Reply With Quote
I hope the Spurs beat their ass on their home-court.
THE DANGER OF STATISTICS
As the years go along, the NBA is being flooded by more and more statistics. Not that long ago, advanced basketball stats were obscure. , even simple plus/minus numbers weren't widely available until about five years ago.
With NBA teams factoring statistics into their gameplans more than ever, it's fascinating to see how statistical trends impact the way NBA coaches manage games. Personally, while I think stats have their place, I believe they should be used cautiously. Small sample sizes run rampant in the game of basketball and you can end up chasing numerical ghosts if you don't know what you're doing.
After two games of the 2012 Western Conference Finals, I'm convinced that Scott Brooks doesn't know what he's doing. His rotations have obviously been handled in a way that attempted to ride the wave of previous trends that had emerged during prior matchups between the Spurs and the Thunder.
As I've previously noted, the Thunder had a lot of success in the regular season against the Spurs when using small ball. When using lineups consisting of two bigmen, Oklahoma City was dominated by San Antonio. The numbers from the regular season: the Thunder were +19 with small ball lineups and -27 in big ball lineups.
Prior to Game 1, Brooks was obviously made aware of those numbers and tried to cash in by playing small ball for nearly 29 minutes. However, the strategy backfired as the Thunder posted a plus/minus of -10 during their small ball minutes. It turned out that his big ball lineups were better in Game 1. In less than 20 minutes, big ball produced a +7 for the Thunder.
Fast forward to Game 2 and Brooks changed his entire rotation again to chase the latest statistical trend. He went with big ball for practically the entire first 30 minutes of the game. Once more, chasing the trend was unsuccessful. When Brooks finally went back to trying small ball -- an alignment he leaned on all season -- the Thunder were down by 20 points.
This is a classic case of a coach not understanding the danger of statistical trends that are based on small sample sizes. He should have never overhauled his strategy coming into the series based on three regular season games. It was even worse to go to the opposite extreme based on one playoff game.
Great coaches know that the goal should be to maximize your own team's efficiency on both ends of the court. If statistical trends develop over 20 or 30 games, then perhaps it's time to consider a change. In a playoff series, adjustments are needed -- but those adjustments should consider only the here and now. Going into a game with the idea of backward coaching in an attempt to piggyback onto something that was statistically successful earlier will usually result in the ultimate realization that you were actually chasing fluke statistical variance.
All that said, as a Spurs fan, I hope you keep chasing those ghosts, Scott Brooks. Please keep doing what you're doing.
LINEUP CHESS MATCH 2.0
In 29:31 minutes of big ball during Game 2, the Spurs outscored the Thunder 77-53. That's a staggering difference that extrapolates to 125-86 over the course of a game. Considering that the Spurs struggled against big ball in Game 1, that was fantastic to see. No longer does San Antonio have to wonder if they can score versus that alignment.
In Game 2, it was the Thunder's small ball lineups that hurt the Spurs. In 18:29 of small ball, OKC outscored SA 58-43. Offensively, the Spurs were still fine against small ball (that's a pace of 112 points per game). Where it killed them in Game 2 was on defense. Allowing 58 points in 18:29 extrapolates to 150 points over 48 minutes. That type of defense won't get it done, to put it kindly.
As the teams head into Game 3, should the Spurs be concerned about the Thunder's small ball lineup? It's difficult to be too concerned. The Spurs have faced OKC's small ball for 47:23 this series and have scored 118 points during that time, which is obviously a healthy amount of points.
While the Spurs were porous defensively against that alignment in Game 2, there were extenuating cir stances. The Thunder were in a desperate, run-and-gun mode for much of the final quarter and a half -- an unsustainable model over an entire game. OKC also went to the free throw line a ton during that time.
Personally, I remain relatively unconcerned with the Thunder utilizing a lot of small ball. The Spurs can score against it and their defense has a good chance of holding the Thunder to at least around a pace of 100 points per game, which will likely be enough considering the success the Spurs should be having on the other end.
FIXING THE LITTLE THINGS
Even though the Spurs won Game 2, they weren't very good at taking care of the little things.
1. Turnovers. The Spurs turned it over 14 -- an acceptable amount. However, the Spurs only forced ten turnovers. Considering that the Thunder are the most turnover-prone team in basketball, there's really no excuse to lose the turnover battle.
2. Rebounding. The Spurs grabbed only 67.3% of the available defensive rebounds in Game 2. That is much too low. During the regular season, the Spurs had a defensive rebounding percentage of 76% -- the top mark in the NBA. Since the league average against the Thunder was 72.2% in the regular season, the Spurs should really never be lower than that number.
3. Transition defense. The Thunder scored 26 fast break points on Tuesday night. In the regular season, they only averaged 16.3 fast break points. The Spurs need to do a much better job of forcing OKC to score in their halfcourt sets.
4. Free throws. The Spurs allowed the Thunder to post a ridiculous .409 FTA/FGA in Game 2. The Thunder averaged .333 FTA/FGA in the regular season, while the Spurs allowed only .221. San Antonio has to be much more judicial about their fouls. They simply can't afford any loose ball fouls or away from the action fouls against this team. To win on the road, the Spurs are probably going to have to hold the Thunder to less than .300 FTA/FGA.
Fix those little things and the Spurs would force the Thunder to play a near perfect game to get a win.
HOME SWEET HOME
The Thunder are 5-0 at home during the playoffs, winning by an average margin of 10.2 points. During the regular season, they were a very respectable 26-7 at home.
Since Oklahoma City is a young squad, it's no surprise that they play much better in front of their home fans. During the regular season, they averaged 100.1 points on the road but 106 points at home. Their three-point shooting goes through the roof -- from 33.2% to 38.4%.
Of their Big 3, Harden is the one who plays much better at home. Serge Ibaka also sees a large boost in his stats playing in OKC. Virtually all of their role players shoot better.
KEYS TO VICTORY
-Sustain the early run. The Thunder will come out breathing fire. The Oklahoma City fans are rabid. It's safe to say they are enjoying their new toy. Be ready for the early run. Withstand it.
-Keep pushing it. Historically, the Spurs have made it a priority to slow down the pace when playing on the road. But everything points to these Spurs playing their best when the pace is elevated. As long as San Antonio is playing good transition defense, there's really no such thing as too fast with this team.
-Maximize depth. The Spurs are unquestionably the deeper team. During the guts of the game, if the Spurs can get quality minutes from their bench players, that will allow the closing lineup to retain more gas for the final push.
-Trust the process. As long as the game is close in the fourth quarter, the Spurs should like their chances. They've been able to score late in games virtually every time they've needed a basket. If it comes down to a battle of execution in the fourth, San Antonio should have the advantage.
-Keep doing what you're doing. While the winning streak isn't important, the fewer games the Spurs can play in these playoffs, the better. It'd really be a shame to let OKC run away with a victory. Giving this Thunder team any sort of life is dangerous. Very dangerous.
Come out focused and be prepared for the most difficult challenge yet.
Live in the moment.
Believe.
I hope the Spurs beat their ass on their home-court.
To think I ever though SR was a good Spurs forum.
Nice writeup
Nice timvp - your dedication is superb
As I envision game three as most guys do, OKC will be on fire in the 1st and spurs would have to fight back to have a chance, push push push and take the lead in the 4th.
Important thing at the begining for the spurs is to limit the turnovers as much as possible to the degree of making it a slow mud pace. Concentrate on D and hit board like crazy /if we do not need transition in 1st. As I can see it.
Let's see how Pop gonna figure it out.
Thunder are an emotional team. Let's get them down and screw their heads with diferent tempos. If the spurs can make a leak in their heads and fill it with doubts. Make the spurs team invincible. And ultimate sweepers!
Spurs have good chance.
Of course that's optimistic. The spurs still need to play this game. And the spurs sometimes have a let down games.
Absolutely important will be for our team will be how TD handle inside game.
Overall we need inside presents now when OKC gonna play more athletic small ball.
I see Sefolosha getting more minutes. /Possible they will change starting lineup - it's important for a young team to have something they can feed of - changing a linup is one of the things/
B4 the series started I did not knew what to expect, but I was hoping the spurs can end it in 5 and my dream is to sweep the Thunder.
Frankly IMO even when the spurs gonna sweep all thye playoffs I don't know if they gonna get the props they deserve/?/
I foresee a big game from Timmy. I also expect the Thunder to come out scorching hot. Hope we can weather the storm.
Great job. The quality of your writeups surpass anything on ESPN or CNNSI. Easily.
That's an understatement. I don't even read ESPN nor CNNSI.
I only read LJ's writeups..
Good writeup. I think the Spurs really need to work on improving the little things. OKC is a good windup for the Finals as far as the importance of limiting live ball turnovers.
Damn, your points hit bulls eye. I agree with everything you said basically if we play at least good in all those categories it will demand perfect play from OKC.
I'm waiting to see if Blair gets some minutes should things go awry instead of Bonner. I could be imagining things, but I think Blair looks slimmer on the bench (maybe it's his current haircut). Maybe he's been putting the work in to slim down the past 40 days or so (David Thorpe on a Hornets podcast last week mentioned that Blair had put back on 30-40 pounds since his draft, and we can all see it).
I'm thinking Blair because
A. He's had some very good games against OKC in OKC
B. Bonner has problems getting his shot off and rebounding at home so much that I can see him being a huge disaster in front of that crazy crowd.
Blair can be a monkey wrench in OKC's plans of switching everything on smallball, provided he's not too fat to jump for rebounds or dunk like he was most of the year.
Could just be a feverdream of mine though.
The way Scott Brooks doing his coaching job, i expect this line up will see A LOT of action tonite:
Ibaka
Durant
Sefolosha
Harden
Westbrook
bench:
Collison, Fisher, Cook
And OKC big three will play no less than 40+ minutes each. Perkins will only play token minutes (i really hope TD will make the best of it).
Can't wait!!
For the Spurs, even though being up 2-0 we still have a lot of room for improvement, we haven't played a flawless 48 minutes yet. Just like TimVP stated, turnovers, rebounding, transition D and free throw shooting could all be improved upon. We're up 2-0 despite lacking in those area's. That's a good sign. Hopefully we can keep improving, we're on a good streak but i don't think we've peaked yet. Scary
I really believe this is a key game (not that every other playoff game isn't but you know what I mean). If the Thunder are going to win a game it's going to be this one. They need that boost from their home court to get their confidence going, if the Spurs can withstand the surge and get this win, I have no doubt a sweep could be in order!
Good thoughts. As long as they don't get down too big early on they've got a shot.
i think pop is going to hack someone in these away games
man, if i start a local baskeball team here, can i hire you as an assitant? i heard some relatives of yours were argentine. you could hang around here, get to meet the country.
I think this is absolutely key.
It did not happen in game 3 of the semifinals. Yeah they overcame it. But not sure they can against the Thunder.
Spurs should win this game but like many here I fell this game will be a very important one and the hardest of the two OKC games for the spurs.
The Spurs are finally feeling some adversity despite winning both games since the Thunder are their toughest opponent so far. I actually feel this could end up being the NBA Finals.
I love it when the Spurs play on the road in the playoffs against a team with a rabid fan base. This should be the most hostile crowd since Hornets '08. Looking forward to seeing how the Spurs handle it.
no need to see any statistics. spurs probably have a -3 underdog spread in game 3. don't even need to look up the odds.
I agree and it has been lasting for years.
Thank you !
-Sustain the early run. The Thunder will come out breathing fire. The Oklahoma City fans are rabid. It's safe to say they are enjoying their new toy. Be ready for the early run. Withstand it.
True, the Thunder fans are by far the best fans in the NBA. College atmosphere, the remind me of fans at Cameron Indoor, with the way the scream the whole game. Wish SA had those fans.
That said, these Spurs seem to flourish away from home, they seem to take great pleasure in quieting the home crowds. (what is their record on road lately, something like 22 of last 27 or something?)
Like you sad, the Thunder are going to be pumped up and loaded for bear starting out, so SA needs to withstand that initial energy burst and stay within let's say 6-9 points in first half. If they can do that, then I think when Thunder see that the Spurs are close to even in the game in the 3rd Q, they will start to push some and start making mistakes that SA will take advantage of and grab the lead that they will not relinquish.
I say Spurs win game 110-101
I'm positive they can't overcome that against the Thunder.
Luckily, I feel good about Spurs chances of not being outscored 3:1 in the first quarter tonight.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
