Player Pairs - Feb. 17, 2012

[timvp]

Previously, we looked at the bigman combinations. Today, I present the same stats but for the entire team.

IMO, this is the best form of plus/minus stats. It puts everything into context and allows you to make reasonably sound decisions. 82games.com used to post these numbers ... until Mark Cuban hired the guy who runs the site and then they suddenly disappeared.

Let me know if you have any questions regarding the format. It's pretty straight forward -- with the color coding based on the columns. Green means that the player in the column improved the number for the player in the row. Basically, the more green in a player's column, the better.




Point Differential Per 100 Possessions




Points Scored Per 100 Possessions





Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions






Observations:

-Manu Ginobili is an offensive wizard; those are some amazingly good numbers across the board. On defense, his numbers ain't half bad, either. Ginobili and Danny Green is definitely a combination Pop should consider playing a lot in the coming weeks.

-Speaking of Green, while his overall plus/minus isn't the best on the team, his player pairs numbers are the most impressive, IMO. He was really, really close to making each member of the team better on both offense and defense. That's something only superstars accomplish. While this will likely change once the sample size increases, it does validate Green's surprisingly good play so far this season.

-These numbers indicate that Tim Duncan is still far and away the best defender on the team. And, subjectively, I agree. However, the offensive numbers say he's trying to do too much. It can't be a coincidence that both Ginobili and Tony Parker struggle to score the most when paired with Duncan and that they both dominate when Duncan is on the bench. Duncan really needs to take more of a complementary role on offense. And now that Ginobili has returned, hopefully he'll be comfortable doing so.

-Parker's numbers are strong across the board. On defense, as long as he's not paired with Gary Neal, he's damn effective. Offensively, he does an especially good job when paired with the bench players.

-Richard Jefferson is a wreck on offense. He literally makes everyone on the team worse on that end of the court. While a lot of other players get blamed for bogging down the offense, these numbers say that no one is as responsible as RJ. The little value Jefferson retains is by being above average on defense -- but if you watched him play lately, you probably are with me in doubting that his D will hold up for too much longer. He's getting worse and worse on that end and has looked especially slow in the last handful of games. And if he slips much further on D, he'll become a total liability. As it stands, it's getting really difficult to justify him playing any minutes.

-At first glance, Kawhi Leonard's numbers look horrible due to all the red. But there is one shining beacon of hope: Leonard's numbers when paired with Ginobili. The Spurs have been great on both ends with Leonard and Ginobili on the court. Going forward, let's hope Pop plays Leonard with Ginobili as much as possible. Logically, it makes sense that Ginobili would make Leonard a lot better, so it's exciting that the numbers back that up.

-Looking at DeJuan Blair's differential, it appears as if he's a major problem. But, upon inspection, you can actually fit him in without causing much damage. When he's playing with one of the Big 3, he's not half bad. As long as you keep him away from ever playing with Bonner or Neal, Blair won't kill you.

-Tiago Splitter's numbers are mostly very strong. Unfortunately, the one weakness is pretty major: to date, he simply can't co-exist with Duncan. The offense goes down the drain and the defense isn't close to compensating. Let's hope that improves as the season goes along. These numbers also suggest that Splitter is best when surrounded by shooters, which makes sense for a player who relies on pick-and-roll sets and post-ups.

-When Bonner isn't paired with Blair, it's difficult to find fault in any of this numbers. Although, his defensive numbers when paired with Parker or Ginobili are probably sub par due to him not being able to protect the rim.

-Offensively, Neal is nearly in the Ginobili stratosphere when he's not playing next to a point guard other than Parker. Defensively, though, he has a lot of work to do. Thankfully, it appears as if he's been better on that end as of late.

-The sample size needs some expanding but James Anderson isn't a total bust on paper. Other than his odd inability to thrive thus far when paired with Ginobili, his numbers are pretty impressive.

-TJ Ford was off to a productive start. His numbers when playing next to Parker or Ginobili are jaw-dropping. That said, Neal not especially flourishing next to Splitter is a little bit concerning since the Spurs are relying on Splitter so much right now. Once Ford returns, let's hope he increases his cohesiveness with Splitter.

-Well, at least Cory Joseph's numbers make Leonard's numbers look good in comparison. Joseph has been bad offensively but has been absolutely horrible defensively. If not for Duncan helping his defensive numbers, Joseph would be on a historically bad pace.

[Cane]

Looks like a test for the color blind

Good stuff but its a shame that key players like Manu and Ford have been injured, it'll be interesting to see how things change once they get 100%.

RJ's offense has become one dimensional, even the rookie Leonard will battle in the paint for easy buckets, not so much for RJ. Then again, he doesn't have that much room to operate in the paint with Blair, TD, Leonard, and Parker wanting to take up space there. RJ is worthy of hate but he needs more plays if he wants to be utilized more, maybe having more mins with RJ and Manu together will make things better for the team

[Darkwaters]

This sounds like another commercial for Ginobili and Leonard starting together. Tape a sound bite and mail it to Pop - maybe he'll get the message.

[silverblackfan]

IMO, this is the best form of plus/minus stats. It puts everything into context and allows you to make reasonably sound decisions. 82games.com used to post these numbers ... until Mark Cuban hired the guy who runs the site and then they suddenly disappeared.

Great stats. I love how you continue to breakdown aspects of the way the Spurs play the game. I could really get used to these... Hey, wait a minute!

[Drewlius]

Solid post. Obv knew the Jefferson situation was bad, but this puts it in a whole new light.

[Darkwaters]

We should probably take the Ginobili stats with a bit of a grain of salt. Hes only played 8 games this season so we're talking about a fairly small sample size (not sure of the total minutes). Still, despite that, you have to like what you see.

[jestersmash]

I'm curious to see what people have to say about the Duncan-Splitter combination. Everyone keeps hounding Pop not only about Splitter's lack of playing time - but Splitter's lack of playing time next to Duncan.

[jestersmash]

Duncan-Blair/Splitter-Blair is terrible. I think we all probably expected this given our reduced expectations about Blair.

But Duncan-Bonner and Splitter-Bonner both boast higher point differentials per 100 possessions than Duncan-Splitter.

[Solid D]

Nice, timvp! The +52.74 for TJ Ford and TP is sick. Of course, we knew that pairing was effective but to see that number makes me wonder how much we'll see the small backcourt once TJ gets healthy again. Pop haters, get ready to rant if we don't see it. Bonner haters, don't look at the numbers.

[spursfaninla]

LOVE the embracing of advanced stats. Looks like tiago is the future to me. I am hopeful about the impact manu will have, but I think the stats for him are pre-team takeoff, so to speak. So I want to see more recent numbers with manu before we know his current impact. I think the only reason we don't dump rj now is the sfs on the team are inconsistent rookies. He should be gone next year if Leonard and green continue to develop.

This confirms manu should be the pg for the second unit to me.

[PDXSpursFan]

Maybe these are the numbers that Pop is seeing. It certainty justifies the PT Bonner is getting and not playing Duncan and Splitter together.

[ElNono]

Thanks LJ, I'll take a deeper look later. Just as a quick observation, I gather that the sample size for the Ginobili-Anderson pair is pretty small? I thought Anderson mostly backed Manu early in the season.

[angelbelow]

Nice, timvp! The +52.74 for TJ Ford and TP is sick. Of course, we knew that pairing was effective but to see that number makes me wonder how much we'll see the small backcourt once TJ gets healthy again. Pop haters, get ready to rant if we don't see it. Bonner haters, don't look at the numbers.

Haha, I thought that +52.74 was a mistake or something. Crazy number but I don't recall those two playing together much so probably just an anomaly.

[Nathan89]

I'm curious to see what people have to say about the Duncan-Splitter combination. Everyone keeps hounding Pop not only about Splitter's lack of playing time - but Splitter's lack of playing time next to Duncan.

They need to play more together to get better playing together.

[Nathan89]

-These numbers indicate that Tim Duncan is still far and away the best defender on the team. And, subjectively, I agree. However, the offensive numbers say he's trying to do too much. It can't be a coincidence that both Ginobili and Tony Parker struggle to score the most when paired with Duncan and that they both dominate when Duncan is on the bench. Duncan really needs to take more of a complementary role on offense. And now that Ginobili has returned, hopefully he'll be comfortable doing so.

I would say this is the result of Tiago being better at setting screens. He's better because he's quicker. His quickness allows him to get to a screening position while having a little separation on his defender. This allows Tony and Manu to turn the corner with space to operate one-on-one with a big.

[Borosai]

It looks like Matty has diarrhea tonight.

[SpurNation]

Wonder if Pop would consider a Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, Blair, Duncan lineup to start with a Neal, Green, Jefferson, Splitter, Bonner sub pattern? When T.J. gets back, run with a Ford, Neal, Green, Splitter, (Bonner or Jefferson) sub pattern.

[Spursfanfromafar]

Great work. I had the raw data for this, but couldn't have done this any better.

* Danny Green's worth is so eminent in this reading.
* Manu Ginobili continues to be a super-winner even if these are limited data
* Reading Kawhi through this is a bit unsettling, because he has played so unevenly - some minutes as starter, very few sometimes on the bench, many in junk minutes and so on.
* Bonner nails the +/-s as usual.

[chazley]

Wait, so Pop knows what he's doing? WTF is this world coming to?!?!

[DrSteffo]

Very interesting. It confirms some obvious things like that RJ and Blair hurts the team while our best players including Splitter helps the team. I was a bit surprised to see the big difference between Green and Leonard since I like both. Seems Green should have even more minutes.

[TJastal]

Great work. I had the raw data for this, but couldn't have done this any better.

* Danny Green's worth is so eminent in this reading.
* Manu Ginobili continues to be a super-winner even if these are limited data
* Reading Kawhi through this is a bit unsettling, because he has played so unevenly - some minutes as starter, very few sometimes on the bench, many in junk minutes and so on.
* Bonner nails the +/-s as usual.

Thanks both of you for preparing/sharing this data. This is some of the most solid and useful data I've seen yet. Finally the +/- stat broken down. Now that we've seen this, it becomes obvious why Cuban paid that guy for his services. +/- by itself is really nebulous at best.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

What the have I been looking at?

So basically by every statistical metric available, Kawhi Leonard sucks A.H.????
Why the does he subjectively look like the greatest Spurs rookie in damn near a decade???

This doesn't make sense.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

It's just mind blowing to me

I was excited and encouraged about George Hill from day 1...he ended up helping us completely dismantle the Mavs in the first round his 2nd year....

I'm more excited about Kawhi than I've ever been, IMO, he has flashed more to me than Manu did as a rookie....yet the numbers point to otherwise, in fact, they point to Leonard sucking more ass than any Spurs rotation member this side of Richard ing Jefferson.

What freaking gives?


Is Pop playing Kawhi alot because he gave up so much to get him?

Is Pop playing Kawhi because he knows he's better than the numbers show?

Is Pop playing Kawhi because he finds the numbers acceptable?


wtf is going on, my entire spurs universe has started to implode with these recent stat posts

[TJastal]

Would also be nice to know how many minutes each player has played with the other somehow incorporated into each box.

Have no idea how it could be done, but that would nice knowing whether or not its a small sample size lending false credence if that is the case.

[SA210]

This reminds me of Moneyball