Preview: The Utah Jazz

[angelbelow]

The Utah Jazz offense:

-17.2% of the Utah offense comes from post-up situations. Undoubtedly most of that production comes from Big Al. Milsap, Favors, and Kanter probably share some of the load but none are known for their post play.

-25% of the Jazz offense comes from cuts and transition baskets. Their cutting and slashing should come as no surprise, as that's been a strong part of their offense for 2 decades. In general, transition basketball takes more of a backseat role in any offense in the playoffs. This is due to carefully drawn up gameplans by coaching staffs, stronger sense of focus from both teams, the reduced game pace to name a few.

-Statistically, the Jazz are one of the worse spot-up shooting teams in the league. When you take a glance at their roster, their struggles from the perimeter aren't surprising. However, Devin Harris and Gordon Hayward have been very consistent in the month of April:
Devin Harris: 44% FG, 42% 3pm (2.4 3pm per game)
Gordon Hayward: 51% FG, 49% 3pm (1.9 3pm per game)

How do the Spurs stack up defensively?

- Duncan has done a pretty good job on Big Al this year. As long as Timmy or Tiago make Jefferson work hard for his 20 and 10, we shouldn't have too big of a a problem with their post offense. We also need to keep an eye on Favors because he gets a good amount of his points from offensive rebounding opportunities. Otherwise, Favors isn't really a post up threat, 37.7 FG% compared to the 47.5% of Jefferson.

-The Spurs are ranked number 1 in defending cutters and slashers. Tim and Tiago do a great job protecting the rim. Guys like Leonard, Green, Jackson, and even Ginobili are proactive in helping out down low as well.

-Devin Harris, despite his recent emergence, I don't anticipate him being much of a problem for us. His 3pt shooting percentages are solid in the month of April but have been historically inconsistent. Although the Spurs struggle against defending pick and roll ball handlers (especially the speedy ones), Harris (and the rest of the guards ) haven't been too effective from there. For example, their pick and roll ball handler production ranks 29th in the league and they end up turning the ball over 20.8% of the time.

-Gordon Hayward, In addition to his improved jump shooting in the month of April, he's also been more aggressive in taking the ball to the hole. That's an exciting development for Jazz fans. But I'm not convinced that he can be consistent with the current range of offensive weapons hes showing off right now. I would dare him to iso, limit his penetration, go under screens and dare him to shoot.

For Utah to win, I think they need 2 of their big 3 (Harris, Milsap, Jefferson) to play like superstars. They'll also need all three of their x-factors in Hayward, Favors, and Howard to play above average. As with most young teams, I don't see the Jazz being capable of consistently putting forth a winning effort.

Final prediction: Spurs 4 - Jazz 1

[angelbelow]

Some more statistics from our regular season match up:

The Jazz shot:
-42.7 FG% overall
-27.7 3pt% (only hitting 15 against us this season)
-Sent to them to the free throw line an average of 26 times per game by the Spurs. This will probably change completely as the Spurs are excellent at not fouling.
-Their most consistent player was definitely Al Jefferson. He averaged 20 points and 10.6 rebs through the first 3 games.
-Paul Millsap was effectively shut down through the first 3 games. He averaged 8.6pts on 34% shooting.

Talk of Utah playing Jefferson, Millsap, and Favors together will further hurt their 3pt shooting opportunities. I'm also curious to see if their offense is going to stall because of the lack of spacing. If it does, the Jazz will have a tougher time scoring the ball as they shoot a 40% eFG% when the shot clock passes 21. (Spurs are lightly worse after 21+ but we take fewer shots during this time frame and are very effective from 0-20 seconds)

[sananspursfan21]

I say spurs go up 3-0, slip on the close out, regain focus and finish in 5

[angelbelow]

Game 1:

Harris and Hayward both heavily missed fired from the perimeter:
-Harris was 1-4 from 3pt territory.
-Hayward was also 1-4 from 3pt territory.
-Overall for the Jazz, they shot 31% from 3 point land.

Transition defense wasn't great in the first half but was definitely under control in the 2nd half. The Spurs defense against cutters was great all game and you can see why the Spurs are ranked number 1 in that category.

Al Jefferson had a nice stat line, but his on screen impact was minimized by Duncan's magnificent defense.

Jazz were able to score 44 points in the paint on 22-39 shooting. Otherwise, the Jazz were held to just 10-37 from outside the paint. Once again, their lack of perimeter shooting is just too obvious of a weakness.

We were able to take the Jazz out of their comfort zone offensively and had a relatively comfortable win. Still, I was impressed that the Jazz were able to hang around within the 6-14 point range. I expect less resistance from them in game 2 but a more compe ive game 3.