Neal Odd Man Out?

[roycrikside]

Gary Neal D-
After missing two games due to a foot injury, Gary Neal returned. That's about the end of the positive things I can write about him. On defense, Neal was really bad. He couldn't stay in front of anyone and he was also allowing shooters enough space to shoot right over the top of him. Offensively, his shot selection was poor and it seemed to get worse and worse the more shots he missed. With Patty Mills on board, Neal is going to have to play a lot better if he wants to retain his role as backup point guard.

LJ, do you think there's a chance that in the playoffs as Pop pares down the rotation to 8 or 9 guys that Neal draws the short straw?

I've been paying attention to your ratings and it seems to me you've consistently harped on Neal's defense more than any Spur. With good reason, as he's dead last on the team in points allowed per 100 possessions, unless you count Corey Joseph.

Defensively, Neal is too slow to guard most point guards and too short to guard quality twos like Kobe, Wade, Harden, etc. Really I'm struggling to think of anyone he can guard.

Offensively, we're stacked at shooting guard with Manu and Jackson, and guys like Green and Leonard can play there too, and they've got a lot more size than Neal. As far as point guards go, Manu is the primary guy when Tony's out, and Green, Jackson and even Mills can all handle that role as well as far as bringing the ball up the floor and then handing it off to Ginobili to set up the offense.

It seems to me that Neal's assets are less and less needed with Manu's return to health and the acquisition of Jackson. He's the streakiest shooter on the team besides Green as well.

Is it possible that Pop will trim his rotation to the 8 or 9 guys that won't be liabilities on either end of the floor and that Neal will be relegated to a Steve Kerr in 2003 kind of role, where he only plays in an emergency if the team needs a bunch of late 3s or a last-second shot situation?

[angelbelow]

I actually think both Green and Neal are going to used on a situational basis. So I don't see either getting consistent minutes in the playoffs. By default, I'd prefer to see Neal since he is the more capable shooter. I also don't think Green is suited to be a starter. His streakiness works better coming off the bench. On a good day Green is capable of swinging the momentum in our favor and sparking a runs. On a bad day, he simply shouldn't play that much.

Playoff rotation of 7 is more realistic:
Duncan
Splitter
Leonard
Manu
Parker
Jackson
Diaw
8th will go to Bonner/Neal/Green/Blair.

[TheSkeptic]

I actually think both Green and Neal are going to used on a situational basis. So I don't see either getting consistent minutes in the playoffs. By default, I'd prefer to see Neal since he is the more capable shooter. I also don't think Green is suited to be a starter. His streakiness works better coming off the bench. On a good day Green is capable of swinging the momentum in our favor and sparking a runs. On a bad day, he simply shouldn't play that much.

Playoff rotation of 7 is more realistic:
Duncan
Splitter
Leonard
Manu
Parker
Jackson
Diaw
8th will go to Bonner/Neal/Green/Blair.

This looks reasonable to me. Personally, I'm just not convinced that Green is someone who should be a heavy rotation player in the post-season and the same goes with Bonner and Blair.

The more I look at last year and compare it to this year, however, I'm not sure that's how it's going to work out. Aside from giving the big 3 more minutes, it seems like Pop does't really make significant changes to the rotation these days. Which suggests that we need to hope guys play completely over their heads.

I'm trying not to panic but the fact that the season's coming to a close and things *still* haven't really tightened has me feeling like the Spurs won't be getting number 5 this year unless something changes dramatically.

[chazley]

Bonner is a lock to get time in the playoffs. Sorry if that disappoints you.

[Paranoid Pop]

Neal = best pure shooter on the roaster who can now play at his position, wouldn't write him off just yet.

[jiggy_55]

An 8-man rotation seems to be too short, especially considering Pop's tendencies lately to play everyone with this deep team. I would expect to see a minimum of 9 players and since Manu will act as a PG I would rather he starts off the bench:

PG- Parker
SG- Jackson
SF- Leonard
PF- Blair
C- Duncan

Bench:
6- Manu
7- Diaw
8- Splitter/Bonner
9- Green/Neal

However, I might add that I don't think it's smart to have Jackson start at the SG spot, he's not quick enough anymore to play with most 2-guards. Maybe Leonard could be the starting SG and Jackson the starting SF.

[TE]

Bonner is a lock to get time in the playoffs. Sorry if that disappoints you.

You seem like a person who goes to sleep at night happily knowing this to be true in a very sad way.

[100%duncan]

Bonner is a lock to get time in the playoffs. Sorry if that disappoints you.

this tbh

[timtonymanu]

I think Neal's game 5 shot is enough to convince Pop that he should be used in the playoffs. IMO, Green should be the odd man out but Pop starting him this late in the season is a good indicator that he plans to use him as well. It's hard to see who gets left out. I expect Blair to become the 5th big in the playoffs.

[jiggy_55]

I expect Blair to become the 5th big in the playoffs.

What would indicate that? Blair has started every single game this season and it seems Pop likes him at the beginning of games for his aggressiveness and scoring and then benches him later on. I could see that happening in the playoffs as well. If he starts hot, ride him, and if he's cold bench him the rest of the way. Blair usually has very strong scoring starts.

[timtonymanu]

What would indicate that? Blair has started every single game this season and it seems Pop likes him at the beginning of games for his aggressiveness and scoring and then benches him later on. I could see that happening in the playoffs as well. If he starts hot, ride him, and if he's cold bench him the rest of the way. Blair usually has very strong scoring starts.

He did start every game last season as well before Pop eventually gave McDyess his spot. Diaw is showing to be a good fit so I doubt Pop will make him the 5th big. Bonner is just as safe as Duncan, IMO. Splitter could also be the 5th big since he has been injured lately, but I dont think that's a good move and Tim needs a back-up center.

[therealtruth]

This looks reasonable to me. Personally, I'm just not convinced that Green is someone who should be a heavy rotation player in the post-season and the same goes with Bonner and Blair.

The more I look at last year and compare it to this year, however, I'm not sure that's how it's going to work out. Aside from giving the big 3 more minutes, it seems like Pop does't really make significant changes to the rotation these days. Which suggests that we need to hope guys play completely over their heads.

I'm trying not to panic but the fact that the season's coming to a close and things *still* haven't really tightened has me feeling like the Spurs won't be getting number 5 this year unless something changes dramatically.

The problem is if Pop is not going to make any changes now he definitely shouldn't be making them in game 1. If he really believes a 12 man rotation will work he should stick to it since it's what's worked so far. The playoffs is the worst time to try changing things.

[therealtruth]

What would indicate that? Blair has started every single game this season and it seems Pop likes him at the beginning of games for his aggressiveness and scoring and then benches him later on. I could see that happening in the playoffs as well. If he starts hot, ride him, and if he's cold bench him the rest of the way. Blair usually has very strong scoring starts.

Pop has to decide whether Blair's offense is worth the points he gives up defensively. Last year he chose more defense with Dice. This year it's hard to tell if he's going to try rolling with Blair and see if it works.

[jiggy_55]

He did start every game last season as well before Pop eventually gave McDyess his spot. Diaw is showing to be a good fit so I doubt Pop will make him the 5th big. Bonner is just as safe as Duncan, IMO. Splitter could also be the 5th big since he has been injured lately, but I dont think that's a good move and Tim needs a back-up center.

True, but if I recall he moved Dyess to the starting role before the end of the season. We are approaching that stage now and there doesn't seem to be much indication for this. If Blair can keep occasionally having those big 20 point scoring nights which are important for us, I can see him sticking in the lineup.

Pop has to decide whether Blair's offense is worth the points he gives up defensively. Last year he chose more defense with Dice. This year it's hard to tell if he's going to try rolling with Blair and see if it works.

Duncan looks much better this year than he did last year. Also, last year we had Parker struggling in the playoffs, and we had the pussy RJ in our lineup. So it was normal that Dyess was needed for defense or otherwise we would have been much worse.

Now we have Parker rolling on offense and defense, whoever starts at SG will be bringing energy and defense as well, and Leonard is a very good defender and keeps improving. Technically, Blair would be the only weak defender in our starting lineup this season. In comparison to last year when neither Parker or Manu were rolling and RJ still couldn't defend if his life depended on it. I honestly would hope Blair still gets some significant minutes in the playoffs while Mr. Bonner "I cant make a shot in the playoffs" is dropped to a much lesser role. The main bigs would be Duncan, Diaw, and Splitter while Blair gets minutes depending on how he starts and Bonner might get minutes depending on the matchups.

[TheSkeptic]

The problem is if Pop is not going to make any changes now he definitely shouldn't be making them in game 1. If he really believes a 12 man rotation will work he should stick to it since it's what's worked so far. The playoffs is the worst time to try changing things.

Oh I agree. The thing is, I feel like the pieces are all there for a championship but if we're seriously starting Blair and having Bonner as the first big off the bench in the playoffs, then it's not happening short of Bonner lighting it up on both ends and Blair suddenly learning how to play good defence.

Pop will *have* to change things but I don't think he will until it's too late. That's what's bothering me. I hate the thought of the team losing unnecessarily again. Especially since we still don't know which big is getting cut from the rotation.

[TheSkeptic]

True, but if I recall he moved Dyess to the starting role before the end of the season. We are approaching that stage now and there doesn't seem to be much indication for this. If Blair can keep occasionally having those big 20 point scoring nights which are important for us, I can see him sticking in the lineup.



Duncan looks much better this year than he did last year. Also, last year we had Parker struggling in the playoffs, and we had the pussy RJ in our lineup. So it was normal that Dyess was needed for defense or otherwise we would have been much worse.

Now we have Parker rolling on offense and defense, whoever starts at SG will be bringing energy and defense as well, and Leonard is a very good defender and keeps improving. Technically, Blair would be the only weak defender in our starting lineup this season. In comparison to last year when neither Parker or Manu were rolling and RJ still couldn't defend if his life depended on it. I honestly would hope Blair still gets some significant minutes in the playoffs while Mr. Bonner "I cant make a shot in the playoffs" is dropped to a much lesser role. The main bigs would be Duncan, Diaw, and Splitter while Blair gets minutes depending on how he starts and Bonner might get minutes depending on the matchups.

I like Blair. I really do. Love his physicality and the way he plays when he's hustling. If it wasn't for him mentally checking out of last series he'd probably be in my top 5.

That being said...I can't support this. Bring him off the bench.

I saw what happened to Duncan last time when he had to defend by himself pretty much the whole game. I hated watching what happened to Tim in the second halves of games and I still blame Blair and McDyess's inability to defend for that. As well as the coach somewhat. This team won't win it all playing that way.

If Pop won't start Splitter then I would seriously rather see Diaw in the starting line-up come playoff time. He's not what I'd describe as a super good defender but he'd be better than Blair.

[TDMVPDPOY]

defensively his been all season man, gets burned by pgs, and lazy as fck cant even defend players his size

his stroke and chucking of stupid shots to get his flow going hurts us more.....he should return back to his main role and be a spot up shooter

[TheSkeptic]

defensively his been all season man, gets burned by pgs, and lazy as fck cant even defend players his size

his stroke and chucking of stupid shots to get his flow going hurts us more.....he should return back to his main role and be a spot up shooter

If Patty can work himself into the rotation Neal should be able to go back to shooting.

[will_spurs]

Playoff rotation of 7 is more realistic:

Why?

I checked the last 5 years and Pop always used 12 (or even 13) players, with 10 (or 11) being considered rotation players, and 2 playing very limited minutes.

I see no reason why Pop would suddenly dramatically shorten his playoff rotation, especially in a year where the Spurs have more depth than usual.

Using this as a baseline, I'd expect to see the following:
1. Parker
2. Duncan
3. Ginobili
4. Leonard
5. Bonner
6. Splitter
7. Neal
8. Jackson
9. Diaw
10. Blair

11. Green (depending on match-ups)

12. Mills (limited minutes)
13. Anderson (limited minutes)

[Darkwaters]

An 8-man rotation seems to be too short, especially considering Pop's tendencies lately to play everyone with this deep team. I would expect to see a minimum of 9 players and since Manu will act as a PG I would rather he starts off the bench:

PG- Parker
SG- Jackson
SF- Leonard
PF- Blair
C- Duncan

Bench:
6- Manu
7- Diaw
8- Splitter/Bonner
9- Green/Neal

However, I might add that I don't think it's smart to have Jackson start at the SG spot, he's not quick enough anymore to play with most 2-guards. Maybe Leonard could be the starting SG and Jackson the starting SF.

You seriously think Blair is a lock to play but Splitter will have to beat out Bonner just to get minutes?

[Horse]

This looks reasonable to me. Personally, I'm just not convinced that Green is someone who should be a heavy rotation player in the post-season and the same goes with Bonner and Blair.

The more I look at last year and compare it to this year, however, I'm not sure that's how it's going to work out. Aside from giving the big 3 more minutes, it seems like Pop does't really make significant changes to the rotation these days. Which suggests that we need to hope guys play completely over their heads.

I'm trying not to panic but the fact that the season's coming to a close and things *still* haven't really tightened has me feeling like the Spurs won't be getting number 5 this year unless something changes dramatically.

You're right we've been playing so bad lately, we should probly just giveup the season now.

[Fireball]

I hated watching what happened to Tim in the second halves of games and I still blame Blair and McDyess's inability to defend for that. As well as the coach somewhat. This team won't win it all playing that way.

Agreed. Just remembered the first game in the Memphis series ... Duncan looked like a monster in the first half with 3 huge dunks ... then he disappeared because he could not do it all ...

[Darkwaters]

When looking at the rotation there are two major questions in my mind:

1) Who will play PG when TP is on the bench in the playoffs?
2) Who will start next to Timmy in the post?

The answers to these two questions drive the whole playoff lineup.

Options to question 1 include:
- Patty Mills - Unlikely but possible. We have to see how he meshes.
- Gary Neal - Very possible considering regular season rotations. But not the MOST likely.
- Danny Green - A darkhorse option. Might be successful if paired with Ginobili.
- Manu Ginobili - Another strong possibility.

Ginobili will be a member of the playoff rotation regardless. If he serves as Tony's primary backup then that could shorten the overall rotation. But if a different player takes on that role is effectively adds one spot to the overall rotation.

Possible answers to question 2 include:
- Blair - Possible, but unlikely. Hes one of the worst defensive players in the league. That hurts big time.
- Bonner - Possible, but again, hes not one to show up in the playoffs. Unlikely.
- Splitter - Based on Pop's aversion to playing Duncan and Splitter together this might kill this idea. But certain matchups might mandate this.
- Diaw - My favorite option and one that makes the most sense.

Blair and Bonner are the biggest candidates to see their minutes slashed. Their defensive lapses, and poor playoff play, don't bode well for them. Meanwhile, Diaw stands to continue to collect more minutes as the playoffs approach and is more likely than not the top candidate to start. Splitter is an obvious member of the rotation and will probably start whole series based on matchups.

The other major factor in determining this lineup revolves around how much small ball the Spurs will be forced to play. Jackson and Leonard may find themselves logging minutes at the 4 which will reduce the minutes for posts and may force another wing into the rotation for a series (Green or Neal?).

All that considered, people need to remember that rotations and especially starting lineups will likely vary between game to game and definitely series to series. But a baseline will probably be thus:

Parker
Green/Neal (backup PG minutes - paired with Ginobili)
Ginobili
Jackson
Leonard
Duncan
Splitter
Diaw

Thats an 8 man rotation. Likely starting lineup would be:
Parker
Leonard
Jackson
Diaw
Duncan

[acoelho1]

Neal is one of our most clutch player and someone who has hit big shots in the playoffs. I guarantee you he will be one the first subs into the game. I believe we will have between an 8 to 10 rotation. I expect Blair and possibly Green to be the odd men out. However, if you look at our 1st and 2nd units, its pretty damn impressive.

First Unit

TP
Ginobili
Leonard
Duncan
Diaw

Second Unit

Neal
Green
Jackson
Splitter
Bonner

[Darkwaters]

I don't think it's as simple as 1st team, 2nd team. Teams get away with a 7 man rotation at times in the playoffs. How? They have a spare bigman and a spare wing. One of their wings doubles as a backup PG. The desire is to maximize the playing time for your best players.

Based on this idea, I think an 8-9 rotation is good for a deep team like the Spurs. But with 9 you start to water down the minutes of better players. And with more than 9...well, the dropoff on quality just gets worse.