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There's actually going to be b2bs in the playoffs this year. Someone linked to an NBA.com article a month or two ago explaining how some teams (more than likely the Spurs) will get them in the first round.
Is it really that important to get our guys, especially our Big 3, an extra day of rest. Or to go to such great lengths to try and keep them fresh for the playoffs? The numbers below show how each of the Big 3 performs on 0, 1, and 2 days of rest.
It couldn't be more clear that playing b2b has a negative effect on all three of them. Manu has fewer total games, so his decline after a second day of rest might just be a fluke. Tony, as you might expect, seems to be affected less than the other two - but even his FG% is drastically better when he has had a night off.
All of this may foretell good things for the playoffs, but it may also mean that the remaining regular season schedule is destined for some rough patches.
Tim Duncan
Rest.......PTS.......RB..........AST........FG%
0 Day////13.2//////7.2///////1.9////////.421
1 Day////14.7//////9.3///////2.5////////.490
2 Day////17.5/////10.3//////2.7////////.500
Tony Parker
Rest//////PTS//////RB////////AST//////FG%
0 Day////16.5//////3.6///////8.5//////.441
1 Day////20.7//////2.5///////7.5//////.486
2 Day////19.1//////2.2///////7.5//////.509
Manu Ginobili
Rest//////PTS//////RB////////AST///////FG%//////3P%
0 Day////11.0//////2.8///////2.2///////.567//////.354
1 Day////15.6//////3.8///////4.4.//////.570//////.522
2 Day////8.9///////2.7///////5.7///////.469//////.381
The other players, for the most part, seem to be less affected - as long as you only look at points and rebounds. But have a look at Danny Green's FG% and 3P%. It sure looks like this may be part of the answer to why he sometimes shoots great from beyond the arc, and why he sometimes sucks.
Danny Green
Rest///////FG%///////3P%
0 Day/////.375///////.362
1 Day/////.429///////.361
2 Day/////.523///////.636
And I don't think it's a coincidence that Kawhi's FT% on 0 days rest is only .667, but climbs to .806 and .875 on 1 and 2 days rest, respectively. Even young guys need fresh legs.
Tonight Pop rested the Big 3 on the second night of a b2b. Looking at how they have struggled when playing without a day of rest, it looks like perfect timing. Could they have gutted out a win? Possibly - maybe even probably. But if winning it all is the real goal, then these numbers show just how important it really is to have those three guys rested and fresh, come playoff time. Of course there won't be any b2b's in the playoffs. But then again, there won't be another championship, without our Big 3 playing at the top of their game. If they're healthy and fresh, I like their chances against anyone, at any seed.
[Edit: Sorry - the formatting got lost. I did a down and dirty fix, but it's gonna look like if you quote.]
Last edited by GSH; 04-10-2012 at 01:03 AM.
There's actually going to be b2bs in the playoffs this year. Someone linked to an NBA.com article a month or two ago explaining how some teams (more than likely the Spurs) will get them in the first round.
Heh... if anyone gets them, it will be the Spurs. Well, then, I guess it will be that much more important for them to be rested going into the post-season. You see what happens when they're tired.
http://www.nba.com/2011/news/11/27/schedule/index.html
Won't be until the Second Round, so getting through the first round quickly could be important for the Spurs.
I think that the only situations where our Big 3 should be rested are the back-to-back-to-back scenarios. Pop did well the last time and we got 3 wins, but I was not happy with Pop resting all 3 against the Jazz. Didn't think it was necessary to force this loss, he could have spread out the DNP's across 2 or 3 different games rather than rest everyone today.
Good work
Danny Green has talked about being tired a few times this season. He's also gone through stretches where his energy wanes. It makes sense that his b2b numbers are down.
As it stands, Green is the last player to have played in every game this season. Your numbers are proof enough for me that Pop should be careful and give Green some rest going into the postseason -- especially if the plan is to continue to start him.
The Spurs are struggling in these situations even though they play the lowest minutes in the league. Other teams are playing 30+ minutes and back-to-backs. You have to wonder if the Spurs conditioning will hold up in the playoffs.
Great work, GSH.
While the idea to rest the big 3 is good, Pop must be careful not to overwork his role players. Thus far, most role players have been spared the burden relatively well, but Danny Green has played too many minutes despite exhaustion.
Pop will have to find a Nash equilibrium between rotating his players enough to keep them all healthy and trying to find an ideal fit and set rotation for the playoffs.
1st thanks for the post.
Just FYI, for tables a useful code is to put [ code ] and [ /code ] (without the spaces) around your data, you can then format the whole thing with spaces and tabs.
If you look at your post I fixed the data for Tim, to show you how it would look.
[ code ]
Tim Duncan
Rest PTS RB AST FG%
0 Day 13.2 7.2 1.9 .421
1 Day 14.7 9.3 2.5 .490
2 Day 17.5 10.3 2.7 .500
[ /code ]
without the spaces in between the brackets gives a result of:
Hope this helps.Code:Tim Duncan Rest PTS RB AST FG% 0 Day 13.2 7.2 1.9 .421 1 Day 14.7 9.3 2.5 .490 2 Day 17.5 10.3 2.7 .500
Last edited by Slomo; 04-10-2012 at 10:39 AM.
Great write up. All the reason in the world to give em rest. Especially the last week of the season.
good stuff, thanks GSH.
big difference. the 800 calories they save goes towards muscle recuperation.
the body is a machine that adjusts automatically. For pro players in rest days, their body automatically adjusts to Recovery Mode.
No sane person could support playing the Big 3 in every one of the 16 games in the final 23 days of the season. So what's left is the determination of which games to play them and which games to rest them. Leaving them behind for a one game road trip in the middle of 11 days at home was a very smart way to maximize rest while minimizing impact on the W-L record.
btw, Pop is throwing the 2nd laker game at LA IMO
It's gona piss off TNT and Stern
Yeah, you can see that coming from a million miles away. It will be all hands on deck for the two home games v. the Lakers, and last night's roster for the game at Staples.btw, Pop is throwing the 2nd laker game at LA IMO
It's gona piss off TNT and Stern
lakerfan paying $300+ to see 40 minutes of Neal, Bonner and Diaw's fat ass
It helps a lot, Slomo. Thanks for taking the time to show me. I always dread trying to format things like that.
A key reason why the business greed of B2B's is an abomination, denying the players and the fans of the best performances.
Yes - but with the exception of OKC, MIA, and CHI, all of those other teams have much worse records. And I'll be honest, I haven't been watching those other three teams in terms of limiting minutes, or resting players. But even if they haven't been doing it, you could make the case that the reason their records are as good as the Spurs is because they have ridden their starters more. So you could just as easily question whether their main players will be fresh for the playoffs.
I guess my point is this: as long as our Big 3 are all healthy, and able to play at the top of their games, I'm not really concerned about what the other teams are doing The Spurs have a shot at beating anybody. They have great role players, and a great bench. But a fifth championship, if it comes, is going to be on the backs of those three guys. There's no guide book that tells how to tweak those guys to a full 100% at the right time. But you have to see that's exactly what Pop is trying to do. You may disagree with his strategy, but he's definitely got his priorities right.
Obviously, it helps in the short term. The older/more mileage a player is/has, the longer they have off (within' reason) the better. But this notion that by sitting them last night or by refusing to play them more than some made up threshold, they're "putting something in the bank for later", is complete and total nonsense. Going from 35 to 30 mpg over the course of a season can do that. But once you get around 30 mpg, with the shape these guys are in, it doesn't matter whether they play 28, 29, 30, 31, it makes no difference. We've seen irrefutable evidence of this the past two playoffs.
You could argue that the big three will be at a disadvantage compared to other stars, because other stars are used to playing major minutes. So in the playoffs, when they have to go 42 or whatever in a game, it'll be just another night at the office. But when the big three have to go 36-40, it'll be foreign territory. Only Parker has occasionally played in that range this season, but not recently. Ginobili, I'm fairly certain only exceeded 30 minutes once and it was within' the first few games of the season. He's been conditioned to play 24-28. So when he has to play 35 in a game, he won't have more energy, he'll have less. It's like weight lifting. You don't suddenly go from being able to bench 150 10 times to being able to bench 250 20 times. You've got to gradually build yourself up.
This is why I thought Green was going to get rest last night. We've all seen him struggle in b2b. I know he's young but 60+ games in 4 months will take a toll on you.
So manu is better on 0 days rest than two days rest.... interesting.
Totally agree with this. This forum overrates minutes per game played so much as if it not ever playing over 30 minutes somehow translates in better performance in the playoffs. In any kind of compe ive physical activity is exactly the opposite, the more you practise the better prepared you will be.
Basically I can't blame the coaching staff for being extra careful in hopes of having everyone healthy in the playoffs for the first time in many years, and I even support them in nights like these to completely sit the more important players. But that's all you can expect with this strategy, lower the risk of injury to a minimum, not improve on conditioning.
Quit pretending like hyperbole is your bff, cuz it isn't.
The stats between 1 day off and 2 days off are quite similar, except for Manu I assume due to the small # of games he's played.
So in effect, you won't be seeing much of a e in production from Timmy or Parker just because they had 2 days off rather than 1 day off. In Parker's case his points are actually a bit down, but Duncan sees an increase in points although his other averages are roughly the same.
It's obvious that the back-to-back performances aren't good for any of the Big 3, but maybe Pop needs to stop babysitting them at sometimes and have them psychologically think they can't perform on back-to-back's. I don't like it and it could hurt us in the playoffs when we have a big chance of playing a back-to-back in the 2nd round (hopefully without travel though). It would suck for us to suffer a loss because the guys think they can't play well in such situations.
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