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awesome analysis!
For this version of Play Pairs, I did it a little differently. This time, I eliminated lineups that included Cory Joseph, Eric Dawson, Malcolm Thomas or Ike Diogu. I also eliminated any lineup that didn't play together for a total of at least two minutes all season combined. In theory, doing it this way eliminates most of the garbage minutes played so far this season.
And by popular demand, I also added a fourth chart that shows the minutes each pair played together.
Point Differential Per 100 Possessions
Points Scored Per 100 Possessions
Points Allowed Per 100 Possessions
Minutes Together
Green: More than 50% of playing time with that teammate
Yellow: 25-50% of playing time with that teammate
Red: Less than 25% of playing time with that teammate
Observations:
-Anyone wondering if the prime days of Duncan are behind us just has to look at those numbers
-While his sample sizes are still small, by all indications Manu Ginobili is an offensive wizard. Ginobili and Splitter have been ungodly together.
-Speaking of Tiago Splitter, his numbers are great. He's only being Manu Ginobili when it comes to offense and, of the players who have played major minutes, only behind Danny Green in defense.
-Danny Green's defense shines. Though he has trouble getting around screens, that apparently isn't as big of a deal as a lot of us think. Can't really argue about Green starting when looking at these numbers.
-Tony Parker's numbers are solid. Taking Joseph out of the equation hurt him color-wise but that will probably change once his current backups increase their sample size.
-TJ Ford looks like he deserves a chance to be the backup point guard. His defensive numbers are really good and the early returns on Ford paired with Ginobili are very positive. That said, there are two big concerns with Ford's numbers: So far he hasn't been a good fit next to Splitter or Neal -- and since those are arguably the two most important bench players, that's a pretty huge deal.
-Gary Neal's offense is great. His defense isn't. In other words, as expected.
-Matt Bonner helps the offense, although his defensive numbers are slipping a little bit. And Bonner next to Blair is, as we all know, a HORRIBLE idea.
-Blair kills the offense. Surprisingly though, he's making pretty big improvements on the defensive end.
-RJ also kills the offense. But he's basically a better version of Blair on both ends.
-Kawhi Leonard's numbers are still bad. The hope remains that if he's partnered with Ginobili, he could become a useful player (statistically speaking).
-James Anderson sucks with the starters but is pretty useful with the bench unit.
awesome analysis!
With Neal starting for Green tonight, that looks like bad news for anyone who is a fan of defense
Green and Ginobili
+58.71 Differential, 121.21 Points Scored per 100, 62.50 Points Allowed per 100. Maybe just due to the small sample size....would be interested to see how those trends develop.
Ford & Ginobili are quite an interesting combo as well.
Was just about to post that. I don't get what pop is thinking. Maybe pop loves Gino/Green together.
I'm with Dex. I can see why he would.
Maybe its cuz I haven't had my coffee yet, but I don't get green, yellow red.
Care to explain it again?
And I can't wrap my mind around Leonard's numbers being this bad.
Now we have a "minutes played together" as per several earlier requests? Dang, we are spoiled around here....
Nice work, timvp.
In a previous thread , you had the Duncan/Splitter pair scoring 97.81 and allowing 103.87 points per 100 possessions.
In this thread, they are scoring 102.21 and allowing 100.56 points per 100 possessions.
In both case, the sample seems to be the same (99 minutes).
I guess these differences are because numbers comes from different sources, which one seems to be the most accurate?
Bonner helping the offense has been a constant for 4 years.
Points scored per 100 possessions when Bonner is on the court compared to when he isn't:
08-09: +6.2
09-10: +5.2
10-11: +3.4
11-12: +6.5
The whole spacing the floor isn't as laughable as it seems...
We do?
The Feb 10th timvp post had
Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter
98.92 minutes
Todays Mar.7, 2012 post shows 99 minutes for Splittsville and Duncan.
That's for the third chart. What about first two?
Hmmm, good findNice work, timvp.
In a previous thread , you had the Duncan/Splitter pair scoring 97.81 and allowing 103.87 points per 100 possessions.
In this thread, they are scoring 102.21 and allowing 100.56 points per 100 possessions.
In both case, the sample seems to be the same (99 minutes).
I guess these differences are because numbers comes from different sources, which one seems to be the most accurate?
As I said in that opening, I took out minutes played with the scrubs and lineups that have played together less than two minutes. I'm sure that's the discrepancy but I'll check.
Spacing of the floor is laughable in the playoffs tbh when teams actually have time to game plan.
We need some fact checking police in this thread tbh. Slackers....
No, it's still quite important. Criticism of Bonner's playoff performance is warranted, but don't be an idiot.
We don't need more whining from butthurt haters like you.
Yeah, in total, Duncan and Splitter have played together for 111.8 minutes. However, 6.1 of those minutes were eight lineups that played a combined total of less than 1.3 minutes together (it looks like most of these lineups Pop put on the court at the end of quarters for defensive purposes). In addition, Duncan and Splitter played 6.7 minutes together with Joseph on the court.Hmmm, good find
As I said in that opening, I took out minutes played with the scrubs and lineups that have played together less than two minutes. I'm sure that's the discrepancy but I'll check.
In those 6.1 minutes of end-of-quarter lineups, the Spurs were outscored 11-9. In the Joseph minutes, the Spurs were outscored 4-2. So that's 12.8 minutes that didn't make the cut, Duncan/Splitter was outscored 15-11.
You're right, sorry DPG.
Was talking about Bonner, which is whom you referenced. Also, one could argue defense might have made that guy pretty valuable as well.You're right, sorry DPG.
Thanks for looking up.
So the Splitter/Duncan pair isn't as bad offensively as the other thread hinted. This pair isn't far from the Blair/Duncan pair which is somewhat logical. It's encouraging because that's the pair who should end games even if Pop hasn't taken that road for the moment.
So if Blair/Tim seems to be similar to Tiago/Tim why do people insist that Blair fits next to Tim while Tiago does not.
Here are the raw Splitter/Duncan stats:
Minutes: 111.8 (203 possessions by both teams)
FG%: 77-186 for 41.4%
3P%: 15-38 for 39.5%
FT%: 35-53 for 66%
Points: 204 (or 100.49 points per 100 possessions or 87.58 points per 48 minutes)
Opp FG%: 83-186 for 44.6%
Opp 3P%: 9-29 for 31%
Opp FT%: 28-38 for 73.7%
Opp Points: 203 (or 100.00 points per 100 possessions or 87.16 points per 48 minutes)
Pretty interesting. Bad two-point and free throw shooting but really good three-point shooting. Also a big advantage at the line. Defensively, doesn't give up many three-point shots or free throws and their field goal percentage defense is decent.
I'm not sure people are positively saying Blair fits next to Duncan -- more like Blair doesn't fit anywhere else.
If you take out the Joseph minutes and the little used lineup minutes like I did above, here are the adjusted stats of Duncan/Splitter:
Minutes: 99 minutes (181 possessions for the Spurs, 179 possessions for the opp)
FG%: 69-166 for 42.9%
3P%: 15-35 for 42.9%
FT%: 32-47 for 68.1%
Points: 185 (or 102.21 points per 100 possessions or 89.70 points per 48 minutes)
Opp FG%: 74-166 for 44.6%
Opp 3P%: 8-27 for 29.6%
Opp FT%: 24-31 for 77.4%
Opp Points: 180 (or 100.56 points per 100 possessions or 87.27 points per 48 minutes)
Even better three-point shooting and better three-point percentage defense. The low two-point percentage is a concern but other than that, those numbers look promising enough for Pop to give it more of a try.
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