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Nice writeup, thanks for posting.
While there are a lot of bright spots to be found regarding a Spurs team that is 17-9 despite being without Manu Ginobili for all but four and a half games, I think the brightest spot of all is the huge strides Tiago Splitter has made on the offensive end. Early in the season, Splitter was a mess on offense; becoming even as effective as Fabricio Oberto wasn't a sure thing. Today? The sky is the limit for the big Brazilian.
Initially this season, Splitter was having trouble finishing in the paint area. He too often was using finesse moves and was routinely pushed out of position and getting his shots blocked. Even the basics, such as recognizing when he had a mismatch in the low block, were difficult for him.
However, nowadays he's a fantastic finisher who uses a combination of physicality and a good touch to score the vast majority of the time he calls his own number. He doesn't get blocked nearly as often and he's always looking to take advantage of mismatches. Whether it's a post-up opportunity on the low block or a reception following a pick-and-roll set, Splitter has basically been an automatic two points as of late.
The following graph illustrates how Splitter's scoring has exploded over the course of the season. The blue line is his season average for points per 40 minutes, while the red line is his points per 40 minutes in the previous ten games.
As you can see, there's been a consistent rise in his ability to score. Recently, his red line has been north of 20 points per 40 minutes. Just how elite is that? Here's the complete list of bigmen in the NBA who score that often:
Points Per 40 Minutes
LaMarcus Aldridge - 25.9
Kevin Love - 25.4
Blake Griffin - 23.0
Al Jefferson - 22.5
Dwight Howard - 22.0
Dirk Nowitzki - 21.7
Chris Bosh - 21.5
Amare Stoudemire - 21.2
Paul Millsap - 21.2
Ryan Anderson - 21.0
DeMarcus Cousins - 20.9
David Lee - 20.2
Luis Scola - 20.1
Tim Duncan - 20.1
On the season, Splitter is shooting 62.3% from the field. As you can see in the following graph, his shooting has been amazing after a relatively cold start to the season. Again, the blue line is his shooting percentage on the season, while the red line is his shooting percentage over the previous ten games.
Considering that only one player in the NBA is currently shooting better than 56.4% from the field, Splitter's field goal percentage is phenomenal.
Why is Splitter shooting so well? First of all, he knows his strengths. He's only taken 12 shots all season from outside of ten feet. Secondly, he's shooting a very solid 44.5% on shots between 3 and 9 feet from the basket; the league average from that range this season is 37.3%. And finally, Splitter rarely misses at the rim, shooting a sizzling 74.5% on shots within three feet of the hoop. Only two players in the NBA who shoot at least as often as Splitter does at the rim make a higher percentage of these shots: LeBron James (77.9%) and Andrew Bynum (75.8%).
Another strength for Splitter on the offensive end is his ability to get to the free throw line. His free throw rate, which is calculated by dividing field goal attempts by free throw attempts, of .48 is the best mark on the team and the 25th best in the entire NBA. And Splitter's .708 free throw percentage is impressive considering he shot .543 as a rookie last season.
Though most of Splitter's offensive stats are very encouraging, he does have one major weakness: turnovers. His turnover rate (the percentage of his possessions that end in a turnover) is a team-worst 19.76, which is the 33rd worst mark in the NBA. Over last season, while his assists are up 61.5% per minute, his turnovers are up 87.5% per minute.
Subjectively, a lot of Splitter's turnovers are acceptable because they are due to being too physical -- a positive trait in a bigman. However, he does tend to attempt questionable passes in traffic when he'd be better served looking to score himself. But then again, with as fast as Splitter is improving, he'll probably fix that sooner than later. And it's not like he's the first bigman to have an issue with turnovers. Both Tim Duncan and David Robinson had more turnovers than assists each year until their fourth seasons in the NBA.
We've established that Splitter is showing a lot of offensive promise. But does his presence on the court make it easier for the team to score? The answer to that question shows a fascinating amount of improvement.
In the first 16 games of the season, the Spurs were only averaging 94.8 points per 48 minutes when Splitter was on the court, which was by far the worst rate on the squad. But recently, he has turned that completely around. In that the last ten games, the Spurs are averaging 101.6 points per 48 minutes that Splitter is on the court and 89.4 points per 48 minutes that Splitter is on the bench. That first number is the highest mark on the team, while the second number is the lowest mark on the team. So, in other words, Splitter has gone from being the team's biggest offensive liability to being the team's most deadly offensive weapon.
If you've been watching Spurs games lately, it's clear to see why the offense is running so smoothly when Splitter is in the game. When Splitter posts up, he either scores or, if double-teamed, finds an open man. In pick-and-roll sets, it seems like he always finds open space as he's rolling to the bucket. Overall, the ball movement and player movement ramps up when Splitter is in the game. It also helps that opponents have been paying more attention to him in recent weeks because that has created open shots and clear driving lanes for teammates.
As the season progresses, I'm excited to see what the future holds for Splitter. It's difficult to imagine that his per-minute offensive production could get much better since he's already reached elite status in both scoring and accuracy. Plus his minutes per game will probably increase, which could alter the equation. But if can he continue to average 20 points per 40 minutes while shooting better than 60% from the floor, the Spurs would have a star player on their hands.
Nice writeup, thanks for posting.
It also seems like Splitter has been getting to the line more often (more respect from the officials perhaps along with his increased usage rate).
The good thing for Spurs' fans is that he's also knocking down those freebies at a better clip...
If only he'd get even more playing time...
Good read as always timvp
We should use Splitter more on offense. More Tiago and less Blair please Pop
most of his points come from scoring against the other teams starters and best big man, cause we all know DUNCAN NEVER takes the big assignments....
SPLITTEr=>duncan
I'm salivating at the thought of seeing "this version of Splitter" playing alongside a pick'n'roll genius like Manu... oooooh the potential...
What tandems take a higher priority though (in terms of usage rate)?
Splitter - Tony
Splitter - Duncan
Splitter - Manu
Blair - Manu
Blair - Duncan
u forgot splitter - ford
as for blair and whatever package you want to play with him...he should be on the bench with JA warming splitters seat...
Good stuff.
The numbers support what our eyes are telling us. They also raise some interesting choices for his utilization going forward.
His current success is enhanced by a significant portion of his minutes coming against opposition reserves and not having to share space in the lane with his teammates.
Moving him to a starting line-up that includes the Big 3 will impact both of those current advantages in a negative way. The second unit will certainly miss his production and his defense.
We all want to see what a Tim/Tiago tandem will look like given extended minutes, but I don't see it as a slam dunk that overall team performance improves with that change. At least in the short and medium term.
to Blair's credit... he was highly effective when paired with Manu... look at advanced metrics for the season and you'll see that Blair has been more effective than Richard Jefferson, Matt Bonner, Danny Green, or even fan-favorite Kawhi Leonard. You don't 'sit and glue' that type of production to the bench, without at least trying to tap into it and ignite a resurgence with your best possible activator (i.e. Manu)...
http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2012.html
timmay is a fkn pussy if he cant play with the splitter
he had no problems playin alongside rasho the goat, free nazr, oberto, elson, dice....its not like splitter is limited where duncan likes to operate
Uhh, thanks for the input...
Yeah... that's the dilemma of trying to play the best offensive players all at the same time (and why I get slightly annoyed everytime someone here insists on playing them all together "as much as possible")... "there's only one rock to go around"... I'd rather spread the offensive load between the starters and the bench to ensure that Duncan, Manu, Parker and Splitter all have sufficient touches to remain efficient, and content (they're probably the only ones that should have their numbers frequently called)...
For defensive purposes in crunch time I could see a Duncan - Splitter tandem being used (which is really the only reason why those two should probably be used together more often - to build that chemistry)... Offensively however, they do seem to slightly diminish the effectiveness of the other...
All that is left is for Pop to get his head out of ass and realize it, or if he does to pull the trigger and play him at least 25 mins a game. Bite some loses and have Tim and Splitter get comfortable with each other. Until this happens we won't have a chance come playoff time.
i told you that you cannot get at a baby hook if you have the dudes shoulder ramming into your chest on the move but you wouldn't believe me.
i think tim doesnt know who is the superior player is.....
Is there something I'm missing? I don't really follow what the graphs are trying to show me, what are the axes representing?
Pop is crazy. He said last summer Splitter was the linchpin for the team's success. Splitter has shown that ability this season but he continues to limit his minutes. Does he not want the team to succeed?
Seriously, Splitter's offensive and defensive ability and smarts give the team a dimension it hasn't had in a while. Yet Pop continues to believe more in Bonner/Blair. Splitter should be eating any minutes outside of Duncan and then Bonner/Blair getting any scraps that are left. If the team needs to get another veteran big to make it happen then they need to do it. Yet wasting his talent because of the need to avoid Bonner/Blair is ridiculous. Pop had no problem playing Blair/Bonner together at the end of last season despite everyone's objections.
Good point.
Though, obviously, I think it's worth finding out due to the long term potential. But yeah, in the short term, more Duncan and Splitter together would hurt more than help.
Out of curiosity, which of the advanced metrics are you using to judge Blair in that link?
So if you had the big 3 in Miami you would make sure one of them came of the bench to keep the team balanced? The bench doesn't have to be as good as the other team's starting lineup. Just good enough to keep pace with the other team's bench. That's why teams start their best players.
the problem is he continues to play his worst players hoping they get out of a funk, but the reality is how many opportunities do you continue to give at the expense of the team winning???
x-axis in both graphs is time expressed in units of games played
y-axis is defined in the text
Also worth finding out even if they don't move Tiago to the starting line-up. A line-up featuring the Big 3 and Tiago should be a viable, practiced option to use down the stretch of critical games.
Definitely can understand your frustration with the all offense players starting at the same time. Whats encouraging imo, is, unlike last year, Pop has some defensive pieces to work with in this year in Splitter, Leonard, and, to a lesser extent, Green.
I'll make an argument for Splitter starting based on the stats. Splitter's high freethrow rate means he will help to get the Spurs in the bonus early and draw fouls on the opposing team's starters. The guys in the staring lineup especially Ginobili can take advantage of that. Teams play differently when they start to pick up fouls because they don't want another. This ability is wasted on bench players. His high field goal percentage will benefit from the better playmakers in the starting lineup. His turnovers will decrease because he has better passing options.
I think that's a big part of why he's attacking the basket more frequently. IIRC he said that in an interview.
It also seems like Splitter has been getting to the line more often (more respect from the officials perhaps along with his increased usage rate).
The good thing for Spurs' fans is that he's also knocking down those freebies at a better clip...
If only he'd get even more playing time...
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