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ducks told me we should trade him so I'm not sure who to believe . . .
Not sure how many are aware, but Manu has now played 20 games and he's still shooting 52%. Obviously he's not playing as many minutes as normal (only 23 and change) and not taking as many shots as in some past seasons, but 20 games is not a tiny sample size.
If you look at his career, there have only been six or seven months where he played 10+ games and shot 50% or better, so this is a fairly rare stretch for him. When you extend it to 20 games, I think the only comparable shooting stretch of his career is the 2005 playoffs.
Ginobili is leading the entire league in points-per-100 possessions while he's on the floor and is averaging the highest true shooting percentage (65.5%) of his career, as well as the best assist rate (29%). In other words, he hasn't played much, but has been incredible when he has played.
If he can stay healthy during the playoffs and maintain this level of play offensively at 27-30 mpg, the Spurs will be extremely tough to beat.
ducks told me we should trade him so I'm not sure who to believe . . .
Yeah, Ginobili has been quietly great this season. I've seen people try to attribute Ginobili's amazing numbers to his hot start to the season, but even if you just look at his numbers since his latest return from injury (a span of 276 minutes), his PER is still a very impressive 22.5.
I've said it a lot but he should be repeated: I've never seen Ginobili play this well offensively in terms of seeing the floor, decision-making and just overall efficiency. The percentage of possessions he uses that end well has to be astronomically high.
Like with every player, I do have some concerns.
1. Ginobili's defense has been bad this year. The only players who have defended worse for the Spurs this year are probably Blair and Neal. He had a stretch following his latest return from injury where he was actually by far the worst defender on the team. The good news (well, great news) is that his defense has been much better lately. In the last three or four games, I'd say he's back to about 80-85% of his normal defensive level. As he gets healthier and more in shape, I'm pretty confident he'll become an asset on that end of the floor again.
2. He's relying more than ever on three-pointers. It's working now because he's shooting 44% on three-pointers. With opponents forced to defend him close, that has opened all types of lanes to drive and pass. What will happen if his three-point percentage falls back down to his career 37% mark? I think he'll be fine but it could change the equation.
3. His free throw attempts per minute are down more than half from last season. A lot of Manu's value in the playoffs has been due to his ability to get to the line. Will his free throw rate improve as he gets healthy? That's the hope.
If healthy, I expect Ginobili to be great in the playoffs. He's been in a zone all year ... even through all the injuries. Just gotta hope he stays healthy.
The last two games, he started mixing in some mid-range jumpers, which he hadn't done previously. It had been pretty much all lay-ups or 3s until the Phoenix game, so I think he's getting his game back slowly but surely.
The FT attempts I don't quite get. He's driving to the basket at the same rate he has the last few years, as far as ratio of FG attempts, but either he's getting uncontested attempts or just not getting calls.
One area where he racked up a bunch of his FT attempts was late in games when the other team was in desperate foul mode. Now those attempts are going to Parker (Phx) or Neal (Sac).
Manu made a comment during postgame interviews after the Kings game that I'm not quite sure what to make of.
He said something to the extent of "This season and going into the playoffs, I'm definitely looking to be more of a facilitator than a scorer."
Inherently there's nothing necessarily wrong with this statement, especially given the Spurs' team-first, "open man gets the shot...period" offense. Hypothetically in a future spurs game if Manu is consistently doubled 20 possessions and he properly passes out of the double team every single time to a wide open Danny Green who goes 0-20, costing the Spurs the game, I'm actually fine with that. If that's what the opposing team defense dictates, then so be it. It's exactly this sort of team first mentality that has the Spurs sitting top 3-ish (depending on the metric you use) in offense this season to begin with.
That being said, I don't want Ginobili to be too passive on the offensive end, especially when it comes to drawing fouls. I have a hunch that he's maybe saving his hard drives/euro-step finishes at the rim for games that actually matter (granted, he went this route at the end of the Kings game because we did not yet have the game in hand).
I think there's a risk for Ginobili to be too passive and perhaps forcing an assist when it may have been better for him to take the shot himself with the sort of mentality he espoused in that Spurs-Kings postagme interview.
I think especially against a team like OKC, wracking up fouls and getting into the bonus early could be pivotal in swaying a game or 2 in our favor. Just thinking about the 3 headed Durant-Westbrook-Harden "FT attempt" monster is making me quiver.
Good point
Yeah, I'd say his massive drop in getting to the line is more odd than worrisome right now. I don't think the numbers are available anywhere but I'd say that over the years, Manu has averaged at least one free throw per game solely due to end of game fouls and shooting all technical fouls. (Maybe even around two; it's difficult to estimate.) This year, he hasn't gotten those extra FTs.
Plus it seems like Ginobili has just been unfortunate in terms of the refs not calling borderline (and some not-so-borderline) calls. That evens out over time but it has to be a bit frustrating for him right now. A couple times it looked like PHX players were taking intentional fouls against him ... and they weren't called.
Last year, 43% of Manu's attempts were 3s, where this year it's 48% so far, so yeah, that's a big difference.
However, last year 26.5% of his attempts were at the basket and he only converted 59% of those. This year it's 32% and he's converting 70%.
He's shooting from the paint at about the same rate, 39% this year compared to 37.8 last year, but shooting 64% this year compared to 55% last year.
With all the scorers we have on this team there are only 4 that can create their own shot. This is Jackson, Parker, Neal, and Ginobili. I believe that Ginobili should end up coming off the bench with Jackson taking Green's spot in the playoffs. Along with Ginobili, I would like to see Neal come in with him at the 2. This is just my opinion, but I believe that Neal is the best pure shooter on the team and would like him to spot up on the wings and let Manu man the second unit.
For the second unit, I would like to see:
Ginobili
Neal
Leonard
Bonner/Diaw
Splitter
It's a perfect mix of offense and defense and Manu works well with these guys. Sadly this would mean reduced minutes for Green, but he is just too much of a streaky shooter for my tastes. If Neal is too much of a liability on the defense end, then Pop should stick Green in, but even he can be sketchy.
Not too worried about his scoring. He scores when the team needs him to score. As long as the other guys are going well, he'll pass. If nobody can knock down a shot, he'll look to score more. I do think one of the reasons his percentages are so high is because he's taking, relative to him, high percentage attempts, he's not really forcing too much, because he doesn't have to.
One thing I am excited about is him working in concert with Diaw. He's never played with anyone on the second unit who can pass like he does, and Diaw can really get him some easy looks. It's very easy to understand why Manu's been very enthusiastic about that partnership.
It's ironic, if you think about it. Parker has wanted Diaw on the team forever, but really it's Ginobili who'll benefit more from it.
Agree for the most part. I think Pop has a couple of lineup options to play with for the second unit. If the team is behind and he wants some quick points, I'd go Manu/Neal/Leonard/Bonner/Splitter. If we're ahead and he wants a defensive quintet, I'd go Manu/Jackson/Leonard/Diaw/Splitter.
Yeah, the Ginobili-Diaw connection will be interesting to see. One aspect of Diaw's game that immediately caught my eye (the game we won against Dallas recently) was his ability to set crisp screens. He seemed to have a great knack for understanding the proper spacing/angles for the pick and roll up top.
In the Kings game, however, I think he was a rather sloppy with his screens for Manu, and several times he didn't really get the spacing right from the start, but I think these are chemistry issues that can be (hopefully) fixed with time.
Diaw to me seems like he could fulfill a Splitter-like role (setting solid screens, rolling to the open spot) with arguably better court vision (passing out of the roll) and perhaps less finishing prowess (compared to Tiago) around the rim. I'll admit - I have yet to see how Diaw can score consistently on the court, but I'm not too worried about it at the moment.
Is that based off of Synergy sports? Ginobili has been shaking off the rust since his injury but tbh I thought he was still one of the better defending guards on the roster, in particular Ginobili did a damn good job against the quicker Roddy not too long ago when they were matched up in the first half. Ginobili's energy and hustle on the defensive end has still been there too, and he's still a pesky defender that can stay in front of his man
Oh god, this has been the case every year since 08 and manu have failed to stay healthy right when the spurs needed him the most
maybe ducks is right, we should trade manu while we still can
Seriously though, hopefully he can stay healthy for the rest of the year (20+ missed games in a lockout season is enough, right???)
The only concern regarding Manu come playoffs time is health, that's it. If he's healthy you know he's going to contribute one way or another.
I haven't looked closely at the data, but from what I can gather based on my "eyeball test" of watching the games, Ginobili seems to be late on close outs to perimeter shooters more often than not.
Pay close attention to Manu trying to close out on a shooter next time. Not only does Manu appear to be late closing out (as of...late, since coming back from his injury), but the opposing perimeter players seems to make him pay for it more often than not.
Occasionally I'll see Manu close out late on a perimeter shooter, and the shooter still misses, but it's still mediocre-poor defense on Manu's part. I think the fact that Manu loves to roam around in the paint looking for steals or looking to trap makes him more vulnerable to getting burned on perimeter shots due to poor close outs. His attention is just too divided. Of course, every now and then this ends up paying off for us (Manu will get a couple of key steals for easy baskets, etc.) but nevertheless his defense overall has been pretty poor overall.
Hopefully not like 06 I saidddd
Also, just to be clear, when I say Manu appears to be poor at closing out on perimeter shooters, it's nothing overly blatant. Manu will still run out and put a hand up, and from afar if you sort of squint your eyes it may appear as though his defense isn't bad, but in reality I feel like he's always just a fraction of a second late.
What a ing brain fart
The analysis is nice and fancy but Manu will always be a game changer, he always has and he always will. If it's not his shooting, he'll contribute somewhere us, that is why he is Manu Ginobili. I'm optimistic we'll enter the offseason with full health so lets hope he continues his hot streak.
It's mostly based off of observation. As jestersmash noted, Ginobili's closeouts haven't been as crisp as usual -- something I definitely agree with.
Plus, when Ginobili wasn't moving well, his two options in one-on-one defense were to either overplay and allow the drive or back off and allow a shot. But now that he's moving better, he has gotten back to playing closer to typical level of Ginobili defense. He's never been more than an average one-on-one defender but for a while he was far below average.
Most of Ginobili's value on the defensive end will always lie in his team-defense abilities. He's one of the very best help defenders of the best decade. As he feels better, he'll get back to that.
If you want statistical evidence of Ginobili's defensive struggles so far, it's available. When he's been on the court this season, the Spurs allow 108.42 points per 100 possessions. That's worse than every player on the team outside of Cory Joseph. It's even worse than Blair and Neal who are bottom 10% defenders in the NBA.
But, like I said, Ginobili's D is improving. I was pretty darn impressed with his defense against the Suns. Earlier in the season, I think he just wasn't capable of playing very good defense due to being out of shape. As long as he stays healthy, his D should be fine come playoff time.
Manu is a certified bad ass and I love watching him. I really hope he's healthy because like it or not, the fans and I believe the team feel a certain level of confidence when he's healthy.
The second unit is loaded. I would like to see some of that talent in the starting lineup (Ginobili, Splitter) so they can start games better. Green and Diaw can take their place. It relieves pressure on the second unit as they will mainly just have to maintain a lead.
Starting will make Ginobili more aggressive offensively which is important. Think back to '10 where he started slow till he started starting. I think there was a game earlier in the year in which Ginobili started the game with a 10-0 run of his own.
No doubt about it.
Imo Ginobili has been an overall above average defender including staying with his man but maybe its all the hustle and energy highlights that skew that judgment. But I was actually impressed with how well Manu was able to stay in front of and bother the quicker Roddy
I'm not sure how much stock we can put into those numbers unless it takes into account that Manu's also been coming off the bench
jetersmash's point about the close outs is interesting though...and it reminds me of an infamous point in the Grizz series where not a single Spur on the court including Manu even tried to contest against an open 3 point shooter
Anyway like you guys said, a healthy and in-shape Manu is a game changer on both ends of the court. Just don't foul a last second 3 point shot
Manu has actually been back from his second injury stint for a total of 26 days. That is less than the time for preseason training camp. He was not in great shape the first time he returned from the hand problem. I have noticed also that he is a little slower than usual at this time of the year but he does have a good reason. IMO he has established his defense a little more each game. I look forward to seeing him have another month of solid minutes and watching players like Harden get flustrated before games end.
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