwhelm a number of small forwards. And this organization hasn't had a small forward of the future since Elliott was in his salad days.Going forward, if Leonard can turn into a legit shooting guard, that would be scary good because he could physically overwhelm just about every SG in the league due to his combination of bulk, size and length.
In today's game, Odom is a true power forward. 6-10, 230 (and if you've seen him this season, you know that 230 listing is outdated). If he can play above average defense on him, then he should be able to against somewhat similar power forwards, such as Griffin, Stoudemire and Bosh. Love's bulk and Nowitzki's size may give him issues, but I wouldn't completely rule them out, either. The ones I can't see him being able to guard are the dominant low post types, that could overwhelm him either with their size, strength or both. That means Gasol, Randolph, Aldridge and to a lesser extent, Garnett and Boozer.Another thing to try is to see if Leonard can handle true power forwards. We've seen him on smaller power forwards like Lamar Odom but if Leonard can legitimately defend point guards through power forwards, that alone would be enough to guarantee him a long, successful NBA career.
Wrong. Battier, Artest, Prince and Bell are considered four of the best perimeter defenders of the past decade and not one was ever an A athlete. Going a bit further back, neither was Christie.Back when Bowen was young, he could dunk from the free throw line and he was always fast. You don't need to be Carl Lewis to be a great defender but most recent examples of elite perimeter defenders have been A athletes. Leonard, from everything I've seen, is closer to a B athlete.
You don't have to be an A athlete when you've got the length and hands of Leonard. He can play a step off most players and still contest their shot or bother their dribble, a la Prince.
This is definitely within' his grasp. I wouldn't be shocked if he's a borderline top ten small forward in three years.Thus, even if Leonard doesn't reach Bowen's level defensively, he could still reach the status of championship quality starter by other means.
He's not quite the athlete Wallace was/is, but he's clearly in the same mold. And Wallace is somewhere between the 5th-8th (at worst) best small forward in the league.
Between Blair, Leonard and to a lesser extent, Parker, that would leave the first unit with a serious lack of shooting/spacing. I'd be fine if, once (if?) healthy, Pop sticks with the same rotation he had going, where Leonard enters at the 7 or 6 minute mark. That way, they get the best of both worlds somewhat: strong shooting and perimeter defense from the small forward position, with both units.-If Pop is going to fully commit to Leonard being the next Bowen, Pop needs to start him from here on out. As we saw in the Bucks game, bringing your ace perimeter defender off the bench doesn't work because once an NBA player gets hot, it's almost impossible to cool him off (See: Jackson, Stephen). Once Manu Ginobili returns, the right adjustment is to move Richard Jefferson to the bench. Jefferson's skillset (shooting and running the floor, mostly) works as well or even better off the bench since opposing teams won't be able to key on him as easily. Let's see if Pop is all talk or he's willing to put his rotation where is mouth is.
In the absence of elite lateral quickness, this may be the best way for him to defend. Like Prince, he's long enough to play a step off and still contest.While such a microscopic foul rate is mostly good, it probably points to Leonard having room to grow in terms of being more physical. Bowen tiptoed the line between being physical and fouling. Leonard doesn't have to be as safe as he's currently playing.
It probably would ... unless he's a horrible offensive player. If he's good to great at defending three positions, then he'll survive in the NBA for a dozen years based on his defense alone.
Wes Matthews was 23 as a rookie ... but wasn't someone I thought of right away. Good thought
I thought about Batum but while Batum has been billed as a really good defender, advanced stats show he makes little to no impact on the defensive end. In fact, last season the stats show Batum as the Blazers worst defender. I don't think Batum is a bad defender but for whatever reason his defensive ability doesn't translate well on these Blazers.
Would Batum have developed differently if the Spurs drafted him as planned? Possibly ... although he does lack some lateral quickness for an ace defender. Offensively, though, he would have fit right away with the Spurs.
GSH and timvp with the very good lately !
this kind of stuff is the reason I joined and read ST a lot... I'm more than happy it is back really. This is raising the bar.
timvp, what do you think on Leonard's ability to go around screens? He seems to be a step late a lot of the times, and that when he gets scored on the most
Bowen wasn't an everyday NBA player until he was 29 .. so "early Bowen" predates his NBA days. That said, a while ago there was some French video posted of Bowen back when he played in Europe. In the video, Bowen looked like a James White! predecessor and much more athletic than Leonard is now.
Good question. What had me worried about Leonard is that in college he was horrible at finishing around the rim (I don't have the number on hand but it was something around 50%). I thought if he can't finish at the rim, can't shoot three-pointers and had an iffy in-between game, he'd be destined to be a below average NBA player on offense.
But as of late, Leonard has been great at finishing at the rim. For the season, he's shooting 75.9% at the basket. And while that is probably a bit high and will come down as the sample size increases, he looks like a legit finisher on the NBA level. Leonard's won't be a good offensive player if he struggles to score at the rim -- but thankfully that doesn't appear to be the case.
I'm not sure why his college percentage was so low. Though it happens sometimes, usually when a college player is trapped on a team that has bad guard play.
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