The last time I took a close look at Tony Parker's production, I started the infamous thread "What Ails Tony Parker?". Since then, Parker has done a wonderful job of making me look stupid. He went from a player who flamed out in last year's playoffs and did little to begin this season to an All-Star in the stacked Western Conference.
At the time of the previous thread, Parker was averaging 13.4 points and 7.1 assists in 29.6 minutes per game, while shooting 39.8% from the field. In the next 18 games -- the games that propelled him onto the All-Star team -- Parker averaged 21.6 points and 7.9 assists in 36.2 minutes on 47.8% shooting.
What did Parker do differently during those 18 games? Subjectively, I thought he simply got back to playing how he did in previous All-Star campaigns. However, a closer look at the stats illustrate that Parker didn't simply turn back the clock. Instead, he reinvented himself.
First, let's take a look at Parker's shot distribution over the last three seasons:
In 2008-09, Parker had the best season of his career, while Parker's 2009-10 campaign was filled with numerous injuries that led to one of the worst seasons of his career. However, as you can see in the graphs, Parker's shot selection those two seasons were virtually identical. The difference was he shot less often and for a lower percentage in '09-10.
Last season, Parker became more interior-oriented than ever. More than 60% of his shots were within nine feet of the basket. Only about 30% of his shots were from further than 15 feet, which was down from nearly 40% the previous two seasons.
Next, let's take a look at his shot distribution from back when he was struggling during the first nine games this season:
Compared to the previous three seasons, Parker was shooting near the basket a lot less. He was shooting only about 43% of his shots within 9 feet, which was quite a change because typically Parker shoots at least half of his shots in that range. He relied on his jumper more, although the biggest difference was the increase in shots from 10-15 feet from the basket. He was shooting nearly 20% of his shots from that range, while previous seasons saw him shoot less than 9% from those spots on the floor.
In the next 18 games, before looking at the numbers I thought Parker got back to his proven formula and thus his success. But in actuality, that's not really what happened, as you can see in this graph:
Parker shot even less at the rim (28.5% of his attempts) and cut back on his shots from 10-15 feet. He kept shooting his outside jumpers from 15-23 feet at approximately the same rate, while shooting threes more than twice as often. However, the biggest change is he relied on his teardrop shots from 3-9 feet more than ever.
Comparing this 18-game stretch to the previous three seasons shows quite a bit of change in Parker's shot selection. He no longer depends on getting all the way to the rim. Instead, he's shooting a lot more from 3-15 from the basket.
Parker was able to make this shot selection a success mostly due a field goal percentage of 71.8% at the rim, which was quite a jump from the 45.9% he shot at the rim during the first nine games of the season. Parker also hit 45.8% of his shots from 3-9 feet and 45.8% of his shots from 10-15 feet. Both of those percentages were also improvements from the first nine games of the season: 33.3% and 38.1%, respectively.
Parker's revival didn't have anything to do with his outside jumper. In the first nine games, he hit 40% of his shots from 15-23 feet. In his next 18 games, that percentage dropped to 34.9%.
Why has Parker's shot distribution changed so drastically? There are a couple of possible reasons. With Manu Ginobili sidelined and Tim Duncan playing less minutes, opponents were free to pay a lot more attention to Parker. That alone could account for Parker getting all the way to the rim less often.
The other main possibility is that Parker made an adjustment necessitated by a drop in quickness and/or athleticism. There will come a point when Parker will need to make such an adjustment and his long-term value will depend largely on how well he transitions to the second phase of his career. If Parker successfully made the needed adjustments right before our eyes and was able to play well enough to make the All-Star team, that would bode well for the future.
That said, subjective observations lead me to believe that the cause is the former and not the latter. Parker looked really good physically over the stretch of games. However, now that Ginobili is back, we'll be able to track his attempts and see if Parker's previous shot distribution returns or if Parker has indeed entered the second phase and this reinvention is permanent.
Fascinating!
Thanks.
I wonder if Parker has emerged as a scorer now because he successfully established himself as more of a playmaker, first. I don't remember TP getting so many assists, especially with newer players, early in the season.
Whatever the reasons, he is playing some mighty fine basketball.
Great research and write up. I wonder how long before another blog or newspaper piggybacks on your work. Ha.
LJ.. Can't express how much I appreciate reading your threads after all these years..
bravo..
Great write up. Your professionalism, skill and data collection is bar none one of the best.
Regarding eating crow...After a while you get used to the taste like I have on many occasions.
Only the best know how to digest. It's all part of the continued education process.
I'd wonder if taking longer shots/reducing rim attempts is in some way related to a need for him to be playing heavy minutes, with TJ Ford out. Looking at Game logs of minutes played, his minutes have gone from being quite low and managed with Ford healthy, to extensive minutes since(with basically 3 games of low minutes: Miami's 3 point explosion, The Dallas Bench game and the NJ game.)
It will be interesting to see what happens when Ford gets back, the ratio of rim shots could revert towards career norms, which would make Parker more efficient. Not sure if taking fewer shots at the rim is purely due to aging, or is partly a more precautious approach given the season and injury to backup. It's probably a factor, though I wouldn't say it's the only 1.
Terrific write-up Timvp.
Seems like the biggest difference is that the shots are going in. That's the difference between going one on five and distributing the ball so people have to worry that you're going to pass.
Thanks, Timvp.
It's nice to confirm with numbers the perception of the increase in the use of Parker's teardrop.
Great write up, Timvp. I enjoy seeing the breakdown of the numbers and how you are answering a question that I am sure a lot of us were asking.
Tony's tear drop has looked good this year and now the rest of the team seems to be using it (Neal, Blair, even Bonner). I have noticed that more and more announcers are calling it Tony Parker's patented Tear Drop. I wonder if it will become legendary like Gervin's finger roll or Duncan's bank shot.
Nice analysis. I just hope TP isn't used up before he hits 30.
After rereading and studying the graphs with more intent...I find it amazing that Tony takes so many shots from the "green" area 15-23 feet when it's been proven that's the least proficient jump shot selection for a player to make.
What are his percentages from that distance?
Thanks a lot for that timvp.
With my naked eye I felt like Tony had been taking more teardrop type shots in the key. Once again with the naked eye he has been making a ridiculous amount of them as well, to the point where I'm really surprised when he misses. He also seems to have increased his use of pivoting in the keyway and short step back 8 foot jumpers. His offensive game is just so smooth at the moment.
Surprisingly, given the shots he is taking, he has also seen a rise in FT attempts per game. Not really sure why that is. Making being more aggressive when teams are in the penalty late in quarters due to having more scoring responsibilities with Manu out.
parker is going to be making threes next year at a good %
It keeps defenses honest though, and that's why it important that he keeps shooting it. A 22 foot jump shot anywhere but the corner is the worst shot in the game to take percentage-wise, but as long as you're mixing it in with other aspects of your game, it loosens up the defense slightly, and for a guy like Tony, he just needs an inch of daylight to get to the rim.
The midrange jump shot has gotten a bad rap for being inefficient but like you said it keeps the defense honest. 3's can be less efficient if they lead to fastbreaks for the other team.
Nice write up, but did you have to use the freaking pie charts?
Thanks for the writeup, LJ.
I think the Spurs should try again to dump RJ's contract by packaging him with Tony. Tony's trade value is probably not going to get much higher than now...
No way. As constructed, the Spurs have a great shot at coming out of the West. After this season, we'll just amnesty RJ and pick up a backup SF to Kawhi in free agency. Then we get to keep Tony.Thanks for the writeup, LJ.
I think the Spurs should try again to dump RJ's contract by packaging him with Tony. Tony's trade value is probably not going to get much higher than now...
I'd be willing to trade Tony at the right price, but packaging him with RJ just means we don't get a great player in return.
That's all good, except he was already averaging a career high in assists in the first 9 games...
I'm still mesmerized by the large colorful pie charts.
Great point.
Many think that TP relies on quickness and will suddenly hit a wall.
I think TP is just a natural born basketball player who adjusts to whatever physical limitations arise without even realizing it. I don't see TP reaching some epiphany and going back to the lab to retool his game -- more like it just happens intuitively and then he says, "What's for lunch?"
Pretty soon he'll be hobbling around like Cousy, scoring the whole way. I'm just glad he's on our side.
Good points. It'll be interesting to see how the returns of Ginobili and Ford will impact his game.
Graph 1: 44.6%
Graph 2: 36.5%
Graph 3: 36.4%
Graph 4: 40.0%
Graph 5: 34.9%
So the stretch that earned him an All-Star bid was accomplished without much help from his jumper.
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