Is the GOP headed for a brokered convention?

[Nbadan]

Why the Republicans are going to have a brokered convention (From December 11)

Posting this under its original le as posted December 11th.

The Republicans are going all the way to the convention and here is why as I laid out on December 11, bold emphasis added to emphasis the nauseous "I told you so" quality of kicking and updating the thread.


Its been decades since there was an open convention but the Republicans are heading that way, heres why;

1) They changed from winner take all to proportional primaries.

2) With proportional primaries you have to get 51% of all of the delegates to get the nomination before the convention.

3) When you have more than 2 candidates it gets very hard to get 51%. If Romney, Gingrich and Paul all stay into the convention then it is very difficult for anyone to get 51%. In fact up till now no one in the GOP has reached 30% and 50% is 1,000 times more difficult than 30%. Moreover if some of the minor candidates stay in and take 6-9% of the delegates it will be even more difficult. In addition to everything else, these guys really hate each other and aren't going to give in.

Unlike the old days when you needed money and organization to stay in the race, now you can do it on the media and sell books while you do it. There is no incentive for a minor candidate to get out. In fact there is more financial incentive for them to stay in and build their brand for commercial purposes.

4) Romney isn't going to surge. He has a very low ceiling and if he is willing to try and wait it out he will go to the convention in first place.

5) Gingrich is not going to be the nominee. There is enough dirt on Gingrich to fill 3 landfills and he has enough party enemies that they will line up to tear him down. Here is another reason why the establishment won't let Gingrich win. If he becomes the nominee then after he loses he will use it to dominate the Republican brand for 4 years and they are not going to let him do that.

6) A brokered convention allows them to dust off one of their more respectable Governors (and Governors are usually the best candidates and usually elected President). They can take someone like Daniels, dust him off and get a completely new start at the Primary. All of the negatives from the primary debacle gone. Not only that it would cause a huge media sensation (remember Palin's coming out, she sucked all the oxygen out of the media for weeks). A reluctant Govenor yielding to the demands of the party gives them a true outsider to run against Washington, finally somebody running for President that doesn't even want it that much.

7) This scenario allows them to reset the campaign with a new beginning. It will allow them to bring out somebody that will help their real number one priority - taking back the Senate.

8) If the Republicans can take back the Senate they can let President Obama struggle rebuilding the economy and the country and sabotage at will. In 2016 they bring back Jeb Bush and put everything in play to try and take the Presidency and the House while they hold the Senate and prepare for another round of 'Bush' tax cuts.

I am reminded of an old joke by my father.

Outside of a state hospital for the insane a large flat bed truck carrying a house has come off the interstate and is trying to go under the underpass but is 6 inches to tall to make the clearance.

The driver of the truck and the drivers of the two escort cars stand by the side of the road and ponder this connundrum for hours. Phone calls are made, calculations are made but no solution is in sight. They can't go forward and they can't go back up the down ramp.

Three inmates are standing near the fence. Giggling and laughing the whole time. Finally the driver has had enough and goes over to the inmates and yells, "What the are you laughing about".

One of the inmates says "Well you have 50 inch tires on your flat bed why don't you just deflate the tires by 19% go under the underpass and reinflate the tires?"

"God that is brilliant. If you guys are so brilliant why are you in there?"

"We may be crazy but we are not stupid".

The chances that the Republicans are going to run one of these idiots for President - not high. The money and power of the Party may be crazy but they are not THAT stupid.