Game 5 Preview: Hoping Time Stands Still

[timvp]

After the first two games of this series, I was extremely impressed with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Even though they lost, they illustrated uncommon chutzpah for a team so young. No matter what the Spurs threw at the Thunder, OKC came roaring back. Particularly in Game 2, the Spurs played as well as I've ever seen a Spurs team play offensively, yet there they were in the fourth quarter forcing the Spurs to sweat it out.

Fast forward two games and now I'm terrified by what I see. In rewatching Game 4 a couple times, one thing was abundantly clear: The Thunder are a championship quality team. The only thing between Oklahoma City and their first championship is time.

Coming into this series, while I respected the Thunder's talent, there were still plenty of s in the armor. Defensively, their rotations were inconsistent, especially late in the shot clock. Transition defense wasn't always as strength and they weren't good at stopping the ball at the point of attack. Offensively, although blessed with copious amounts of individual ability, the Thunder weren't a good passing team, turned the ball over a lot and their role players weren't offensive threats. In other words, OKC was beatable.

Unfortunately for the Spurs, those weaknesses are vanishing before our very eyes as the Thunder metamorphize into the juggernaut they hoped was still a year or two away. Those inconsistent rotations have been replaced by a relentless pursuing defense that fully utilizing their team's infinite length. The Thunder have slowed San Antonio's running ways by getting back on D and they've found solutions (namely alternating defenders on Tony Parker and switching pick-and-rolls involving Manu Ginobili) to force the Spurs into secondary sets.

On offense, we've witness even more eye-catching maturity. In the regular season, the Thunder were last in the league in assists and first in turnovers. The last two games, Oklahoma City has 50 assists and only 21 turnovers. For a team that averaged 18.5 assists and 16.4 turnovers, that's an unfathomable about-face, especially to occur in the Western Conference Finals.

As for why it's happening all of a sudden, it's rather simple: Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden are figuring out how to play a winning brand of basketball. Previously, the Thunder were basically a team that had three superstars who took turns carrying the load. It was a your-turn, my-turn type offense. But over the last two games, the Thunder have started to mold all their talents together to form one multipronged offensive attack.

It's no accident that OKC's role players are now flourishing. When Durant, Westbrook and Harden drive into the lane, they're suddenly just as dangerous with the pass as they are with the shot. Even just a couple weeks ago, that simply was not the case.

As for the Spurs, what do you do against a team that is growing by leaps and bounds right before your eyes? The coaching staff can tweak the defense a bit. Each individual can try to bring even more desperation to that end of the court. But, at the end of the day, San Antonio is in the unenviable position of relying on hope. If the Thunder keep improving and reach the absolute apex of their potential, this Spurs team simply can't beat them. San Antonio simply lacks the defense wherewithal to handle that monster. Needless to say, hopefully that doesn't happen. Hopefully the Thunder hit a speed bump or two before reaching their ceiling.

Thankfully, there is reason to believe those hopes will become reality. First of all, maturation typically doesn't happen this fast in the NBA. Learning to win championships takes a lot of time, effort and heartache. Maybe the Thunder will be able to flip the switch from the league's most isolation-heavy offense to a well-oiled machine in mid-flight -- but that's not usually how it works.

Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, the Spurs having homecourt advantage in two of the final three games is huge. Being a young team, it's no surprise that the Thunder played with a tremendous amount of juice in front of their ravenous home crowd. And while they've already been road warriors in earlier rounds in these playoffs, their role players would be hard-pressed to duplicate their Game 4 performances in the AT&T Center.

(An interesting note regarding homecourt dominance: The four teams still alive in the playoffs are a combined 28-2 at home during the postseason. That's an ungodly winning percentage of .933; let us hope that trend continues Monday night.)

In Game 5, I really think the main key is to get back to playing the freewheeling type of basketball that powered the 20-game winning streak. Smart, crisp passes. Hart cuts to the basket. Fearless shooting. Run. Run. And more running. Use the crowd's energy to fuel the attack and never let up. We know the Thunder are going to keep charging forward so there can't be any type of lull in the action.

It's going to test the Spurs to their core. We must hope the Thunder will halt their evolution for the time being while believing in the Spurs ability to get back to their winning formula.




POP'S QUIZ

The players aren't the only ones who have a lot on their plate. Pop is facing, in my opinion, the most challenging game of his coaching career. The Spurs have been in bigger games but this is the first time Pop has coached a game of this magnitude without a superstar version of Tim Duncan to fall back on. Pop's answers to the following questions could very well decide whether or not the Spurs live to see another round.

Should Manu Ginobili start?
Personally, I think Pop should give Danny Green one more half. If Green struggles in his first stint in Game 5, Ginobili should start the second half and the remaining games in this series. Either way, Ginobili needs to play more than 30 minutes on Monday night.

Should Tiago Splitter or Matt Bonner play?
Ever since the Thunder began to switch pick-and-rolls, Splitter has been taken completely out of the series. That said, I still want to see him in Game 5. He's too good and has played too well to go away from him now. At least give Splitter a chance. As for Bonner, no. Just no. No.

Should DeJuan Blair be in the rotation?
I loved the spark Blair provided in Game 4 but I don't think Pop should automatically turn to him going forward. If the Spurs are struggling or getting out-muscled in the paint, then Blair makes sense. But if things are humming along, keep Blair on the sideline.

Should the Spurs show the OKC's role players more respect?
It's difficult to say that Serge Ibaka should continue to be given open jumpers after we watched him go 11-for-11 in Game 4 ... but I think that's what the Spurs have to live with. To have a prayer of slowing down their Big 3, the Spurs have to sag off of their role players. If OKC's bigs go 22-for-25 two more times in this series, you shake their hands and wish them luck in the Finals.

Should the Spurs throw double-teams at Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter?
I'm torn. On one hand, doing so would create open shots for Durant's teammates. On the other hand, Durant is someone who can beat you by himself down the stretch of a game. Considering he's been very good on the road in the playoffs, I think Pop should have those double-teams ready to go if Durant heats up again.

Should Pop overhaul the offense?
No. Even though a number of Spurs struggled in Game 4 on the offensive end, the team as a whole still scored at a rate of 112 points per 100 possessions -- a very, very healthy rate. I believe Pop should just bank on more players performing better. The only real adjustment I want to see is for Pop to make it a point for this team to run as much as possible. The quicker the overall pace, the better chances the Spurs have to win.

[Cow Eye]

1. I agree Danny Green should be given another half. If he blows it, then I wouldn't mind seeing Manu play the entire second half with a marginal amount of rest. What did he have in game 4, about 25 minutes?

2. Matt Bonner should not play, but Tiago should be given a quarter to see how he responds. If he keeps being a pussy, yank his ass.

3. Yes, imho.

4. Yes, of course. I'm kinda getting tired of this "new team's" reluctance to commit to being defensive oriented.

5. I think if he knocks down two in a row, in rhythm, in the fourth quarter, they should immediately start doubling.

6. I agree, no. 2 losses isn't enough to just junk everything they've worked with for the entire season. I think adjusting the entire offense might stand to do more harm than good considering the players are already used to things at this point. I just hope it doesn't bite them in the ass...

[Andthentherewas21]

Well put, now we just hope the Spurs come out and play with a purpose tonight.

As far as Green is concerned, I think you give him his usual 4-6 before you bring in Manu and see how he is on both sides of the floor. If hes productive on both, or at least disruptive on D and none factor on offense I think you live with it. If hes neither, I think you've got to burn Manu more (though foul trouble can always get in the way of that)

Same thing with Splitter. Give him his usual sub into the game, but if he can't be productive on both sides of the floor, you've got to switch him out and give Blair a chance. Bonner shouldn't step foot in the At&t center, but if he does chances are he gets playing time so pray for a sandwich past its prime in the next 16 hours.

Still i think with the home crowd and enough effort, the Spurs have a good chance tonight.

[spursparker9]

Any chances that Bonner will not be playing scared at home?

[100%duncan]

Don't put Parker or Manu on Durant in crunch time when Kawhi and Jax are in the floor.

[racm]

Pace, pace, pace. One of the reasons OKC drew even was slowing down the game.

Another note: the non big 3 Thunder players combined for 23 points the last time they were on the road. That's fewer points than how much Serge Ibaka scored.

[Russo21]

Any chances that Bonner will not be playing scared at home?

no

[Slippy]

It's difficult to say that Serge Ibaka should continue to be given open jumpers after we watched him go 11-for-11 in Game 4... but I think that's what the Spurs have to live with

If the Spurs had a guy on their team catch fire going 11 for 11 they would of won game 4

Why chance it? Hope on the defensive side wont get the Spurs far. Stops will.

At the least put a hand in face and be prepared for the drive. Have a guy with the ability to recover soon enough guarding Ibaka. He probably will miss a few playing away from home but he has well and truly proven he can sink the open jump-shot .

[MoSpur]

What about playing a zone defense from time to time? Wouldn't that make if difficult for OKC to drive into the lane? Force them to take outside shots?

[Russ]

You hit the nail right on the head, timvp. Great analysis.

There's one thing that might get the Spurs through this, Manu Ginobili.

The last time the Spurs were playing a team we weren't sure they could beat they also went up 2-0. Then they also lost the next two. Defending NBA champ Detroit, 2005.

Manu took over as the series wore on the and the Spurs used HCA to win in 7.

(Of course, they also needed Horry in Game 5. The closest thing they have to a clutch 3-point shooter now is Gary Neal. Does Neal win it tonight?)

[DarrinS]

No 4 down
No Bonner
Minimize turnovers

[MmP]

Look how we are all in the Blair bandwagon all of the sudden.
Go spurs go.

[DarrinS]

And if Parker starts getting hot, maybe Westbrook can be punked into playing a more selfish brand of basketball. An OKC team that shares the ball is a scary thing to behold.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Don't put Parker..... on Durant in crunch time when Kawhi and Jax are in the floor.

yeah. I didn't understand why that crap was happening so much Saturday.

[Mugen]

Pretty much timvp's most optimistic way of saying "Spurs are ed."

[Jimcs50]

I think our shooters need to have Robert Horry's at ude and just not care if they make the shot. They are trying too hard. Just let the open 3s fly.

[Keepin' it real]

Should the Spurs throw double-teams at Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter?
I'm torn. On one hand, doing so would create open shots for Durant's teammates. On the other hand, Durant is someone who can beat you by himself down the stretch of a game. Considering he's been very good on the road in the playoffs, I think Pop should have those double-teams ready to go if Durant heats up again.

Let Durant get his. Focus on stopping everyone else.

[MR-Clutch]

More pick n pops for Duncan(Duncan shoot, instead of hesitating).

Let Kawhi soak up bonners minutes.

find playing time for blair.

[Russo21]

Go the en san antonio spurs. Gonna be a big one. Could be the game that etches the history books as to who the 2012 champions might be. Gonna be HUGE. I want the home crowd to be absolutely Thunderous ala utah jazz home crowd in the 90s. Let's rain a storm on the Thunder and show them what spurs basketball is really like. Let's show them we have the best fans in the league and can be as loud and daunting as any other fanbase in the association . GO THE EN SPURS GO SPURS GO!! Massive en game

[MR-Clutch]

LETS GO SPURS!!

[Russo21]

This one is on the players, the coaches, the fans in the building, and for fans watching on tv on every continent on the globe who cant do anything but scream and yell at the TV. Let's do it for all of us/them. GO SPURS GO Show some passion and fire. I want every spur fan in the at & t centre to cheer extra hard and extra loud for us unfortunate fans who cant get to the game. Basketball is a team game all the way from the players and coaches, to the fans in the building and fans around the world. Go the san antonio spurs!! I want to see the nuttiest crowd at the AT&T centre i've ever seen. Help get our beloved spurs over the line and Rock the out of the AT&T centre!!

[Basketball Power]

So timvp is saying the thunder are a better team and only a miracle can help the spurs win




Great

[jiggy_55]

POP'S QUIZ

The players aren't the only ones who have a lot on their plate. Pop is facing, in my opinion, the most challenging game of his coaching career. The Spurs have been in bigger games but this is the first time Pop has coached a game of this magnitude without a superstar version of Tim Duncan to fall back on. Pop's answers to the following questions could very well decide whether or not the Spurs live to see another round.

Should Manu Ginobili start?
Personally, I think Pop should give Danny Green one more half. If Green struggles in his first stint in Game 5, Ginobili should start the second half and the remaining games in this series. Either way, Ginobili needs to play more than 30 minutes on Monday night.

Should Tiago Splitter or Matt Bonner play?
Ever since the Thunder began to switch pick-and-rolls, Splitter has been taken completely out of the series. That said, I still want to see him in Game 5. He's too good and has played too well to go away from him now. At least give Splitter a chance. As for Bonner, no. Just no. No.

Should DeJuan Blair be in the rotation?
I loved the spark Blair provided in Game 4 but I don't think Pop should automatically turn to him going forward. If the Spurs are struggling or getting out-muscled in the paint, then Blair makes sense. But if things are humming along, keep Blair on the sideline.

Should the Spurs show the OKC's role players more respect?
It's difficult to say that Serge Ibaka should continue to be given open jumpers after we watched him go 11-for-11 in Game 4 ... but I think that's what the Spurs have to live with. To have a prayer of slowing down their Big 3, the Spurs have to sag off of their role players. If OKC's bigs go 22-for-25 two more times in this series, you shake their hands and wish them luck in the Finals.

Should the Spurs throw double-teams at Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter?
I'm torn. On one hand, doing so would create open shots for Durant's teammates. On the other hand, Durant is someone who can beat you by himself down the stretch of a game. Considering he's been very good on the road in the playoffs, I think Pop should have those double-teams ready to go if Durant heats up again.

Should Pop overhaul the offense?
No. Even though a number of Spurs struggled in Game 4 on the offensive end, the team as a whole still scored at a rate of 112 points per 100 possessions -- a very, very healthy rate. I believe Pop should just bank on more players performing better. The only real adjustment I want to see is for Pop to make it a point for this team to run as much as possible. The quicker the overall pace, the better chances the Spurs have to win.

1. Keep Manu on the bench, I fully expect Green to get back on track at home and after a rough patch.

2. Splitter no doubt.

3. Sure, Pop should give him just a few minutes in the 1st half and see how he responds. If he's aggressive, rebounding, and making smart decisions he's ten times the player Bonner is.

4. Nope, Ibaka and Perkins simply can't shoot that well again. It's almost impossible.

5. If he gets hot, yes get the ball out of his hands or try to deny him the ball completely without doubling.

6. Nope, get back to run and gun like we did in games 1 & 2.

[jiggy_55]

After the first two games of this series, I was extremely impressed with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Even though they lost, they illustrated uncommon chutzpah for a team so young. No matter what the Spurs threw at the Thunder, OKC came roaring back. Particularly in Game 2, the Spurs played as well as I've ever seen a Spurs team play offensively, yet there they were in the fourth quarter forcing the Spurs to sweat it out.

Hmmm timvp, don't you think the same can be said about the Spurs in Game 4? Durant was on fire in the 4th, Ibaka had the 2nd best shooting night in playoff history, Perkins was on his way to scoring a season high, and yet the Spurs were right there in the 4th and cut the lead to four points a few times before they finally knocked them out. On the other hand, Parker and Manu were struggling, as were role players like Green and others. I think we have more than enough to win the series even with the Thunder's improvements in games 3 & 4.

I'm confident in the Spurs ability and game plan, and I'm confident someone like Green is going to get going in which will be a major x-factor tonight. Green is going to get a lot of open looks and he's going to start burying them tonight. I do believe we're winning tonight's game and the series.

[elbamba]

POP'S QUIZ

The players aren't the only ones who have a lot on their plate. Pop is facing, in my opinion, the most challenging game of his coaching career. The Spurs have been in bigger games but this is the first time Pop has coached a game of this magnitude without a superstar version of Tim Duncan to fall back on. Pop's answers to the following questions could very well decide whether or not the Spurs live to see another round.

Should Manu Ginobili start?
Personally, I think Pop should give Danny Green one more half. If Green struggles in his first stint in Game 5, Ginobili should start the second half and the remaining games in this series. Either way, Ginobili needs to play more than 30 minutes on Monday night.

Should Tiago Splitter or Matt Bonner play?
Ever since the Thunder began to switch pick-and-rolls, Splitter has been taken completely out of the series. That said, I still want to see him in Game 5. He's too good and has played too well to go away from him now. At least give Splitter a chance. As for Bonner, no. Just no. No.

Should DeJuan Blair be in the rotation?
I loved the spark Blair provided in Game 4 but I don't think Pop should automatically turn to him going forward. If the Spurs are struggling or getting out-muscled in the paint, then Blair makes sense. But if things are humming along, keep Blair on the sideline.

Should the Spurs show the OKC's role players more respect?
It's difficult to say that Serge Ibaka should continue to be given open jumpers after we watched him go 11-for-11 in Game 4 ... but I think that's what the Spurs have to live with. To have a prayer of slowing down their Big 3, the Spurs have to sag off of their role players. If OKC's bigs go 22-for-25 two more times in this series, you shake their hands and wish them luck in the Finals.

Should the Spurs throw double-teams at Kevin Durant in the fourth quarter?
I'm torn. On one hand, doing so would create open shots for Durant's teammates. On the other hand, Durant is someone who can beat you by himself down the stretch of a game. Considering he's been very good on the road in the playoffs, I think Pop should have those double-teams ready to go if Durant heats up again.

Should Pop overhaul the offense?
No. Even though a number of Spurs struggled in Game 4 on the offensive end, the team as a whole still scored at a rate of 112 points per 100 possessions -- a very, very healthy rate. I believe Pop should just bank on more players performing better. The only real adjustment I want to see is for Pop to make it a point for this team to run as much as possible. The quicker the overall pace, the better chances the Spurs have to win.

Believe

FIFY. You can't jinx the team now.