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So it is written, so shall it be
Had to condense, but here are his Spurs predictions:
WEST
(1) Spurs vs. (8) Jazz
Season: Spurs 3-1
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Jazz 101.9
Accuscore: Spurs 93% Jazz 7%
Could Utah make this interesting? Perhaps. Size gives San Antonio some problems, and the monstrous Millsap-Jefferson-Favors frontcourt the Jazz have rolled out of late has been incredibly effective. Additionally, Utah stinks against zones, and the Spurs hardly ever play zone.
Nonetheless, I just don't see how the Jazz will get any stops. Utah is by and large awful against the pick-and-roll, and the Spurs have been carving up teams with that play all season. The Jazz's defense at the point of attack would have to dramatically improve to give them much of a chance against this Spurs juggernaut.
Keep an eye on the Jazz because in another year or two they're going to be handful, but they can't handle this big a step up in class just yet. Even when the Spurs sat their three stars in Salt Lake City, the Jazz barely beat them.
Pick: Spurs in 5
WEST
(1) Spurs vs. (4) Grizzlies
Season: Spurs 4-0
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Grizzlies 102.5
Accuscore: Spurs 80%, Grizzlies 20%
It's a rematch of last season's huge upset, in which No. 8 Memphis knocked off top-seeded San Antonio, and a few trends from a year ago remain. Memphis did an amazing job taking away San Antonio's 3-point game a year ago, and that will be Job 1 again this time around. The Grizzlies also have a matchup problem for the Spurs in the Randolph-Gasol frontcourt, and this time around they have Rudy Gay on the wing too.
Alas, San Antonio did not stand still. Manu Ginobili is healthy this time, and the supporting cast is much better. Boris Diaw and Tiago Splitter give the Spurs more options for defending Randolph, plus the Spurs aren't facing the Z-Bo of a year ago. Also, the second units are going to matter in a compressed series with a back-to-back in the middle, and the Spurs' bench is going to blow the Grizzlies' off the floor. Finally, there's the issue of ac ulated rest. San Antonio is fresh as a daisy; the Grizzlies have been riding the starters all year and may very well be coming off a grueling seven-game slog with no rest.
For all those reasons, I think San Antonio avenges last season and emerges relatively easily as a conference finalist.
Pick: Spurs in 5
CONFERENCE FINALS
Sorry to be so chalky here, but the fact is four teams have dominated the entire regular season, so it would be a little bizarre to go off kilter and pick somebody else to show up at this point. Not saying it can't happen; just saying it's probably not the way to bet.
(1) Spurs vs. (2) Thunder
Season: Spurs 2-1
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Thunder 106.9
Accuscore: Thunder 51%, Spurs 49%
The Thunder are really talented and nearly always play hard. They don't always play smart, however, and they're about to get a serious education in this series. I expect the Spurs' offensive precision to pick them apart, and while Durant and Westbrook will get some of those points back for the Thunder, I still have a hard time picking OKC when the Spurs basically used the regular season as a warm-up exercise and still outpaced them in the standings.
My favorite stat: San Antonio's three stars -- Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan -- have only played 297 minutes together the entire season because Ginobili missed half the year and the Spurs have been so proactive about resting players. When they do play together? San Antonio outscores opponents by 17.8 points per 48 minutes. Again, that's not a typo: 17.8.
The good news for the Thunder is that the Spurs have a few ineffective lineups. The bad news is that most of them included Richard Jefferson, now with Golden State. San Antonio's bench won't be as much of a factor as it was in the regular season, but they'll still run the Thunder's subs off the floor when they're matched up. And that Big 3 that has played just four minutes per game together this season will get closer to 20 minutes of family time a night in this series.
Pick: Spurs in 5
NBA FINALS
(2) Heat vs. (1) Spurs
Season: Heat 1-0
Power Rankings: Spurs 109.2, Heat 104.6
Accuscore: Spurs 53%, Heat 47%
If you haven't figured this out by now, I'm all-in on San Antonio. The Spurs' best players are in far better shape physically than anybody else's, their bench is kicking serious butt, they can match up any big, small or anything in between, and they've taken steps to address their biggest shortcoming, defending post-up 4s.
Statistically, the lineup data backs the Spurs, too. San Antonio's Big 3, when on the court together, has actually been even more effective than Miami's. The same applies when only two of the three stars share the floor.
And they're still gaining steam. The Spurs outscored opponents by over 15 points per game over the final 20; what stands out about that is that they were resting their best players heavily in that stretch and still destroyed all comers. They're 21-2 in their past 23 games; one of the two losses was a game against Utah in which they opted not to play their three stars. If New York or L.A. had a stretch like this it would break the Internet but because it's San Antonio hardly anyone is discussing it.
So, yes, I expect the Spurs to win it all. But let me offer solace for fans of the other 15 teams: It's been a while since I got this right. Strange stuff can and will happen during the next two months, and that's the best part of the playoffs.
Nonetheless, the odds say that we'll have fiesta No. 5 on the Riverwalk this June.
Pick: Spurs in 6
So it is written, so shall it be
Not a bad pick IMHO
I'm surprised he has us winning every series in 5 games until the Finals. Maybe I'm just being cautiously conservative in my own predictions.
Gotta realize how statistically hard we've raped teams all season. Additionally, it's only gotten better as we became healthier/traded RJ here at the end. Considering Hollinger's formulas and general mindset, he really has no choice but to pick the Spurs and assert they will dominate. Otherwise he looks stupid.
the loss to the heat in the regular season, we were up +20pts in the first half....only to go cold in the 2nd half where they beat us by a margin
that number about the spurs big 3 outscoring teams more than the heat big 3 is pretty awesome. wow. go spurs.
Lets hope the metrics do not lie as on paper Spurs should roll through the West at least.
Seriously with the way the season ending, the Spurs literally blowing out every team they played, you would have to strive hard to bring up reasons NOT to pick the Spurs to win it all.
The experts who still have the Spurs losing to Memphis or OKC are going out on a limb tbh.
Hollinger has sucked lately
The Spurs definitely look more like the real deal this year.
quote of the season
Cue everyone loving Hollinger.
Seriously though, he's picking the Spurs because the Spurs are first in his power rankings ... not because he actually likes 'em. He just likes for his formulas to be right, tbh.
Good write-up, though
I hope this all comes true.
This. There are few basketball analysts more full of themselves than Hollinger. Let's go one step at the time, first the Jazz on Sunday.
man i really hope he is right.
Kurt Rambis just went all in on the Spurs for about 5 min on Espn right now.
The black anchor predictably tried to talk him off his message, predictably.
Meh...games are played on the court, not on paper or in a computer. I like the Spurs chances, but the games have to be played.
When the "experts" pick against their team they are reviled by fans, and when they make a meaningless plug for their team they are revered.
I just hope Pop doesn't shorten up the rotations too much...got to dance with the one who brought you. More Tiago and Diaw over Blair against the Jazz, but that is about it.
I agree with his prediction about the Finals.
Spurs vs. Heat with the Spurs winning in 6.
Hmmm...dunno exactly why the race card needed to be played but I saw that as well. Rambis seemed really hyped on us and did his best to set the record straight on us being a fun team to watch with only a reputation of being boring. He stressed that point which was nice. To be fair though he was only picking us to win the west, he didnt give his finals pick. Nice to see the theory that people with actual basketball knowledge like the Spurs be reinforced.
Thats what I just picked in a playoff bracket pool myselfI agree with his prediction about the Finals.
Spurs vs. Heat with the Spurs winning in 6.
I figure Spurs win 1 and 2, take one in Miami, and wrap it up at home in Game 6
Could you post the entire article? I'd like to read the whole thing.
Yup...WWLWLW...Thats what I just picked in a playoff bracket pool myself
I figure Spurs win 1 and 2, take one in Miami, and wrap it up at home in Game 6
Yeah, Lollinger can't throw his rating & statistics to the thrash bin, he has to stick to it and predict us as the champ, whether it's really his gut feeling & favorite or not.
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