The Clippers loss yesterday night against Phoenix means they are now one full game late on the Lakers, and since they have the same remaining number of games (3) and the Lakers hold the tiebreaker, it's actually 1.5 games.
The magic number for the Lakers to clinch 3rd seed is therefore 2, which means any combination of 2 wins for the Lakers and/or losses for the Clippers.
The Lakers next games: @SA, OKC, @SAC
The Clippers next games: NO, @ATL, @NYK
The Lakers should at least win against SAC (which should be trying to tank at that point), but that's unless the Lakers purposefully want to tank it to get the 4th seed. The other 2 games are obviously against teams fighting for the 1st spot.
The Clippers have an easier road, except NO managed to beat Houston in OT yesterday (WTF). After that, Atlanta might be tanking to get Indiana instead of Boston (Atlanta is being blocked by Boston anyway due to the stupid "Division winner with worse record rule"), and NY, well, is NY.
On the 1st and 2nd seed front, Spurs own the tiebreaker against OKC and OKC has one more loss (and therefore one fewer game to play). If SA wins all their games they are guaranteed HCA against Miami and probably Chicago too (not sure what the tiebreakers are).
The magic number for top seed is 4, any combination of 4 Spurs wins or OKC losses.
OKC next 4 games: @SAC, @LAL, SAC, DEN
SA next 5 games: LAL, CLE, POR, @PHO, @GS
OKC should win twice against SAC, the other 2 games may be tough, as Denver may be positioning for 6th seed.
SA should win against CLE and POR and against GS. We should beat PHO too but since it's at their place and they might still be alive for the playoffs, it won't be easy.
Resting the big 3 tonight is not a bad situation, it helps the Lakers lock the 3rd seed and still means the Spurs are very likely to get the 1st seed in the West. That's pretty much all that's left in the Spurs control at this point.
On the other hand it's unlikely the Clippers don't lose one, but that's obviously out of our control. There's also the aspect that the LAL might want the 3rd seed after all due to better 1st round match-up.
EDIT: Updated to take comments into account. I had wrongly asserted the magic number for 3rd seed was 1, instead of 2. This changes the picture quite a bit.
Last edited by will_spurs; 04-20-2012 at 04:35 AM.
Good rundown of possibilities, but I do not share the feeling that the Spurs can control something. And I just do not want to see the Big Three getting rest against the Lakers. Rest them later if the probabilities to control the outcome have increased, but until then try to win every game and stay healthy ...
The point is that there aren't more ways down the road to control the seedings, except our own. Tonight the Spurs can control the seeding of 2 other teams.
Yeah, but since we cannot fully control our own seeding right now, what sense does it make to control the seeding of other teams?
The Lakers magic number to get the 3 seed is 2, not 1. Think about it. If they go 1-2 and the Clips finish 3-0, the Clips would finish with a better record.
The Lakers need to either beat OKC (that'd be great for us) or hope that the Clips lose @Atl or @NYK. I don't think the Lakers will be trying to "tank" to the 4th seed because even though they'd probably rather face us than OKC in rd 2, they have to get past rd 1 first and Dallas is a much easier match-up (no Chandler or Barea this time) than Memphis.
The Lakers magic number to get the 3 seed is 2, not 1. Think about it. If they go 1-2 and the Clips finish 3-0, the Clips would finish with a better record.
The Lakers need to either beat OKC (that'd be great for us) or hope that the Clips lose @Atl or @NYK. I don't think the Lakers will be trying to "tank" to the 4th seed because even though they'd probably rather face us than OKC in rd 2, they have to get past rd 1 first and Dallas is a much easier match-up (no Chandler or Barea this time) than Memphis.
I don't think that's right. The magic number for LAL to get the 3rd seed should be 2.
LAL: 40-23, LAC: 39-24
LAL winning only 1 game out of their 3 will give them a record of 41-25. If LAC wins all 3 of their games, they get to 42-24. However, 2 LAL wins or (1 LAL win + 1 LAC loss) guarantees the 3rd seed to the Lakers.
And that's where the risk is. If the Spurs beat the Lakers tonight, and the Lakers then lose to OKC on Sunday, LAL can drop to #4 if the Clips win out.
Pop might want to rest Ginobili (after all, he had a concussion the other night, right?), but he should try to win this one.
1) They would completely control their own fate as #1. And a first round against Jazz or Suns would be easieer than facing Dallas or Denver.
2) The lakers are unlikely to end up 4 anyway, if anything because they might not want to face the Spurs anytime, having been beaten down twice and weaknesses exposed, and they'd be going against Memphis, which matches up very well against their bigs. It would probably be a long, tough series for them.
In that case, Spurs can still lose in Phoenix and send the Toros to GS.
where did you read that he had a concussion?
True, but that would mean losing HCA against OKC if the Spurs meet them in the WCF. The other way of going about it would be to lose vs LAL tonight, virtually assuring the Lakers of the 3rd seed (assuming they win vs the Kings in their last one). Then the Spurs can proceed to win their last 4 (CLE, POR, PHX, GSW) and still maintain the #1 seed by virtue of the tie breaker over OKC. That would leave OKC and LAL at 2 and 3, facing off in the 2nd round.
I saw it, didn't you?
Concussion, from the Latin concutere ("to shake violently")[1] or the Latin concussus ("action of striking together"),[2] is the most common type of traumatic brain injury. The terms mild brain injury, mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI), mild head injury (MHI), minor head trauma, and concussion may be used interchangeably.
The best-known concussion grading scales count head injuries in which loss of consciousness does not occur to be mild concussions and those in which it does to be more severe.
I think the NBA has even rules on how to behave in case of head traumas. Whether or not there was loss of consciousness.
Even if Manu had no further symptoms, no doctor could argue with the SPurs being cautious on this matter.
@royrikside: Manu didn't have a concussion, but that would be an easy excuse, since he was banged up in the last game. Not that Pop needs excuses anyway to do whatever he wants.
@Warlord23: finally somebody understands the whole thing
Losing tonight is still the best way to control our destiny AND avoid injuries.
Correct.
Losing intentionally to the Lakers with a full roster is (i) bad psychologically and (ii) unlikely, the way Spurs have played as of late.
My feeling is that to lose to the Lakers, this team needs to play without a few players.
Parker or Ginobili. And one between Duncan, Splitter or Diaw.
This is up to Pop to decide to sit them.
He certainly has an excuse to sit Manu.
Losing tonight at full strength will just reinforce the Lakers' idea that the loss last night was nothing, that they didn't have Kobe, and that they should target SA in the second round, hence lose the remaining games to get the 4.@royrikside: Manu didn't have a concussion, but that would be an easy excuse, since he was banged up in the last game. Not that Pop needs excuses anyway to do whatever he wants.
@Warlord23: finally somebody understands the whole thing
Losing tonight is still the best way to control our destiny AND avoid injuries.
Plus, to lose tonight and NOT have confidence problems, Pop needs to sit a few players.
The Spurs game @Phoenix could be very difficult to win and easily turn into a loss. I don't think Pop will be fine with playing a high intensity game that close to the playoffs start. It would be way more comfortable for Spurs if they don't have to win thsi game in order to secure the first spot.
Clippers game in Atlanta could be loss. They have won their last 2 games so it doesn't looks like they are tanking to avoid Boston. In fact they might fight hard to get HCA over them.
Wow, a really complicated situation here, we could just forfeit tomorrow and win the rest of the games. With that we have an easy first round in Utah/Phx and Clippers in the 2nd. I just think they will beat the Memphis,tbh, I mean they have the young guys and can be a bad match-up nightmare for the Grizz.
Maintain your priorities as to rest and rhythm, but play to win the game.
Who talked about "full strength". If you are trying to tank, of course you don't come at full strength. Pop can rest the big 3 and be in a win-win situation because of everything I outlined above + if the remaining Spurs players keep it close, this will get into the Lakers head, but if it's a blowout loss we fallback on the "no big 3" excuse.
I believe the Spurs need to go all out to win this game. They need to get the #1 seed because I think whatever team comes out of that 4/5 matchup is going to be beat up. Spurs/Jazz which would be the likely first round then probably goes no more than 5 games. I like that scenario going into the 2nd round. The likely 2/3 matchup then is Lakers/OKC which could be another bloodbath.
Say you tank/rest tonight, and you wind up facing the Lakers down the road anyway. How bad would that be psychologically?
For the last LAL game, Pop kicked the coaches out of the front of the plane and just talked to T,T, and M. I doubt THEY want to throw this game, so I doubt the Spurs come at this any way other than full strength unless Manu is really hurt.
FEAR THE SPURS
This is my mantra, and it will be drilled into my skull. Now and forever. To say over and over and over and over and over again. Why? Because -- Hi, my username is Legacy, and I am a Bipolar Spurs fan.
YEESH.
stop being pussies. all we need to fear are injuries at this point.
Looking at tonight's game from the Lakers' point of view they're going to go all out for several reasons.
1) They like to win
2) Revenge for Tuesday
3) A win makes a 2/3 Spurs/Lakers 2nd round matchup more likely
4) Getting the 3 seed means avoiding the Grizzlies in the first round
5) (if Kobe plays) Kobe always has something to prove
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